Tag: SSP Senate Race Ratings

In the wake of Ted Stevens’ indictment on seven felony counts today, SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Leans Republican” to a “Tossup“.

Of all the races on our Lean R list, Alaska (along with Mississippi) was always the most ripe for moving to tossup, and Stevens’ indictment was more than enough dynamite to erase many of the advantages of his 40 years of incumbency.

While it might be tempting to shift this race into the Democratic column, our move to tossup reflects the extremely unsettled nature of this race as things stand today. Stevens may or may not survive his primary; even if he does, he could legally be replaced. He could even choose to resign before then, although Uncle Ted does not seem to be the sort of fallen pol who’s willing to slink off quietly into the night.

And while it does certainly feel as though Mark Begich has just been given an important boost, we feel it’s important to have more information in front of us before we make any further changes.

UPDATE: AK Gov. Sarah Palin says she is not interested in replacing Stevens.

Safe D:

     VA (Open)

Races to Watch:  

     GA (Chambliss)

     KS (Roberts)

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     TX (Cornyn)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

Virginia (Open): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Under the rubric we use, if a race is in a “likely” category, that means “an upset cannot be completely ruled out.” We no longer think an upset is imaginable in Virginia under any reasonably foreseeable circumstances. Mark Warner is still wildly popular while Jim Gilmore’s name is mud. Warner has a 44-to-1 cash advantage while Gilmore barely eked out a win at a party convention his supporters had orchestrated to favor him. Obama now leads by three in a state that Kerry lost by more than eight. Oh, and Warner himself, who has never led by less than twenty, has now staked out a nearly thirty-point advantage.

Obviously in politics, anything is possible. A hidden scandal could always destroy a candidate at the last minute. But such unknowns can’t factor into race ratings – if they did, no race could ever go into the “safe” category. What’s more, Warner is a highly skilled politician who is adept at playing it safe; he is probably among the least likely to get ambushed by a late-breaking surprise. If he were to somehow lose at this point, it would be one of the biggest shockers in political history. But we feel quite confident that nothing like that is going to happen, and that Warner will cruise to victory.

New Mexico (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

Democrats, already in the driver’s seat here, got an added boost when winger Steve Pearce narrowly edged out “moderate” Heather Wilson for the GOP senate nomination. And the more New Mexico gets to know Steve Pearce, the less it seems they like him – Tom Udall is about thirty points ahead in the latest polling. And it’s more than shown in fundraising, where Udall now has five times what Pearce has on hand. What’s more, NRSC chief John Ensign all but admitted his commimttee was writing off this race. There’s no question that Udall has a strong lead here now.

New Hampshire (Sununu): Tossup to Lean Democratic

Jeanne Shaheen has staked out a remarkably consistent ten-point lead in New Hampshire, leading many to ask if John Sununu is this cycle’s Rick Santorum. We think it’s certainly starting to look that way. No Republican, it appears, has ever come back from such a large deficit with this little time left on the clock. Sununu’s biggest advantage right now is that he’s the most endangered GOP incumbent, which means he’s first on the NRSC’s list of priorities. That’s not a place any Republican really wants to be, but it means that Shaheen can’t afford to let up, despite the advantages she now has.

Colorado (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

This race is not as clear-cut as, say, New Hampshire, but we no longer feel that it’s a true tossup. It looks as though recent unrelenting attacks on Bob Schaffer have taken their toll, giving Mark Udall nine- and ten-point leads in four consecutive polls. Colorado, like Virginia, is another state that Kerry lost but where Obama shows a lot of promise. (And of course, we have our convention there.) However, Schaffer is pretty competitive in the cash department, and the NRSC hasn’t yet bailed here. Nonetheless, it’s hard to say that his chances of victory are equal to Udall’s, hence our change.

Oregon (Smith): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Jeff Merkley won a tough primary contest back in May and then went on to post far better fundraising numbers in the second quarter than he ever had before. His polling trend line looks good, and Obama has had consistent ten-point leads here. Gordon Smith’s “moderate” image still holds a lot of power, though, and he’s squeezing every advantage out of his incumbency. Merkley has a lot more work to do here, but this race is starting to get closer.

Georgia (Chambliss): Safe Republican to Races to Watch

If two things happen here, this race might go from snoozer to potentially, maybe, possibly interesting: First, Jim Martin needs to win the August 5th Democratic run-off and second, Barack Obama needs to follow through on his plan to register a half a million new black voters in Georgia. If, however, the Bush-loving walking train-wreck that is Vernon Jones is the Democratic nominee, then this will still be a race to watch – but for all the wrong reasons.

Voter Consumer Research for Mitch McConnell (6/15-17, likely voters, 5/21-22 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 39 (39)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50 (50)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This one comes a day after SurveyUSA released a poll showing Lunsford trailing McConnell by four points. McConnell’s camp pulled the exact same move in May after Rasmussen released a survey showing Lunsford beating McConnell by five.

