Tag: KS-02

We wrote earlier about the NRCC canceling ad buys in NV-03 and NM-01, but a knowledgeable friend of SSP writes in with a few more details on the NRCC’s retreat:

FL-16 – NRCC – TV – cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in West Palm and Ft. Myers

ID-01 – NRCC – TV – Spokane – cancels weeks of 10/7 and 10/14

KS-02 – NRCC – TV – Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in all markets

LA-06 – NRCC-TV- Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in Baton Rouge

MN-03 – NRCC- TV – cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Minneapolis

NV-03 – NRCC – TV – broadcast and cable flights 10/14-10/20 cancelled

TX-22 – NRCC – TV – Cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Houston.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/19-21, likely voters):

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 50

Lynn Jenkins (R): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

Boyda is at the critical 50% mark, and has decent favorability numbers for a frosh Dem in a deep red district (46-32). She still faces a real battle against the top-of-the ticket coattails, as McCain is beating Obama by a 51-38 margin in the district — but even that spread is not as bad as the 59-39 drubbing that Bush delivered to John Kerry here in 2004.

More interesting are the questions related to the energy crisis, including this one:

If two candidates were running for Congress, and one says that offshore drilling is the best way to solve America’s energy problems … and the other says that America needs to identify and promote alternative sources of energy … which candidate would you vote for?

So, considering all the hype surrounding the GOP’s newly-discovered “drill here, drill now” mantra, you would expect offshore drilling to be wildly popular in a conservative R+7.3 district, right? Actually, not so much: Voters here say they would vote for the candidate promoting alternative sources of energy over increased offshore drilling by a 56-34 margin.

Additionally, when asked who was most responsible for high gasoline prices, 38% blamed the oil companies while only 11% blamed environmentalists. President Bush received 10% of the blame, while Congress gobbled up 13%. You can see why the most valued attack line from the party committees this cycle is one that ties GOP candidates to “big oil”.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

A sampling of some of the latest campaign ads cluttering the airwaves:

Boyda wins… sort of. From the Topeka Capitol-Journal:

U.S. Rep. Nancy Bodya, D-Kan., said today the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee complied with her request to withdraw plans for $1.2 million in campaign commercials in her district.

She expressed concern recently the influx of independent advertising in her 2nd District campaign against Republican Lynn Jenkins might too heavily influence the outcome.

“This is terrific news for anyone who believes that Kansas voters should control Kansas campaigns,” Boyda said. “By canceling their ads, the DCCC has given Kansas the chance to run our election without Washington interference.”

Reid Wilson has more:

But the real winners could be State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins and national Republicans. Boyda represents one of the most Republican seats held by a Democrat, and Jenkins, who won the GOP primary on Tuesday, is seen as a moderate with a better chance of winning than her more conservative primary opponent. Now, Democrats are passing up the opportunity to use the advertising money to define Jenkins as she reloads from the costly primary.

The National Republican Congressional Committee deserves credit too, having stayed on Boyda over the past several weeks and making a big deal about her association with her party nationally, and GOP strategists gloated about Democrats’ decision to pull the money.

I’m of two minds on this one. On the one hand, some of the DC Dems that I’ve talked to are actually glad that Jim Ryun lost the GOP primary on Tuesday, as they considered him (and his name recognition) to be the more formidable opponent rather than the “moderate” Jenkins. Indeed, the lone poll we’ve seen of this race showed Boyda in better shape against Jenkins (although she’s probably received a primary bump by now). So the DCCC could be canceling its reservation at least in part because they feel that Boyda is less vulnerable.

On the other hand, Republicans in Kansas have made the DCCC’s assistance an issue only because Boyda clearly chafes at the idea of DC operatives getting involved in her campaign. But Boyda’s distaste for the DCCC’s money didn’t stop the committee from spending heavily on last-minute ads for this race in 2006, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled a similar move (if they felt it necessary) this year. The DCCC could be canceling its planned buy for now only to clear a “distraction” for Boyda off the table, but are likely monitoring the situation closely in case they have to intervene later. But that’s all just speculation on my part.

