Tag: Ron Klein

• NY-20 (pdf): There’s light at the end of the tunnel in the NY-20 count, and as we get closer, Scott Murphy’s numbers keep going up. This morning’s BoE tally gives him a lead of 167, following the addition of more votes from Columbia, Dutchess, and Warren Counties (all of which Murphy won on Election Day).

Apparently all Saratoga County votes are accounted for, except for 700 challenged ballots, which, thanks to yesterday’s court ruling, will be counted. (While Saratoga County in general is Jim Tedisco’s turf, the Tedisco camp’s heavy use of challenges of student votes suggests that these votes may include a lot of votes from artsy Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, which one would expect to lean Democratic.)

• CO-Sen: Finally, a GOPer commits to the Colorado senate race against appointee Michael Bennet. It’s Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, who made his announcement while teabagging in Grand Junction. Frazier is 31 and African-American, so he brings an interesting backstory to the race, but it’s unclear whether his strength among conservative activists can overcome his otherwise low profile in the GOP primary (assuming anyone else bothers to show up).

• FL-Sen: Quinnipiac takes another look at the Florida senate race; not much has changed since last time, although one noteworthy finding is that Floridians would prefer to see Charlie Crist remain as governor rather than jump to senate, by a 42-26 margin. That doesn’t stop him from crushing in the senate primary (Crist beats Marco Rubio and Vern Buchanan 54-8-8). Buchanan leads a Crist-free primary, while on the Dem side, Kendrick Meek narrowly leads Pam Iorio (16-15, with 8 for Ron Klein, 5 from Dan Gelber, and a whole lotta undecideds).

• PA-Sen: John Peterson isn’t a make-or-break endorsement, but the former GOP representative from rural PA-05 said that he won’t support Arlen Specter’s re-election bid in 2010. He stopped short of endorsing Pat Toomey (Peterson supported Specter in the 2004 primary), but said it was time for Specter to retire. In other completely unsurprising endorsement news, the Club for Growth (of which Pat Toomey was president until several days ago) today endorsed Toomey’s bid. Laugh all you want, but Toomey will need all the financial help he can get; Specter hauled in $1.3 million in Q1 and is sitting on $6.7 million CoH.

• TX-Sen: Our friends at Burnt Orange Report have a nice graph showing Bill White and John Sharp dominating the fundraising chase so far in the hypothetical Texas senate race. (The chart doesn’t include GOP heavyweights Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and AG Greg Abbott, who haven’t taken formal steps for the race, but whose cash stashes are state-specific, putting them back to fundraising square one if they ran for senate.)

• CT-Sen: If Chris Dodd is going to win again in 2010, it’s going to be on the back of money, not popularity. Luckily, he still has lots of the former, as big-money donors aren’t being scared off by his poll numbers: he raised $1 million in the first quarter, with $1.4 million CoH.

• MN-Sen (pdf): Minnesotans would like the madness to stop, and would like to have a 2nd senator. PPP finds that 63% think that Norm Coleman should concede right now, and 59% (including 54% of independents) think Tim Pawlenty should sign Al Franken’s certificate of election right now. (This should give Pawlenty some pause as to whether or not to create further delay in the name of partisan politics, as he’s about the only person left who can drag this out.)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $542K in the first quarter, only about half of what Robin Carnahan raised. Our JeremiahTheMessiah came up with the best possible headline for this story:

Carnahan Smokes Blunt… In Fundraising

• GA-Gov: As reported in the diaries yesterday by fitchfan28, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropped out of the gubernatorial race, citing health concerns. Cagle was more-or-less front-runner, and his departure leaves SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine to slug it out for the GOP.

• IL-10, PA-07: Two huge fundraising hauls (by House standards) from two candidates who may be looking to move up. Mark Kirk, who pulled in $696K in the first quarter, is supposed to decide soon whether or not to try for IL-Sen. (He has only $597K CoH, though, after burning through all his cash defending his seat in 2008. So he may just be raising hard in expectation of another top-tier challenge in 2010 in this blue district.)

Joe Sestak raised $550K in the first quarter, leaving him sitting on a mongo $3.3 million. Could this… plus his suddenly increased media presence, as he talks the defense budget and Don’t Ask Don’t Tell… be tea leaves that he may be the Dem who jumps into PA-Sen after all? (Sestak has previously declined, and he’s always been mentioned as an afterthought in this race after Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy. But neither of them have made any moves, leaving Joe Torsella the only Dem challenger so far.)

• Numbers: California’s Secretary of State office finally released its Supplement to the Statement of Vote, heaven for nerds. Now you can look up Presidential and Prop 8 votes not just by congressional district, but by state senate or assembly district or even Board of Equalization district.

