Tag: GA-Sen

Man, we’re getting close to our goal. Check it out:

Who wants to put us over $2,000?

UPDATE (James): Wow! Your generosity has been staggering. Can we hit $2,100 by dawn?

UPDATE (David): Alright, Col. Sanders – proceed to LUDICROUS SPEED! Since we blew past $2,100 in little over a day, I now declare our new goal to be $3,000. Let’s go go go!

Six years ago, as the nascent liberal blogosphere first began to coalesce, one particular incident quickly became seared in our minds, forever to be a rallying cry – something we would never let go unanswered again. I’m speaking of Saxby Chambliss’s unthinkably odious ad in which he slurred Max Cleland by pairing the triple-amputee war hero with images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein:

I know you haven’t forgotten this grave offense – none of us have. That’s why I’ve put our goal thermometer right along side that ad, so that we can finally exact payback for this most outrageous and underhanded attack.

I’ll be honest: I didn’t think we’d see this day so soon. Georgia hasn’t exactly been fertile territory for Democrats in some time, and I figured Saxby would cruise to re-election. Fortunately, the political environment and the quality of our nominee have changed things dramatically. We need to seize this opportunity, to honor Max Cleland, to show that we won’t get bullied, and to send a great populist progressive like Jim Martin to the Senate.

We’ve already made awesome progress toward our goal in just twenty-four hours. But time is running very, very short. Barely more than three weeks remain until election day. Please give now.

Check this shit out. Insider Advantage (PDF) (10/9, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Martin (D): 45

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 45

Other: 2

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Hot damn. While Insider Advantage doesn’t make its internals and crosstabs public, this is in line with just about every other recent poll we’ve seen in this race. There is just no doubt now that this is a seriously hot contest, and a winnable seat for Dems.

Which is why I’m going to implore you once again to chip in and help out Jim Martin’s campaign. Over the years, I’ve learned a lot about the blogosphere’s fundraising capabilities. One thing that’s become clear to me is that we function best when we act as a first mover – when we jump in early, get the ball rolling, and build up some buzz. In the right cases, that excitement draws in the bigger players and special things can really happen. And I think this is one of those cases.

However, we all know that for Team Blue to have a serious shot here, Chuck Schumer and the DSCC have to get involved. But like James said, we need to put our money where our mouths are – if those of us who are clamoring to make this a marquee race don’t pony up, why should the big boys?

I should add, though, that this fundraising push is not just about momentum-building. Jim Martin is going to need every last dime he can get his hands on. $2300 won’t cover the cost of TV ads, but it can pay for vans to transport voters on election day, boxes of palm cards, pizza for the staff, you name it. In a race as tight as this, everything counts, large and small.

So please, I implore you – dig deep. I know things are scary economically right now and that this ask is probably not coming at a good time for most folks. But if we want Barack Obama to have a real shot at undoing the mess that eight years of Bush, Cheney and McCain have gotten us into, then he’s going to need progressive populist partners like Jim Martin. Let’s make it happen!

(Hat-tip: RandySF)

UPDATE: Can’t believe I forgot the bonus finding! McNap leads by just THREE points statewide (PDF), 49-46. Yes, in Georgia.

LATE UPDATE: Wow! We only began late this afternoon and we’re already at 19 contributions and $923 donated. Can we make it an even 20/$1000?

A new Insider Advantage poll came hot off the presses and has the Georgia Senate race all tied up at 45%% each.

In the latest InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position poll, Democratic challenger Jim Martin has pulled to a tie with U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the U.S. Senate race in Georgia. In other polling, the Georgia presidential race has tightened substantially, and Barack Obama leads in Ohio.

These major changes — especially Chambliss’ dramatic tumble from safe frontrunner — reflect the turbulent nature of the electorate, as well as the economy, in the weeks leading to the election.

IA does not have the best reputation in the world, but it is in line with other polls. Now where is the DSCC?

Many times over the past few months, we’ve been asked if and when we’d fundraise for another candidate. We’ve said all along that we’d hold our fire unless and until we saw a very special opportunity emerge. That time is now.

Over the past two cycles, SSP has only endorsed three candidates: Jon Tester and Paul Hackett in 2005 and Travis Childers earlier this year in his groundbreaking Mississippi special election race. Today, we add a fourth: Georgia Senate candidate Jim Martin, who is waging an uphill but increasingly competitive battle against the repugnant GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

As with Childers, we were the first prognosticator to give this race a highly competitive rating, and the polls have shown this contest dramatically tightening in recent weeks. We would never ask our readers to donate to a candidate unless we truly believed that we stood a fighting chance of winning — and I believe that Jim Martin is within striking distance.