A quick round-up of last night’s congressional and gubernatorial primaries:

• GA-Sen: Former state Rep. Jim Martin destroyed DeKalb CEO and Bush supporting Democrat Vernon Jones by a 60-40 margin in the Senatorial primary to take on GOP slimeball Saxby Chambliss.
• KS-02: In the biggest shocker of the night, state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins beat ex-Rep. Jim Ryun by a mere 1007 votes (51-49) after trailing heavily in every publicly-released poll during the campaign the campaign. She will now move on to face freshman Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda in the general election.
• MI-13: Incumbent Democrat Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick narrowly survived a three-way primary with 39% of the vote. Former state Rep. Mary Waters came in second with 36%, and state Sen. Martha Scott was third with 25%.
• MO-Gov: GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof beat state Treasurer Sarah Steelman by a 49-45 margin for the Republican nomination to succeed Matt Blunt.
• MO-09: State Rep. Judy Baker beat former Speaker of the Missouri House Steve Gaw handily (44-31) for the Democratic nomination in this open seat race. On the GOP side, former state Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer beat the Club For Growth-backed state Rep. Bob Onder by a 40-29 margin. Sadly, netroots fave Brock Olivo only pulled in 10% of the vote.

Polls are now closed in Kansas and Michigan. We’re following the results in the KS-02 Republican primary and the MI-13 Democratic contest.

RESULTS: KS-02 | MI-13

2:18 AM (Crisitunity): Finally those last few clots of votes came in, in both races! In KS-02, 100% are reporting. Jenkins has 51% (32,240) and Ryun has 49% (31,233).

In MI-13, 99% are reporting. Cheeks Kilpatrick has 39% (20,603), Waters has 36% (19,009). Looks like the incumbent survived.

1:06AM (James): A few more precincts are reporting in Kansas: with 96% in, Jenkins’ lead has grown to 865 votes.

12:45AM: The needles seem stuck in both Kansas and Michigan, and I think I’ll call it a night soon. I’m betting on wins for Jenkins and Kilpatrick.

12:21AM: Kilpatrick is now up by 900 votes. I’d be surprised if she lost.

12:12AM: Cheeks has now take a 111 vote lead. Note that only 71% of precincts are reporting – that’s 1% more votes counted in the last half hour. This could take forever. Then again, Cheeks has done nothing but gain for a long while now. I’d be surprised if that trend reversed itself.

12:02AM: Jenkins’s lead has slipped to just 750 votes (51-49). Still, by my estimates, there may be only around 5,300 or so votes remaining to be counted, and Ryun would need to win those 57-43 to take the lead.

11:46PM: In another nice bit of news out of Kansas, former state AG, current Johnson County DA and all-around fuckwad Phil Kline was defeated in the GOP primary tonight. (Johnson Co. is an affluent KC suburb.)

11:42PM: MI-13 is now as tight as can be. It’s 38-38, with Waters just 60 votes ahead, and a full 30% remaining to be counted.

11:40PM: Could she do it? Jenkins just pushed back out to a 52-48 lead. My back of the envelope says that Ryun needs 57% of the outstanding vote in order to win. In other words, he needs to run a whopping 19 points better than he has all night to eke out the narrowest of wins. It’s certainly possible (who knows just which precincts remain?), but looking harder by the minute.

11:29PM: Waters now has just a 300-vote lead over Kilpatrick. Yipes.

11:26PM: Man, you can practically smell the flop-sweat pouring out of both Jenkins’s and Ryun’s campaign HQs tonight. It’s now back to 51-49 Jenkins with 56% of the vote in. If we’re lucky, we’ll go to a recount.

11:15PM: Meanwhile, over in MI-07, top-tier recruit Mark Schauer is winning his primary over repeat candidate Sharon Renier by just 65-35. Renier has raised only $10K all told this cycle. Not an inspiring showing.

11:10PM: Crikey – it’s 38-37 in MI-13 now, 65% of the vote counted. In all likelihood, the suburbs reported first and now we’re getting a slow trickle from the city of Detroit itself. That’s Cheeks Kilpatrick’s base, which would explain why the gap is closing if true.

10:59PM: Things are getting tighter in MI-13. With 62% of the vote in, Waters leads Kilpatrick by just 39-36, with Scott far behind at 25. You’d have to believe that this would have been a rout with only one challenger.

10:50PM: Now 43% is in and the race in KS-02 remains remarkably stable – Jenkins still on top with 52-48.

10:35PM: A full third of the vote has been tallied in KS-02, and Lynn Jenkins has widened her lead just a touch, to 52-48. If somehow she holds on through the night, this could be a fairly big upset.

