Tag: NC-Sen

Either Liddy DOle is running out of money or she is just getting outgunned. Either way, she has now resorted to spending her own money, according to the Charlotte News and Observor.

Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole says she is spending some of her own money on her first reelection bid, trying to offset millions of dollars in negative spending Democrats have used to make the race one of the closest in the country.

Dole and her campaign declined to say how much she has pledged to her campaign, but the commitment came recently enough that it won’t appear in campaign finance reports due this week.

“You get such a lot coming at you and spending a great deal of time raising money — there just comes a point when you feel like you need to put some skin in the game,” Dole said.

A spokesman for Dole’s campaign, Dan McLagan, said Sunday that Dole has raised more than $3 million in the quarter ending Sept. 30. He declined to provide a number for cash-on-hand. The campaign of Dole’s Democratic challenger, state Sen. Kay Hagan, also declined Sunday to provide details of her financial resources.

Yeah, I think this one’s over.

Rasmussen (10/8, likely voters, 9/23 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (48)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

For the first time in Rasmussen’s polling, Dole’s favorable/unfavorable rating has bottomed out to a 1:1 ratio (49-49, down from 52-44 in September), while Hagan’s rating has also fallen from 51-39 to 50-45. That’s the power of the NRSC, Freedom’s Crotch and other GOP-friendly orgs at work, but for all their many attack ads accusing Hagan of being a tax-addicted tax-hiker from Taxachusetts, they haven’t seemed to douse North Carolina’s desire for change.

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/6-8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (40)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (48)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

SurveyUSA has been noticeably friendlier to Dole than most other pollsters in this state, and this release is no exception — it’s the first poll in several weeks to give Dole an edge (albeit an extremely marginal one). The important thing to note is the trend line, and it’s favoring Hagan.

NC-Gov:

Bev Perdue (D): 45 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 46 (49)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

No surprise: this race is extremely close. A PPP poll released earlier today gave Perdue a 3-point lead, so either result is plausible.

And in the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama by 49-46, that’s down from the ridiculous 58-38 lead that McCain posted in SUSA’s September poll.

Wow

Kay Hagan leads Liddy Dole 49-40 in a new PPP Poll released today.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Also, in that other race, its

Obama 50

McCain 44

Obama was up by 2 in last week’s PPP poll.

Good times in NC.

Public Policy Polling (10/4-5, likely voters, 9/27-28 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 40 (38)

Christopher Cole (L): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Wow. PPP’s Tom Jensen has more:

In a state like North Carolina with a large Democratic registration advantage, a Republican candidate has to peel off a lot of voters from the other party to win statewide. But Elizabeth Dole is barely winning more of the Democratic vote- 12%- than Kay Hagan is taking of the Republican vote- 9%. Add in a 44-33 lead for Hagan with independents and it’s the recipe for a near double digit lead for the Democratic challenger.

Hagan is also making strong in roads in rural North Carolina- where John McCain has a 16 point lead over Barack Obama, Dole has just a five point advantage over Hagan. Our polling, both public and private, has also found that Hagan is playing extremely well with the state’s quickly expanding group of suburban voters. She may well be the standard bearer of the profile of candidate who’s going to be successful statewide in 21st century North Carolina.

Remarkably, Obama has pulled up to a 50-44 lead over McCain according to the same poll. If Obama wins North Carolina, there is just no chance for Liddy Dole. It’s no small wonder that Freedom’s Crotch is hitting the panic button and dumping $750K in attack ads against Hagan this week.

Sometimes a story just speaks for itself. This is one of them

A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina….

Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. “There’s no point in even counting the votes,” said a top McCain official.

Republican hopelessness: Priceless.

Rasmussen (9/30, likely voters, 8/13 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 46 (51)

Pat McCrory (R): 50 (45)

Michael Munger (L): 2

(MoE: ±4%)

Elon University (9/29-10/2, residents, 9/15-16 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 33 (35)

Pat McCrory (R): 37 (37)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Two new polls give more bad news for Bev Perdue, who seems to be slipping in her quest to hold the open North Carolina gubernatorial seat for the Dems. Rasmussen shows a big reversal from mid-August, when Perdue seemed to be at her peak. Elon University also shows Perdue losing a little ground from several weeks ago.

Elon University (9/29-10/2, residents, 9/15-16 in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 37 (35)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 35 (35)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

On the plus side, the same Elon University poll sees Kay Hagan gaining ground in the Senate race. (Bear in mind that the Elon poll is rife with methodological problems: it’s a sample only of residents, and respondents are only asked for each race whether they’re supporting the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Nevertheless, their margins seem generally in line with numbers we’re seeing elsewhere, with the presidential race in NC tied at 39-39.)

Some people like Chuck Todd, others don’t. I remember his days with the Hotline and always found him to be a straight shooter when talking about House, Senate and gubernatorial races. And that is why I found this article in today’s First Read so interesting. Even though he is not declaring her dead, it does not sound as though he likes her chances.

Down the ballot in North Carolina, the Democratic hit that Elizabeth Dole spent just 20 days in the Tar Heel State in 2005 and 13 days there in 2006 might very well have been the final nail in her coffin in her race against Dem challenger Kay Hagan. Could the end of the Bush era also bring us the end of the Dole era? There has been a Dole in the Senate for nearly 50 straight years — and either a Bush or a Dole on the national ticket going back to ’72. Will Liddy Dole’s potential defeat signal the true end of the two most powerful Republican families of the last 50 years?

I am sure Bob and Elizabeth Dole love each other very much, but s far as their record in the Senate, she cannot hold a candle to her husband’s, which is remarkable by any standard. North Carolina elected Jesse Helms for many years and they gave us Faircloth and Burr as well, so I would not write off any Republican, but it’s fair to say Dole is in a lot of trouble and fast running out of time. If she does not find a magic bullet soon, she won’t have to step inside North Carolina ever again.

Public Policy Polling (9/27-28, likely voters, 9/17-19 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 46 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 38 (41)

Christopher Cole (L): 6 (6)

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3%)

Dole under 40%? Whoa — those are some pug-ugly numbers for any incumbent. PPP’s Tom Jensen has the key finding:

Particularly [troubling] for Dole is how well Hagan is connecting with white voters. She trails Dole just 47-38 with that group. Usually for a Republican to win statewide here they need at least a 20 point advantage with whites to offset overwhelming African American support for Democratic candidates.

And Crisitunity offers his take:

And while a lot of this movement must have to do with the turmoil in the banking and finance industries (which is a major employer in Charlotte), bear in mind that this was taken before today’s announcement of Citi’s acquisition of NC-based Wachovia, which seems likely to drive current trends even further.

You want some gravy with that? Obama has pulled ahead of McCain in North Carolina by 47-45. It really is the economy, stupid. PPP, I believe, will now be doing weekly polls of North Carolina, so there won’t be any shortage of data from this race.

Rasmussen (9/23, likely voters, 9/18 in parentheses)

Kay Hagan (D): 48 (51)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I try not to single out particular pollsters for ridicule, but Rasmussen has had one mixed-up crazy week. Nevertheless, their newest poll of the North Carolina Senate race is very much in line with their poll last week of the same race, and other pollsters as well: Hagan is showing a small but sustained lead. Somewhat miraculously, both candidates have favorable ratings over 50%: Dole at 52% and Hagan at 51%.

This is the same sample that gave Obama a 49-47 lead. Obama’s organizing and advertising push in North Carolina seems to be paying off not just for him (as NC is starting to move into undeniable swing-state territory) but downticket as well.