Tag: Sarah Palin

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Lisa Murkowski (R-inc): 31

Sarah Palin (R): 55

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±5%)

As Markos reminds us, the polling in Alaska this past cycle (including Research 2000’s) was abysmal, so we need to view these numbers with appropriate skepticism. Nonetheless, this is a matchup I’d want to see almost no matter what. There’s nothing like a top-dollar GOP food fight to warm my heart.

R2K also tested a bunch of other gov & sen matchups, but we’re hamstrung by the lack of Dem candidates with any real name recognition. It’s hard to feel too optimistic for the Alaska Division of Team Blue at this early juncture. But who knows? Maybe an ultra-nasty Republican primary battle could jar this seat loose for us.

A few days ago when the senate race was a 1-2 point race, this thread may have been more relevant but now it looks like both Dems will win.

But, Alaska’s polls close a full 2 hours after any other state in the country. So, a lot of Alaskans may go to the polls with one of the candidates, probably Obama, having already reached 270, and I was wondering if you guys thought this might effect turnout, and who this would benefit.

Charlie Cook assesses dueling theories:

But what does that mean for races down the ballot? In part the answer depends on whether you believed that Republicans had a turnout problem before Palin was chosen. There are two schools of thought. The first is that although many Republicans were not excited about McCain, a longtime maverick and, yes, irritant to the GOP establishment, the party’s voters would have supported him anyway. They might not have run to the polls, but they would have voted. This theory posits that these voters simply feel better now about a vote they would have cast anyway.

The second theory is that if McCain had not added Palin or someone else capable of revving up the GOP base, quite a few Republicans wouldn’t have voted. A moderate case of sniffles, an unusually busy first-Tuesday-after-the-first-Monday-in-November, or any number of other excuses might well have been seized upon. And these Republicans would simply not have felt strongly enough about their support for McCain to persevere and vote. Under this theory, Palin really helps unless her standing is damaged.

Where Palin may not be able to help is among what some Bush campaign strategists in 2004 called “unreliable Republicans,” those who would vote Republican but have a history of not showing up on Election Day. These are people who have to be identified and hounded with phone calls and visits to their homes to remind them that, yes, this is Election Day and they are expected to vote. McCain has neither the money nor the organizational ability to match the get-out-the-vote efforts of President Bush’s 2004 campaign or Obama’s current effort.

So perhaps Palin is an asset but not quite a savior. For down-ballot GOP candidates who need all of the turnout assistance they can get, she will help some — but probably not enough unless they were already within shouting distance of victory. Republicans won’t have the masterful vote-generating machine they’ve grown accustomed to, but they are better off with Palin near the top of their ticket.

In other words, Cook says, to believe there will be a sizable Palin effect downballot, you’d have to think that at least some portion of the hardcore fundie base now going ga-ga over the GOP VP nominee would have otherwise stayed home had Palin not been named to the ticket. Otherwise, Palin is just revving up people who would have voted anyway, albeit unenthusiastically.

Personally, I think at least some Republicans who weren’t going to bother with this election are now going to show up, which is more or less what Cook concludes, since he thinks Palin “will help some.” But the reigning pessimist in me thinks the effect may be bigger than Cook imagines. What do you think?

Democrats were sitting pretty in these two races (esp. if Young hangs on in the primary) until McCain picked Gov. Palin.

My short take:

Stevens is done unless he is acquitted.  The outcome of the trial may be important.  I just don’t think there are many coattails in this race.  The House race may be a different story as Palin could pull Young through.

Any thoughts?

In case you haven’t heard yet, John McCain’s out-of-the-box Vice-Presidential pick is Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska. Now let me start by saying: I’m baffled, because her lack of experience (two years as governor of one of the nation’s smallest, and, let’s face it, most unusual states… and prior to that, mayor of a town of about 7,000) dramatically undercuts his ability to hit Obama on the not-ready-to-lead charge.

On top of that, there’s the mini-scandal associated with Trooper-gate, which revealed a rather vindictive and not so squeaky-clean Palin going after the head trooper who wouldn’t fire her screw-up ex-brother-in-law. There’s also the not-so-small matter of Alaska having only 3 electoral votes, although it does legitimately qualify as a swing state this year. Maybe after the Dem convention, the Republicans have realized the not-ready-to-lead thing just isn’t going to work on Obama, and, despite the pleasant whiff of unity coming out of Denver, are banking on peeling off a few points’ worth of PUMAs who may be attracted to a female pick (and Palin is one of the few prominent Republican women conservative enough that she won’t irritate the base).

Anyway, let’s step away from the Presidential politics; this is Swing State Project, after all! Here’s the hypothetical: what if, for some reason, McCain/Palin wins? The next person in line is Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. If the current vote count in the AK-AL race holds, it looks like Parnell might have his schedule free to take over as governor after all.

On the other hand, what if Parnell manages to squeak past Don Young in the recount (and since the person in charge of administering Alaskan elections is none other than Parnell, don’t rule it out!), and then makes it past Ethan Berkowitz in the general? We discussed this very possibility, remote as it seemed at the time, in our VP Vacancy Speculation thread a few months ago. It turns out that the Alaska constitution and election statutes don’t specify who the #3 person in the line of succession is, but an Attorney General opinion Alaska law allows the governor to designate a third person. The currently designated person is Republican Attorney General Talis Colberg.

There’s one more possibility: what if Parnell wins AK-AL, but put in the position of being able to choose between being governor or representative, chooses the power of governor over the potential longevity of representative? Then, as far as I can tell, we’d be in immediate special election territory for the vacant House seat.

Your thoughts?

UPDATE: In this video (from several weeks ago), Palin admits that she doesn’t really know what the VP does every day. Try doing that at your next job interview!