Tag: NC-Sen

SurveyUSA (9/6-8, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 40 (41)

Liddy Dole (R-inc): 48 (46)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (7)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

We’ve seen Kay Hagan surging ahead in other polls, so what’s the dealio here?

Well, this is a weekend poll (which any pollster worth his salt will tell you is a less than ideal time to field a survey) taken immediately after an effective GOP convention. Apparently, McCain’s electrifying convention speech and his selection of moose huntress Sarah Palin has awoken a zombie Republican army, as the poll’s crosstabs reveal a partisan sample of 41% R, 40% D. That’s a dramatic jump from the 46% D, 33% R partisan sample that SUSA found in August.

The findings trickle up the ballot, too: McCain has a monstrous 20% lead over Obama, and Pat McCrory leads Bev Perdue by eight points.

No, I’m not putting much stock in these numbers, although it’s possible that the GOP (especially McCain) received a mini-bump. Our friend Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling doesn’t believe these numbers, either, and that firm is fielding a new poll starting tonight in order to set the record straight.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps (8/20-26, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 50

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Damn, son. Those are some great numbers for Kay Hagan, and this is the second poll in a row to show her with a lead over Liddy Dole. In fact, the Pollster.com graph is looking downright exciting as of late.

Now, Hagan and the DSCC have landed several weeks worth of unanswered hits on Dole, and the NRSC has only started to fire back this week. The Democratic attacks on Dole (e.g. on her effectiveness, her weak relationship with her state, and her lockstep record with George Bush) have been hitting at all the right targets. I really like this trend, and am hoping that the post-Labor Day polls confirm what we’re seeing here.

Bonus findings: The same poll also finds McCain leading Obama by 47-44, and McCrory and Perdue tied at 46-46 in the gubernatorial race.

Public Policy Polling (8/20-23, likely voters, 7/23-27 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 42 (40)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 39 (49)

Chris Cole (L): 5 (4)

Undecided: 13 (7)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Boom! That’s the power of a DSCC moneybomb at work, people: 69% of voters say that they have seen the DSCC’s attack ads, and clearly it has helped push the needle big time here. Dole’s support among African-Americans has nearly halved, as well, to 14%, and Dole’s lead among whites is now only 10 points strong: 47-37.

There’s still plenty of time on the clock, but things must be getting tense at Dole’s campaign headquarters right about now.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

In a terse statement stained with his own personal disgust, NRSC Chair John Ensign lambasted his GOP Senate colleagues today for failing to financially support his committee:

“I recently challenged my colleagues to step up to the plate and help me provide the resources our candidates need to compete in races across the country – to match the [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee] expenditures in targeted races,” Ensign said in a statement. “It has become clear that my call has gone largely unanswered. I have no control over the timing or content of IE ads, but I have had no choice but to decrease the total budget of our IE Unit. It is still my hope that my Republican colleagues will engage in this election and help match what the Democrats are doing. If they do, I will adjust our budget accordingly.”

CQ Politics notes that Republican Senators have only contributed $1.1 million to the committee through June, while Democrats have forked over a much more generous $5 million.

Ensign’s failures as NRSC chair are already having immediate consequences. From the Politico:

The NRSC reserved about $6 million in ad buys in North Carolina, according to sources from both parties, which was meant to show that the GOP was ready to play hard in what has become a dead heat race between Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan.

But on Wednesday the NRSC yanked the money because, it turns out, the dough was never available in the first place. One GOP Senate source said it was a “head fake” that pulled the rug out from under Dole. But Dole told Politico in a phone interview Thursday that she realizes in this tough national climate for Republicans that she’s on her own in the race and will have to raise all her own money without relying on the NRSC.

As the polls show, Dole could really use a boost right about now. Too bad for her, the NRSC is hamstrung due to the stinginess of her GOP colleagues. This is what I like to call schadenfreude at its most delicious.

Enjoy the pain, Republicans. You bastards deserve it.

Civitas (8/14-17, likely voters, 7/14-17 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 41 (38)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (47)

Chris Cole (L): 4 (2)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

First we had SUSA, and then Insider Advantage, and now Civitas all showing a rapidly tightening race, probably in no small part due to the pummeling that the DSCC and Dem allies are giving Dole on the airwaves over the issues of her effectiveness and her ties to “big oil”. This is all fantastic news.