• CT-Sen: The new lovefest between Joe Lieberman and the Democratic Party seems to be reaching the point where they need to get a room. In the wake of yesterday’s endorsement of Chris Dodd, Lieberman is today floating the idea of running in 2012 in the Democratic primary, instead of just as an independent. (Of course, unless Connecticut passes a sore loser law in the next few years, what’s the downside? If he loses the Dem primary again, he can just switch back to CfL one more time.)

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The GOP is running out of options for a good challenger to Harry Reid. Former state senator Joe Heck (who lost his Las Vegas-area seat last year) has decided to run in the GOP primary against chronically embattled governor Jim Gibbons instead. (Although if Heck is going against Gibbons, what is Rep. Dean Heller planning to do then?) With ex-Rep. Jon Porter taking the K Street route and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki under indictment, the GOP’s Nevada bench is nearly empty.

• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella won’t have the Democratic primary in the Pennsylvania senate race to himself. State Rep. Josh Shapiro, a 35-year-old reform-minded legislator from the Philadelphia suburbs, is now exploring the race. This may be a tea leaf that Rep. Allyson Schwartz isn’t getting in the primary, as Shapiro (who’s in PA-13) would likely run for Schwartz’s seat instead if it were going to be open.

• CA-32: EMILY’s List has weighed in in the CA-32 primary, and they’re endorsing… believe it or not… the woman in the race: Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu. Chu’s main competition is state senator Gil Cedillo, who comes in with the endorsement of nearby House members like Xavier Becerra, Linda Sanchez, and Grace Napolitano (Hilda Solis, who used to occupy CA-32, hasn’t endorsed). The district is about 65% Hispanic and 20% Asian.

• NH-01, NH-02: We’re looking at a crowded field for Republican opponents to Carol Shea-Porter: John Stephen, who barely lost the primary last time to ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, is eyeing the race, as is Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. Businessman Jim Wieczorek also plans to run. Meanwhile, next door in the open NH-02, radio host Jennifer Horn says there’s a good chance she’ll run again in 2010.  

• FL-22: State house majority leader Adam Hasner has been launching a series of attacks on Rep. Ron Klein over EFCA… is this a preview of the 2010 race? (It’s a Dem-leaning district, but Klein’s 2008 victory margin wasn’t impressive.)

• Votes: Also on the EFCA front, Campaign Diaries has an impressively thorough chart head-counting the positions staked out by all the Democratic senators (and potential GOP votes).

• Blue Dogs: After lifting their self-imposed 20%-of-the-Dem-caucus cap to expand to 51 members, the Blue Dogs are talking about growing again, to 56 members. No word on who that might be (although the door’s apparently open to Scott Murphy if he wins).

• NRSC: Roll Call is running a story today with the banner headline “McConnell Criticizes GOP for Lack of Diversity.” What’s next? “Sanders Criticizes KFC for Serving Chicken?”

Here’s the full write up on each race. 

OK, I know we just came off of 2008, and there were a lot of competitive races nationally, as well as in Florida. But, 10 is just a big number. I mean we’ve only got 25 seats in the House, so 10 of them being competitive is a huge deal. Don’t get too excited though, they aren’t all possible D pickups.

2nd (Tallahassee, etc.): Congressman Allen Boyd, a Blue Dog, is being primary challenged by Al Lawson, term-out state Senate leader. Lawson, no true progressive, will run to the Left of Boyd. My prediction: the challenge never really materializes, and Boyd keeps his seat.



8th (Orlando, etc.): Grayson beat Keller here in 2008. Since winning, Grayson has shown his true colors as an ‘aggressive’ progressive. Nothing wrong with that in my book, but will his voters find him out of sync with them? I think it’s less of a question about Grayson but more about who the Rs can put up against him.



10th (St. Petersburg, etc.) Will Bill Young ever retire?



12th  (Lakeland, etc.) Adam Putnam is vacating to run for Ag Commissioner. Dennis Ross, former state Senator, is the defacto Republican nominee; Lori Edwards, Polk county Supervisor of Elections, is the prominent D in the race. Definitely will be a race to watch.



13th (Sarasota, etc.) What is Vern Buchanan doing? He’s talking about a Senate race; perhaps because the Ds will never let him just have the district. If he vacates, watch for a strong race in a tight district.



16th (Palm Beach County, etc.) Southern Political Report ranks this one. I’m not so sure it’s competitive. Tom Rooney will win again, but he will be challenged by a strong D. Just not sure the D will ever be able to take off.



17th (Miami, etc.) Who will replace K-Meek? Whoever wins this primary will be the new Rep.



