Tag: KY-Gov

Wow.  Just wow.  SurveyUSA has the first general election match-up poll between Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher and his Democratic opponent in this November’s elections, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear.  Fletcher, whose administration has endured a first term marred by ethics controversies and indictments, just recently turned away a fierce primary challenge by ex-Rep. Anne Northup, who has been regarded as one of the best campaigners in the state.  Fletcher’s survival might be partially attributed to his deflection of the ethics controversy as “politically motivated” (after all, the Attorney General who handed down the indictments, Democrat Greg Stumbo, subsequently ran for Lt. Gov. on Bruce Lunsford’s ticket), and one might suspect that the poll numbers would show a tighter race now that the local pundits have been writing about Fletcher’s astounding “comeback”.  Not so, according to SUSA (likely voters, no trendlines, 5/25/07 results):

Steve Beshear (D): 62%
Ernie Fletcher (R-Inc.): 34%
(MoE: ±3.9%)

What an absolutely staggering lead for Beshear, who is now claiming the support of 36% of Republican voters.  As long as Beshear keeps a steady focus and runs a smooth campaign, this one could be a slam dunk.  All for the better, as holding the Kentucky Governor’s mansion should protect Reps. Chandler and Yarmuth from any funky redistricting threats in 2012.

(Hat-tip: Bluegrass Report)

Race Tracker: KY-Gov

UPDATE (David): No runoffs, which is great news for us all around. Beshear wins with 41% while Lunsford limps in with 21%. Meanwhile, Fletcher crushes Northup 51-37. A while back, I was sure Fletcher would wind up like Frank Murkowski in Alaska, but thankfully here, GOP voters did us a solid.

Meanwhile, some 350,000 Dems voted in our primary while just 200,000 Republicans voted in theirs. I’m not exactly sure how to interpret this, given that Kentucky clearly has a Democratic overhang from the old days of the Solid South – it’s a decidedly red state, yet there are 50% more registered Dems than Republicans. But I can’t see how the turnout disparity is a bad thing for us.

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For updated results as they come in, try the Kentucky State Board of Elections.

It’s primary night in Kentucky, and a lot is on the line.

On the Republican side, if you believe the latest polling from SurveyUSA, the Kentucky GOP faithful is on the verge of giving corrupt Gov. Ernie Fletcher a second chance over ex-Rep. Anne Northup (likely primary voters; 5/18-20 results, 5/12-14 results in parens):

Fletcher (R): 44 (44)
Northup (R): 34 (34)
Harper (R): 17 (14)
Undecided: 5 (8)
(MoE: ±4.6%)

However, in a low-turnout election, anything can happen.  Fletcher will need to eke out 40% of the vote in order to avoid a runoff.  On the other hand, that Fletcher appears to be in the dominant position on election day is nothing short of remarkable, as most prognosticators assumed that the highly-touted campaign skills of Northup combined with the sagging popularity of the scandal-ridden incumbent would be enough to jettison Fletcher’s career once and for all.

On the Democratic side, a runoff appears more likely between former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear and businessman Bruce Lunsford:

Beshear: 32 (32)
Lunsford: 23 (23)
Henry: 17 (18)
Richards: 12 (12)
Undecided: 6 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)

The Swing State Project hasn’t spent much time discussing the Kentucky Governor’s race so far this year, but if this race whittles down to a primary between Lunsford and Beshear, the kid gloves will come off.  Having Bruce Lunsford as the Democratic nominee would be nothing short of an unacceptable scenario.  Lunsford, who dropped out of the 2003 Democratic gubernatorial primary after pumping millions of his own dollars into vicious negative advertising, stabbed the eventual nominee, Ben Chandler, in the back by endorsing Fletcher just months after pledging to remain neutral (he even went on to serve as part of Fletcher’s transition team).  And while he was engaging in some truly despicable practices as a nursing home owner, he forked over 77% of his political donations to Republicans, including thousands to Anne Northup, Jim Bunning, Mitch McConnell, George W. Bush, the RNC, the NRSC… pretty much the works.

The Swing State Project makes no secret that we’re a Democratic blog that wishes Democratic candidates well.  But Lunsford ain’t no Democrat, and we won’t spend a minute carrying any water for that miserable excuse for a politician should the unthinkable happen and he go on to win the Democratic nomination.  Kentucky deserves so much better than a Fletcher v. Lunsford nightmare.

Race Tracker: KY-Gov

This puts a smile on my face.

In Kentucky’s Republican gubernatorial primary next week, “although the No. 3 candidate claims his internal polls show former Rep. Anne Northup (R-Ky.) pulling ahead, it appears more likely that she can, at best, force a runoff against troubled incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R),” according to the Evans-Novak Political Report. “Even that appears unlikely at this point. One poll shows Fletcher 10 points ahead and well above the 40 percent threshold at which he avoids a runoff.”

Meanwhile, “on the Democratic side, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear is clearly the man to beat at this point. The most likely outcome of next Tuesday’s primary is a runoff between him and Bruce Lunsford. Beshear has benefited from the departure of state Treasurer Jonathan Miller (D) from the race — Miller endorsed Beshear as he exited. In debates, Beshear was everyone’s target, a sign that all of the campaigns recognize his late frontrunner status. Leaning Beshear.”