As Markos writes, Jim Martin is a progressive candidate across the board — a veteran state legislator, a sharp consumer advocate and friend of labor, and a thoroughly committed Democrat. You couldn’t ask for a better trade than replacing Saxby Chambliss, a man who slandered triple-amputee Max Cleland in his 2002 Senate race, with Jim Martin.

We’re not predicting a Martin win. But we are saying that this is a crucial opportunity, and Martin needs every last dollar he can get. While we would all love for the DSCC to flood Georgia with ads and resources, it’s time to put our money where our mouths are. If we expect Chuck Schumer to step up, we should be prepared to do the same.

Our goal? The same as in April: $2300 for Martin. In other words, that’s the equivalent of one “maxed out” big dollar donation.

Together, we can do this. So please support Jim Martin today with whatever you can manage.

Strategic Vision (R) (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (36)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (54)

Allen Buckley (L): 4 (4)

(MoE: ±3%)

Here’s yet more confirmation that we have a real race on our hands in Georgia: even Republican pollster Strategic Vision has the race within three, tightening from an 18-point spread one month ago (before the stock market collapse, Chambliss’s bailout vote, and, as an extra treat for Georgians, gas lines). The same sample shows a surprisingly close presidential race in Georgia as well, with McCain up only 50-43.

This poll might stick out like a sore thumb, if it didn’t mirror every other poll taken in the last few weeks; in fact, this race just slipped in to yellow toss-up territory at Pollster.com. Winning here (and the other Pollster tossups) would not only take us to the ‘magic number’ of 60, but give us the immense satisfaction of taking out Chambliss, who owes his Senate seat to one of the most disgusting smear jobs in American history. His opponent, Jim Martin, was just yesterday added to O2B over at Kos (hint hint).

You know things are bad for Republicans when insiders are already starting to murmur about what might happen if their Minority Leader, the odious Bush cheerleader Mitch McConnell, were to be defeated this year. And murmuring they are, according to Roll Call:

Asked whether Republicans have internally entertained the possibility, a top Republican strategist said: “They are just starting to, just a little bit. You need to prepare a contingency plan for ‘just in case’ scenarios like this one.”

A McConnell loss would devastate the GOP Senate caucus, and they know it:

A McConnell defeat, Republicans say, would be salt in the wound for a party staged to suffer significant losses in the House and Senate, and perhaps the White House.

“That would be the worst thing for any of us,” one GOP Senate aide said. “If McConnell loses, it would be bad for the caucus, it would be bad for the leadership team. Regardless if you love him or hate him, he has kept the caucus unified and has done it without beating people up.”

A Republican leadership aide agreed, saying that while he has often differed with the conservative wing of his party, McConnell has been effective in keeping an often disparate Conference together. “There would be a tremendous void in the ability to corral the Conference. There’s no one else out there, like a [former Sen.] Don Nickles who has that ability,” the aide said.

The leadership aide also argued that a McConnell loss would almost certainly be part of a much larger turnover in the Senate, arguing that in addition to losing their leader, Republicans would also be largely powerless to stop legislation in the Senate. “You’re well north of 60 [votes] if McConnell loses,” this source said.

“If McConnell loses, the Republicans would need to create stability immediately,” one GOP Senate strategist said. “They will need to coronate a new leader quickly in order to show strength because it’s going to be a party in disarray.”

As far as Senate contests go, a Mitch McConnell defeat would be the biggest political earthquake of election night. That said, it’s not going to happen without a lot of hard work and resources devoted to tearing McConnell down. I’d still have to give the GOP at least a slight edge in this contest due to Democrat Bruce Lunsford’s lingering baggage from his hard-fought 2003 gubernatorial campaign, but the idea of “Dasche-ling” McConnell feels less and less like a pipe dream as of late, especially with quotes like this one from DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer:

Schumer said Wednesday that Kentucky and Georgia – where GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in an unexpectedly tough race – are now on his radar as potential pickups given recent polling.

“They’re both tied. Our private polling mirrors the public polling that these are even-steven races. We believe we can win in both of those states. We’re devoting resources to them. In fact, you can go on our Web site. Our first Kentucky ad starts today,” Schumer said.