10:27PM (James): With 49% in, it’s now 40-34-26 (Waters-Cheeks Kilpatrick-Scott). In KS-02, with 33% of the vote in, it’s 52-48 Jenkins — a stunning turnaround given her consistently weak performance in all of the polling we’ve seen of this race.

10:12PM: With 21% of the vote in, it’s still 51-49 Jenkins.

9:55PM (James): With 27% counted, it’s now 42-30-28 in MI-13. Over in KS-02, Jenkins is maintaining her 51-49 lead with 10% in.

9:40PM: It’s now 43-34-23 in MI-13 (Waters-Scott-Cheeks Kilpatrick), with 9% of the vote recorded.

9:39PM: With 7% in, Jenkins is holding her 51-49 lead over Ryun.

9:21PM (James): With only 1% of precincts reporting, Lynn Jenkins has a 51-49 edge over Jim Ryun in the KS-02 primary. I’d be stunned if she held onto that lead, though. Kilpatrick continues to lag in third place in MI-13 with 6% in.

9:17PM (James): With just 3% of precincts reporting, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is lagging in third place behind Mary Waters and Martha Scott (respectively) at 46-38-18.

SSP will be busy tonight, with hot primaries in four states:

• GA-Sen (D runoff)
• KS-02 (R)
• MI-13 (D)
• MO-Gov (R)
• MO-09 (D & R)

Crisitunity gave us a thorough look at all of these races on Friday.

In the comments, feel free to post your predictions for these races. Whoever posts the closest numbers gets free bragging rights until the TN-09 primary on Thursday.

After a quiet July, we’re back in the thick of primary season in August.

August 5

GA-Sen (Runoff): When we last checked in, the primary for the Democratic nomination for the Georgia Senate race had gone to a runoff, with none of the five candidates clearing 50% in the July 15 primary. Bush-enabling DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones led the field with 41%; ex-State Rep. Jim Martin came in second with 34%. This makes it look like Jones has the edge, but Martin has a good shot at consolidating the anti-Jones votes that were dispersed among the four white candidates. A late June poll shows Martin with a much better shot at beating Saxby Chambliss in the general than Jones has.

KS-02: Nancy Boyda, who won an upset victory in this R+7 district in 2006, has had to sit and wait while Jim Ryun, the former Representative that she beat, and Lynn Jenkins, the Kansas State Treasurer, beat the snot out of each other in the primary. (Ryun was one of the most conservative members of the House; Jenkins is considered a moderate, at least by Kansas standards.) Ryun and Jenkins have raised a fair amount of money, but have had to spend it on each other, and an internal poll from June gives Boyda a sizable edge over each one. Still, this is a Lean D race and Boyda is widely regarded as one of our most endangered incumbents.

MI-13: Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in a three-way fight with ex-State Rep. Mary Waters and State Sen. Martha Scott in the Democratic primary. She’s a long-time incumbent, but scandal involving her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, is dragging her down, and a poll this week shows her in the lead but only with 33% of the vote.

MO-Gov: Representative Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman are vying for the Republican nomination to succeed Governor Matt Blunt, retiring at the ripe old age of 37 in the face of massive unpopularity. Polling gives the edge to Hulshof in the primary, but either one of them looks like a speed bump in the road for four-term Attorney General Jay Nixon, making this the Dems’ likelist state house pick-up.

MO-09: Kenny Hulshof is leaving behind this open seat in his quest to become Governor, giving the Dems a good shot at picking up this R+7 seat (represented by conservative Dem Harold Volkmer before Hulshof). There are competitive primaries in both parties. On the GOP side, most of the action is between State Rep. Bob Onder and State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer. (Although the presence of ex-football star Brock Olivo keeps things lively.) Onder is backed by the Club for Growth, Luetkemeyer is backed by Missouri Right to Life, and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch couldn’t bring itself to endorse either of them.

On the Dem side, the leading contenders are State Rep. Judy Baker and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw. Marion County Commissioner Lyndon Bode and ex-State Sen. Ken Jacob are also viable candidates. Baker (from the university town of Columbia) seems about as liberal as is viable in this district, Gaw is a bit to her right (although he did come out strongly against retroactive immunity) while the others are pretty Blue Doggish. Baker, who was running before Hulshof dropped out, leads the money chase. In absence of any polls, though, the race on both sides is a big question mark.

