Tag: Bev Perdue

PPP (8/20-23, likely voters, 7/23-27 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 43 (46)

Pat McCrory (R): 38 (37)

Michael Munger (L): 4 (6)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

PPP’s new poll of the open North Carolina gubernatorial race gives Democratic Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue a five-point lead over Republican Pat McCrory, the mayor of Charlotte. It’s a bit of downward drift from last month, but much more comfortable than their June numbers, which had her up by only 42-41.

This is quite consistent with Rasmussen’s polling of the race. The August 13 Rasmussen (which SSP unfortunately let slip through the cracks until now) pegs it as a six-point race for Perdue, 51-45, improved from 47-46 in the previous poll in June. No pollster (including SurveyUSA or Civitas) has seen McCrory with a lead since May.

PPP also polled all the races for the Justice League Council of State; Democrats lead all but two of the races (Ag Commissioner and Labor Commissioner). Most of the leads are pretty narrow, but incumbent Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper (seen as probably the likeliest challenger against the underwhelming Richard Burr in NC-Sen 2010) is thumping his R opposition, Bob Crumley, 48-30.

SurveyUSA (8/11-12, likely voters, 7/13-15 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (49)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (46)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 47 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (46)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (3)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The nation’s two closest gubernatorial races continue to be, well, close according to SurveyUSA. In Washington, SurveyUSA’s numbers stay extremely consistent, with each side gaining a smidge of support, to the extent that only 2% of respondents remain undecided with more than two months to go. I doubt too many people have changed their minds since 2004. (The stability of this race is best seen graphed over at Pollster.com.)

One thing to bear in mind is that Rossi has been engaged in saturation advertising this month (there’s a freakin’ Rossi banner ad at the top of my screen no matter what site I’m looking at), in order to ramp up his numbers for the primary/beauty contest next week, while Gregoire has backed off a bit on advertising. Rossi, I’d imagine, is counting on getting some momentum out of a surprise squeaker victory in the Top 2 primary, possible since he has the more motivated supporters and there won’t be any Obama coattails next week. (As I mentioned in the comments a few days ago, the minor candidates in the primary are a particularly hapless lot this year, incapable of playing spoiler to either Rossi or Gregoire.)

As for the Tar Heel State, that looks very stable too. Here’s its Pollster.com graph. The main fluctuation seems to be right-leaners trying to decide whether to go with McCrory or Munger. (I suspect they’ll, as usual, go with the Republican, which why I’d bet this race winds up being a little closer than Washington in November.)