However, one thing is clear: Mitch McConnell won’t be getting a free ride this year. Even McConnell’s own internals indicate that this race is closer than any election he’s faced since 1990. Lunsford, while hardly a darling of progressive Democrats, will be able to bring his own ample financial resources to the race so that McConnell will be pinned down at home. McConnell will have to navigate his re-election bid and his role as a steadfast champion of Bush’s unpopular policies in the Senate carefully.

With the polls starting to smile on Lunsford, SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican“. McConnell is a famously tenacious campaigner and is still heavily favored to win, but an upset is not outside the realm of possibility.

Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R
VA (Open)	LA (Landrieu) NM (Open)	CO (Open) NH (Sununu)	AK (Stevens) MN (Coleman) MS (Wicker) NC (Dole)	ME (Collins) OR (Smith)

Races to Watch:  

     KS (Roberts)

     KY (McConnell)

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     TX (Cornyn)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

Mississippi (Wicker): Likely Republican to Leans Republican

After former Mississippi AG Mike Moore passed on the race to replace retired Sen. Trent Lott, few were bullish on this contest as a Democratic pickup opportunity, even after former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove jumped into the fray. But recent polls suggest that Musgrove’s statewide profile is giving him an early advantage over interim Sen. Roger Wicker, who previously represented Northeast Mississippi in the House. Coupled with Barack Obama’s presence on the ballot energizing the state’s large African-American constituency (roughly 37% of the population), Musgrove picked the perfect year to try a statewide comeback. What’s more, the lack of party identification on the special election ballot could hurt Wicker with “low-information” GOP voters.

Still, Wicker’s huge early financial edge cannot be discounted, as it has allowed him to get on the airwaves early in order to raise his name recognition in Southern Mississippi. Wicker’s biggest weakness (his lack of a statewide profile) also represents room for growth.

This will be a tightly-watched contest, and it won’t be the GOP lock that some had assumed it’d be after Haley Barbour worked around the law to push the special election to November.

Civitas (5/14-17, registered voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 43

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±3.7)

First Rasmussen, then Public Policy Polling, then SurveyUSA, and now Civitas.  With four consecutive polls showing the North Carolina Senate race to be neck-and-neck, the Swing State Project is moving its rating of this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

Update: I forgot to mention the Research 2000 poll from late April that showed Hagan within 7 points of Dole.

SSP is moving NC-Sen from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Several factors contribute to this change:

1) Democrat Kay Hagan (who convincingly won her primary earlier this week) has done a good job raking in cash so far, raising $1.5 million since she got into the race, including $900K in the first quarter. She had to spend a lot of her warchest in her race against Jim Neal, but it looks like her fundraising will continue to be strong.

2) Democratic turnout rocked the house on Tuesday. In the most directly comparable races, the parallel gubernatorial primaries, the number of votes cast on the Dem side was almost three-and-a-half times greater than in the GOP contest. Of course, Dem turnout was likely to be greater given the presidential battle atop the ticket, but new Democratic voter registrations are far outstripping Republican registrations. There has also been a huge flux of new independent registrations, and early voting patterns show that indies overwhelmingly prefer Team Blue.

3) The Obama factor: Barack Obama almost certainly makes this state far more competitive than Hillary Clinton would have. We’re not saying Obama’s going to win NC, but it will be in play. And while Obama’s nomination has been inevitable for months, his grudging coronation by the tradmed finally allows him to focus on the general election. This is good news in the Tarheel State.

4) Finally, Liddy Dole’s polling is less than stellar. A Rasmussen poll a month ago put the race at 52-39, while a more recent Research 2000/DailyKos poll showed a tight 48-41 margin. Now that Hagan is past the primary, much like Obama, she can turn her attention to her Republican opponent.

SSP’s complete Senate race ratings are available here.

Safe D:

     VA (Open)

Races to Watch:  

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     SC (Graham)

     TX (Cornyn)

Last Updated: November 3, 2008 at 2:00 AM

Previous Ratings

Our rating system is patterned after the familiar seven-tier system used by fellow prognosticators such as CQ and Cook.  Here’s what we’ve got for the Senate race scene so far:

Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R
VA (Open)	LA (Landrieu) NM (Open)	CO (Open) NH (Sununu)	AK (Stevens) MN (Coleman)	ME (Collins) MS (Wicker) OR (Smith)

All other races are considered “safe” for the incumbent party. However, the following races are on SSP’s list of Races to Watch:

     KY (McConnell)

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     NC (Dole)

     OK (Inhofe)

     TX (Cornyn)

Any of these races could earn a competitive rating given the right series of events for the challengers.

Feel free to post your take in the comments.