August 7

TN-09: Representative Steve Cohen, who picked up Harold Ford’s old Memphis-based seat in 2006, is being challenged by another one of the 2006 contenders, Nikki Tinker. Regrettably, this race has been defined by identity politics: race, gender, and religion, rather than ideology (which is important, as Cohen, the white guy, is quite progressive, while Tinker, the African-American woman, is running to his right). The district’s 60% African-American composition gives an advantage to Tinker, but internal polling in May gave a huge edge to Cohen. At D+18, it’s safe for the Dems in the general.

TN-01, TN-07: Two members of Tennessee’s wingnut patrol face primary challenges from other wingnuts hoping to capitalize on discontent within the wingnut base. In TN-01, freshman Rep. David Davis (who won the last primary with 22% of the vote) faces a rematch with 2006 contender Johnson City mayor Phil Roe. And in TN-07, Marsha Blackburn is up against Shelby County Register of Deeds Tom Leatherwood, who released an internal poll showing him within striking distance. These races don’t seem to be about much other than “my turn,” and Dems aren’t in a place to capitalize in these deep-red districts (R+14 and R+12), but they’re worth keeping an eye on.

August 12

CO-02: In this safe Dem (D+8) district based in Boulder, there’s a heated race to replace soon-to-be-Senator Mark Udall. State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Board of Education chairman and Internet entrepreneur Jared Polis, and Colorado Conservation Trust executive director Will Shafroth are all strong candidates. Conventional wisdom seems to mostly focus on Fitz-Gerald and the self-funding Polis, but Shafroth has picked up the major newspaper endorsements. Polis may be a smidge to the left of the other candidates (he’s openly gay and a Responsible Plan endorser).

CO-05: Doug Lamborn is another freshman wingnut who ruffled a lot of feathers in his first election (to the extent that his predecessor, Joel Hefley, refused to endorse him). He faces off against two of his 2006 challengers, former Hefley aide Jeff Crank and ex-AF Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn. Crank and Rayburn originally entered into a gentlemen’s agreement where one would drop out based on polling to avoid splitting the anti-Lamborn vote, but that agreement collapsed, leaving Crank and Rayburn attacking each other instead. It’s probably all for naught anyway, as their joint internal poll gives a big edge to Lamborn. Whoever wins has a big edge against Dem Hal Bidlack in this R+16 district.

CO-06: There’s a crowded field of Republicans trying to pick up where the retiring Tom Tancredo leaves off. Mike Coffman, the Colorado Secretary of State, seems to be slight front runner against businessman (and son of long-ago Senator Bill Armstrong) Wil Armstrong, according to Armstrong’s internal polling. Armstrong, despite not having held office, boasts some key endorsements, including retiring Sen. Wayne Allard and Mitt Romney. Two state senators, Ted Harvey and Steve Ward, are also vying for the seat. Local activist Steve Collins will represent the Dems in the general in this R+10 district.

Look for the 8-19 primaries in Washington and Wyoming, and the 8-26 primaries in Alaska and Florida, in Part II.

On August 5th, congressional primaries will be decided in Kansas, Missouri and Michigan. The FEC requires candidates in these states to file fundraising reports covering the extended period of 4/1 through 7/16 by midnight tonight. We’ve rounded up all the numbers of interest in a handy chart below (which we’ve inserted into our 2Q round-up chart):

All numbers, of course, are in thousands.

You might notice that our numbers for Kay Barnes don’t jive with the figure reported for her by the Politico’s Josh Kraushaar. Our chart pegs Barnes’ pre-primary fundraising at $463K, while Kraushaar reports that Barnes raised $601K. I’m not sure where Josh is getting his numbers from, but if you look at the actual filing, you’ll note that Barnes’ net contributions line matches our figure, and her total receipts for the quarter were still well under the Politico’s number.

Anzalone Liszt for Nancy Boyda (5/12-15, likely voters):

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 54

Jim Ryun (R): 37

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 57

Lynn Jenkins (R): 27

(n=403)

Those are some very impressive numbers for Boyda, whom many have considered in serious jeopardy this year as she begins her first re-election campaign.   But her re-elects (54-35) and her job approval rating (68-21) are very strong. Particularly impressive is her performance against ex-Rep. Ryun, who must have some significant name recognition in the district.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-38 in Kansas’ 2nd CD. In 2004, Bush smoked Kerry by 59-39 in this district.

Special thanks to the good folks over at Boyda Bloc for sharing these numbers.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.