Tag: Chris Gregoire

SurveyUSA (8/11-12, likely voters, 7/13-15 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (49)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (46)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 47 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (46)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (3)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The nation’s two closest gubernatorial races continue to be, well, close according to SurveyUSA. In Washington, SurveyUSA’s numbers stay extremely consistent, with each side gaining a smidge of support, to the extent that only 2% of respondents remain undecided with more than two months to go. I doubt too many people have changed their minds since 2004. (The stability of this race is best seen graphed over at Pollster.com.)

One thing to bear in mind is that Rossi has been engaged in saturation advertising this month (there’s a freakin’ Rossi banner ad at the top of my screen no matter what site I’m looking at), in order to ramp up his numbers for the primary/beauty contest next week, while Gregoire has backed off a bit on advertising. Rossi, I’d imagine, is counting on getting some momentum out of a surprise squeaker victory in the Top 2 primary, possible since he has the more motivated supporters and there won’t be any Obama coattails next week. (As I mentioned in the comments a few days ago, the minor candidates in the primary are a particularly hapless lot this year, incapable of playing spoiler to either Rossi or Gregoire.)

As for the Tar Heel State, that looks very stable too. Here’s its Pollster.com graph. The main fluctuation seems to be right-leaners trying to decide whether to go with McCrory or Munger. (I suspect they’ll, as usual, go with the Republican, which why I’d bet this race winds up being a little closer than Washington in November.)

Rasmussen (8/6, likely voters, 7/9, 6/9 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (49, 50)

Dino Rossi (R): 43 (43, 43)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I’ve repeatedly proclaimed my boredom with the stability of this race (howzabout a new MO-Gov poll instead now that we’ve had the primary?). And maybe the blogger code of ethics should demand that I recuse myself from reporting this poll since I was actually one of the persons polled. Nevertheless, here’s the new Rasmussen: a little more downward drift for Gregoire, Rossi still stuck in park at 43. It’s 50-46 with leaners pushed.

The same sample gives Obama a 52-40 lead, so Gregoire is underperforming the top of the ticket a bit (again). Given Rossi’s inability to increase his share, though, inertia might be enough to carry her over the finish line (again).

Elway Research (7/27-31, registered voters, 6/8-12 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 52 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 36 (39)

(MoE: ±5%)

The new Elway poll on the Washington governor’s race gives Gregoire her largest lead of any poll this cycle, although it’s pretty consistent with previous Elway and Rasmussen polling.

Strategic Vision (R) (7/25-27, likely voters, 10/5-7/2007 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±3%)

SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision have been presenting a much closer picture of the race, although they’ve also been extremely consistent from poll to poll. (In fact, Strategic Vision gets exactly the same result as the last time they polled the race nine months ago.) As I’ve commented before, this is a race where almost every mind has been made up for four years, and we’re mostly just seeing differences in pollsters’ models.

The Elway poll also polled some downballot issues (albeit with huge undecided numbers), including the suddenly-hotly-contested race for Commissioner of Public Lands. Former Agriculture Director (and 2006 candidate in WA-05) Peter Goldmark (D) is leading two-term incumbent Doug Sutherland (R) 31-30. (Sexual harassment allegations against Sutherland recently came to light.)

In the Attorney General’s race, incumbent Rob McKenna (R) leads Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg (D) 41-30. And the highest-profile initiative on the ballot, I-1000 (to allow physician-assisted suicide), is favored 39-26.

Rasmussen (7/9, likely voters) (6/9 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 49 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This strikes me as the most heavily polled governor’s race in the nation, but I’m really starting to wonder why. The numbers are remarkably stable from poll to poll, not just with Rasmussen but with SurveyUSA and Elway as well. Each poll has a slightly different snapshot, probably based on how they weight their samples, but the snapshot is very similar each month. People have had their minds made up about this one since 2004.