Rasmussen (10/7, likely voters, 9/16 in parens)

Jim Martin (D): 44 (43)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)

Allen Buckley (L): 2

(MoE: ±4.5%)

As we’ve seen in recent polls from SUSA, Reserach 2000, and the Mellman Group, this race is stunningly close. Some might call this “striking distance”. However, Martin will still need some help to capitalize on this opportunity.

Daily Kos just gave Martin the “Orange to Blue” treatment today. Let’s hope the that the DSCC will hop on the Jim Martin Express soon, too.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 54-45 according to the same poll. That’s down slightly from 54-43 last month.

The DSCC is widening their playing field, starting with Kentucky:

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) indicated Wednesday that Democrats are poised to pick up seven seats or more in November.

Schumer also announced that the DSCC has started airing an ad going after Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). […]

Schumer said that both McConnell’s race in Kentucky and GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss’ contest in Georgia have become newly competitive in just the past two weeks, with Democratic candidates pulling even in both public and private DSCC polls.

The DSCC ad against McConnell attacks him on the economy, but Schumer said the committee was largely steering clear of ads critical of endangered Republicans who voted for the recent $700 billion Wall Street rescue plan. McConnell is facing millionaire health care executive Bruce Lunsford (D).

If you ever needed an indication that Kentucky was a real race (aside from those three recent polls showing a dead heat), now you have it: the DSCC is lending Lunsford a real assist. We’ll post a copy of the ad when it becomes available online.

And what about Georgia, another race that has been quickly emerging in recent weeks?

Schumer would not say whether the DSCC would begin airing ads in Georgia for Chambliss’ opponent, former state Rep. Jim Martin (D), but said the committee has already committed funds to field operations there.

Advice to Chuck: Break the bank. Take out a loan. Pawn your watch. Rob Evan Bayh at gunpoint. Do whatever it takes, but please fund this race.

SSP currently rates the Kentucky and Georgia Senate races as Lean Republican.

UPDATE: Here’s the ad:

Safe D:

     VA (Open)

Races to Watch:  

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     SC (Graham)

     TX (Cornyn)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

Kentucky (McConnell): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Thanks, it seems, in large part to the ongoing financial crisis, Kentucky’s senate race has tightened dramatically in the past couple of weeks. SurveyUSA called it a three-point race and Mason-Dixon pegged the spread at just one. Meanwhile, the folks at the Rothenberg Political Report said they saw a third poll which also showed the race a dead heat.

If anger at Republicans and concerns about the economy don’t abate over the next month, GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell may have a serious fight on his hands. While McConnell had a massive $9 million warchest at the end of June, Dem Bruce Lunsford’s personal wealth (and his willingness to dig deep) can balance that out. Indeed, this is one race where we can stay financially competitive without the DSCC having to break the bank.

It’s hard, in other words, to see the Republicans holding as decisive an advantage as they once held in Kentucky. (Even the presidential numbers have tightened up a bit.) But this is a race that bears watching particularly closely – Rasmussen has already thrown some cold water on it, and the blue bounce may not last. Right now, though, McConnell is sweating in a way that he simply wasn’t last month, hence our decision to move this race.

Georgia (Chambliss): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

As with Kentucky, a trio of recent polls (with three-, two-, and one-point margins respectively) suggests that Georgia’s senate race is tight, almost shockingly so. Our changing views of this race, though, rest on some other, deeper data as well.

For one, SUSA says that early voters have gone for Dem Jim Martin by a 61-36 margin. At the same time, while the Obama campaign may have fallen short of its goal of registering 500,000 new black voters in Georgia, Nate Silver points out that black registration has soared nonetheless. He also notes that blacks have accounted for 40% of early voters so far, well above even his optimistic (but plausible) estimate that African Americans might compose 30% of the voting electorate in the final analysis.

Yet our newfound hope for beating the odious Saxby Chambliss is tempered by the fact that, unlike in Kentucky, the DSCC will need to get involved here to seal the deal. Georgia is a big, expensive state, and the DS already has more good targets than it can reasonably handle. Finding a few mil for the Peach State won’t be easy. At the same time, we don’t want to get gulled by those sumptuous-looking early voting numbers. Obama leads 64-35 among early voters, but that can’t be sustainable. (Again, though, Nate suggests a very close top-of-the-ticket finish in Georgia is indeed possible.)

Nevertheless, as with Kentucky, an upset has become distinctly more likely here than it was just a short while ago, and so we move this race to “Lean Republican.”