22nd (Fort Lauderdale, etc.) This is another, ‘What will person X do?’ race. Ron Klein may get into the Senate race. Even if he doesn’t, he will never go unchallenged in this swingy district. But, if he runs for reelection, Klein should sail to victory again.



24th (Orlando, etc.) Kosmas, who just took her seat in January, will face a strong, but yet to be determined, Republican. Feeney had questionable morals, which inevitably led to his downfall. The national Rs will look to the 24th to run a strong campaign and reclaim the district.



25th (Miami, etc.): The 3 Miami area Ds who ran in 2008 never took off in their races like the national party expected. But, expect to see strong races again down in the Miami area. In the 25th, Joe Garcia will likely again challenge Mario Diaz Balart, but just ask Christine Jennings what happens to second time candidates.

So those are my thoughts. What are yours?  

Quinnipiac (1/14-19, registered voters):

Alex Sink (D): 15

Kendrick Meek (D): 13

Ron Klein (D): 9

Allen Boyd (D): 8

Dan Gelber (D): 1

Don’t know: 54

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Bill McCollum (R): 22

Connie Mack IV (R): 21

Vern Buchanan (R): 10

Marco Rubio (R): 6

Allan Bense (R): 2

Don’t know: 39

(MoE: ±4.3%)

If the primary elections for the Florida senate race were held today, “Don’t know” would sweep both nominations in a landslide. At this point, this is a name recognition test, and Floridians seem to have no idea who these candidates are. At any rate, there seems to be something of a hierarchy here: statewide officials (Sink, McCollum) fare best, then U.S. Representatives, with state legislative leaders down in no man’s land.

On the Dem side, Kendrick Meek has the edge among current candidates. But assuming that he comes in with fairly high name rec from being in the state’s largest media market, and that he’s probably already consolidated the state’s African-American vote, he may not have as much room to grow as the other candidates.

Unfortunately, this poll has a major wrinkle; it was in the field when Alex Sink announced that she wasn’t going to be a Senate candidate, so presumably some respondents were operating under the assumption that Sink was a likely candidate while others knew that she wouldn’t be. In fact, the only head-to-head Quinnipiac tried out involved Sink as the Dem nominee (McCollum 36, Sink 35, with 29 don’t know). Here’s hoping they try again soon with some other permutations.

Via Roll Call:

House Democratic leaders made an impassioned final plea Thursday night to get their rank and file to cough up more money for their effort to expand the party’s majority, just as Members are set to head home to hit the campaign trail a month before Election Day.

In a closed-door Democratic Caucus meeting, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) implored their colleagues to come up with the $14 million in Members’ dues needed to meet their overall $50 million goal, according to people who were present.

While we still have a cash advantage over the NRCC, the number of seats in play as we approach crunch time is so enormous that even the relatively hale DCCC needs a big money infusion to stay competitive everywhere. This is a once-in-a-generation (or perhaps lifetime) opportunity, and we need every last dime we can get. The good news is that members of our caucus still have a lot they can give:

Democratic lawmakers who are not politically in danger or in competitive races are collectively sitting on roughly $153 million in their re-election accounts, according to party tally sheets. (Emphasis added.)

Fortunately, it looks like some Dems are seriously stepping it up:

Several Members announced on the spot that they were writing checks, according to sources in the room.

Rep. Chet Edwards (Texas), who is included in the DCCC’s “Frontline” program for vulnerable incumbents even though his re-election in November seems certain, said he wouldn’t be in Congress if it weren’t for the generosity of the Caucus and announced he was giving $100,000 – news that elicited audible gasps from his peers.

Edwards sits in the reddest district held by a Democrat in the entire country – Texas’s 17th CD gave 70% of its vote to George Bush. Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22) gave another $100K on top of the $100K he’s already given, and he’s only a freshman. If folks like Edwards and Klein can kick it up a notch, then almost every other member can as well. Time’s a-wastin’.

From Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire:

“Alan Schlesinger — the Republican who got 10 percent in last year’s Connecticut Senate race against independent Joe Lieberman and Democratic flash-in-the-pan Ned Lamont — is sniffing a possible congressional bid for the seat of new U.S. Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL),” according to the Palm Beach Post. “Schlesinger says he’s been spending a few months a year in Palm Beach County for about 20 years and has family here. He recently spoke to the Boca Raton Republican Club.”

“The GOP wants to retake the marginally Republican seat Klein won from 26-year Republican incumbent Clay Shaw last year. But big-name local Rs have so far stayed on the sidelines.”

This one gives me the giggles.  I think we would all warmly welcome the return of Alan Gold, no?