It looks like that, in the Buegrass State, our best-case scenario is about to come true. Let’s hope so.

Chris Cillizza and Jeffrey H. Birnbaum have a piece in the Washington Post today on the 2007 race for Governor of Kentucky. The announcement this week by Congressman Ben Chandler that he will not seek to become the Democratic nominee against troubled GOP incumbent Ernie Fletcher opens the field to a number of possible Democratic candidates.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

(Cross posted on Daily Kos)

Since Election Day, all of the election-related talk has naturally been about 2008, with a few Kissell, Jennings, and Jefferson stories sprinkled in between them. But I say wait a cotton pickin’ minute because we have some southern gubernatorial races to deal with in 2007. Below the fold, I’ll try and go through some background on the three races, the likely contenders, and our chances. I am a Yankee and live in none of the three states, so take my analyses with the required grain of salt.

Mississippi

Date of election:
November 6, 2006

Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Haley Barbour

Possible Democratic Candidates:
Wayne Dowdy – Former Congressman and current head of the Mississippi Democratic Party
James Graves – Member of the Mississippi Supreme Court
Ray Mabus – Former governor, 1988-1992, and former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Mike Moore – Former Attorney General, 1988-2004
Ronnie Musgrove – Former governor, 2000-2004, defeated in 2003 by Barbour in a close election

Governor’s Approval Rating:
59%

Analysis:
Probably will be the least competitive of the three gubernatorial races, but that’s not to say it can’t get interesting.  The only way, in my opinion, this race is winnable is if Musgrave or Moore throw their respective hats in the ring.  Moore is apparently well-liked in the state for most notably taking on tobacco companies and getting them to reimburse the state for treating patients of smoke-related illnesses.  Musgrove, being a recent former governor, obviously has the name recognition to make the race potentially competitive.  He did however lose in 2003 to Barbour, so quite a few things would have to go right for him to win again in this deep-red state.

No matter who runs however, they face a huge uphill battle facing a fairly popular Republican governor in a Republican state.

Louisiana

Date of election:
October 20, 2007 & November 17, 2007 (if necessary)

Likely Democratic Nominee:
Incumbent Kathleen Blanco

Possible Republican Candidates:
Bobby Jindal – U.S. Congressman for Louisiana’s 1st congressional district
John Georges – CEO of several large Louisiana based businesses
Walter Boasso – State Senator from Arabi

Governor’s Approval Rating:
39%

Analysis:
Blanco may face a strong challenge from Mitch Landrieu, the current Lieutenant Governor, if he decides to enter the race, which some local pundits expect him to do.  Former Senator John Breaux has been mentioned as another candidate, but has said he would not enter if Blanco runs for re-election, which she has stated she intends to do.  Although she must be considered the favorite among Democrats, a strong challenge from Landrieu would be devastating to her chances as he’ll sifend much needed money from her and potentially cost her an outright victory or, at the least, might allow a Republican into the run-off election.

Bobby Jindal has already announced he will run against Blanco, and from what I can tell, he is already considered the frontrunner in the race.  A poll of 600 people in late October showed Jindal with 52% to Blanco’s 20%.  Landrieu is polling at 9%.  That being said, a lot can happen between Oct 2006 and Oct 2007, but it seems like Blanco has an uphill battle here – a large part of which has to be contributed to the exodus of African-American New Orleans residents leaving the state.  An unpopular Democratic governor in a Republican state is not a good thing.  Throw in that a large part of her base is gone, and it’s hard to see Blanco winning re-election.  One X-factor that’s in her favor is that Jindal is not very battle-tested in that he has won every election by a landslide since taking office.

The other two potential Republicans would not be very significant to the race if they entered.

Note: Louisiana has a run-off election system where if one candidate does not take more than 50% of the vote on Primary Day, another election with the top two finishers is held.

Kentucky

Date of election:
November 6, 2006

Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Ernie Fletcher

Possible Democratic Candidates:
John Y. Brown III – Former Kentucky Secretary of State; son of former Governor of Kentucky John Y. Brown, Jr.
Julian Carroll – Member of the Kentucky State Senate; former Governor of Kentucky, 1974-1979; former Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives
Ben Chandler – Representative from Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District
Martha Layne Collins – Former Governor of Kentucky, 1983-1987
Brereton Jones – former Governor of Kentucky, 1991-1995
Greg Stumbo – Attorney General of Kentucky
Otis Hensley, Jr – Private contractor

Governor’s Approval Rating:
35%

Analysis:
This is probably the most interesting of the races to watch in 2007, with a whole slew of Democratic heavy-hitters lined up to take on the very corrupt Fletcher.  The only Democrat who has announced his candidacy thus far is Hensley (who received 3% of the vote in the 2003 Democratic primary), but as you can see, there are a lot of big names that are rumored to jump into this race.

On the surface – which is about the only place I’m capable of making judgements from – there doesn’t seem to be the one or two stand-out candidates that would make a formidable challenger like there is in Mississippi and Louisiana.  Chandler seems like he would make a very formidable candidate, and his seat would not be at-risk as it is heavily Democratic.  You probably can’t go wrong with a former governor – which there seems to be a plethora of on the Democratic side – either.  Perhaps some Kentucky Swing Staters can shed some light on this race.  One thing I do know, however, is that Fletcher is not liked and will face an uphill battle no matter who he faces.