Rasmussen (9/18, likely voters):
Bob Conley (D): 41
Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Bob Conley, the Democratic candidate for Senate in South Carolina against Lindsey Graham, is sort of the flip side of Bob Kelleher, the Republican Senate candidate in Montana: a quaint eccentric with no institutional support and who’s way out of step with his ostensible party. Conley was a member of the Horry County Republican Committee before seeking the Democratic nomination. He voted for Ron Paul in the primaries, and, consistent with that, is running a paleo-con “America First” campaign that, according to his own campaign website, is “well to [Graham’s] right.” (Check out the precision of his flap-top; he makes Jon Tester look like Sideshow Bob.)
Rasmussen just polled this race for the first time, and to probably everyone’s surprise, it shows Conley within 9 points of Graham, who’s right at the 50% mark. I’m not sure whether this odd result reflects more poorly on Rasmussen (who also found an edge of only 51 McCain-46 Obama from the same sample… which may be fishy, or may be a leading indicator of the blue wave seeping down from Virginia into the Carolinas) or on Graham, who’s never had much luck at wooing social conservatives. Don’t look for the parties to get involved in this one, though, even if further polling continues to bear out these numbers.