The folks over at Public Policy Polling have their own poll in the field, and their early results show Hagan beating Dole. It’s enough for PPP’s Tom Jensen to ask: Is “Dole falling apart“?

I would think one of the cardinal rules of politics is not to remind people of your flaws. That’s why I’m amazed to see that Elizabeth Dole’s new ad responding to the DSCC’s ads about her #93 effectiveness ranking devotes its first four seconds to repeating that unfortunate little fact about herself! Don’t spend your own money to remind people about an ad that’s doing you a lot of damage. […]

I’ll admit up until a couple weeks ago I didn’t really think Kay Hagan had any chance at this. But the DSCC’s campaign on her behalf has been brilliant, and I’m frankly amazed at the numbers we’ve seen the first two days of our tracking poll- we’ll probably release the North Carolina Senate numbers Tuesday.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we’re loving this trend.

Insider Advantage for the Southern Political Report (8/19, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 40

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Hooah. Those are some damn fine numbers for Kay Hagan, and while it’s too early to tell if this is part of a coming polling trend, this could be a sign that the negative ad campaign by the DSCC, Majority Action and most recently, MoveOn.org, may be having some effect on Dole’s favorables. Hagan herself has taken back to the airwaves recently with a series of new ads – certainly also a key part of the equation.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-43 in North Carolina. Hagan currently outperforms Obama among white voters (who break 54-33 for McCain, and 46-34 for Dole), but lags Obama’s performance among African-Americans (who favor Obama by 75-17, but Hagan only by 61-24). If Hagan can cut down on cross-over voting among black voters and make a steady gain among whites, she could be in a good position for an upset by election day.

Encouraging numbers, all around.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Here it is:

That’s just the second ad that the DSCC had aired against Dole. The committee has already spent $800,000 on its first ad targeting Liddy’s effectiveness, and has reserved a whopping $7.3 million in airtime in the state after Labor Day. Despite NRSC Chair John Ensign’s fervent pledge to match the DSCC “dollar for dollar“, we haven’t heard a peep from the Republican committee so far in North Carolina.

This contest is getting hotter by the day.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 41 (42)

Liddy Dole (R-inc): 46 (54)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (-)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

So the gap closes from 12 to 5 points, but here’s the rub: SUSA is now including Libertarian Chris Cole in the match-up, and it seems very doubtful that he’ll be able to perform this well on election day. For now, Cole is taking heavy chunks from males (11%), voters aged 18-34 (12%), and independents (21%). Those numbers will dissipate by November — likely in both directions.

It’s still good news for Hagan, who went up on the air with her first general election ad today. Dole’s also been hit recently by ads from the DSCC and Majority Action. Hopefully the two prongs of Hagan’s positives and the DSCC’s attacks will help to keep the numbers moving in the right direction.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: RandySF)

As I have been execting, Kay Hagan is closing in on Elizabeth Dole in a new Survey USA poll.

In an election for United States Senator in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, 12 weeks till votes are counted, incumbent Republican US Senator Elizabeth Dole edges Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan 46% to 41%, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. But: Libertarian Christopher Cole gets 7% today, which, when combined with another 5% of voters who are undecided, makes the Senate race today fascinating to watch and difficult to handicap. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, on 07/15/08, which did not include Cole by name, Hagan is flat, Dole is down. Cole gets 11% of male votes today, siphoning key votes Dole needs to win. Cole gets 12% of young votes today, siphoning key votes Hagan needs to win. Cole gets 9% of the white vote today, cutting Dole’s lead from 30+ points to 20 points. Though Dole holds 82% of the GOP base today, that’s down from 90% in July. 1 in 5 NC Independents today vote for Cole, which takes key votes away from both candidates. Dole is running for her second term in the United States Senate. Hagan is serving her fifth term in the North Carolina State Senate. Support for 3rd-Party candidates often collapses as Election Day nears, and that may or may not happen in North Carolina in 2008. Today, 12 weeks out, voters with a message they want to deliver to both Republicans and Democrats are using Cole as their protest vehicle.

This was taken before Kay launched her ads, which I expect to pull her even closer.

An SSP worldwide exclusive:

The group is spending $115,000 on the ad, which will air in the Triangle, Greenville-New Bern and Wilmington markets. Combined with the DSCC’s $400K buy against Dole, that’s a nice early August one-two punch in North Carolina.