Tag: ME-01

With congressional primaries in Maine, South Carolina, and Virginia on June 10th, the deadline for candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC for the period from 4/1 to 5/21 passed at midnight.  Let’s round-up the numbers from all the hot races (all figures are subject to rounding and listed in the thousands; loans not included):

“Under the radar” races are my favorite, so let’s take a look at SC-01 and SC-02, two deeply red seats with surprisingly strong Democratic challengers.

In SC-01, businesswoman/civic leader Linda Ketner has raised ($430K) and spent ($398K) quite a bit money so far. She’s also loaned her campaign $350,000 so far. This is some serious money for an R+9.6 district — and she needs to be posting these kinds of figures, when the incumbent is sitting on $1.3 million cash on hand.

Also impressive is SC-02’s Rob Miller. An Iraq vet, Miller entered the race in March and has raised nearly $200K and lent his campaign an additional $100K. Again, very respectable scrilla for an R+8.9 district.

Rep. Tom Allen of Maine’s 1st District has made it official: he’s filed his papers to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins.  Check out his video message and his new website here.

From a press statement:

Portland, Maine—Maine Congressman Tom Allen today filed A Statement of Candidacy form with the Secretary of the Senate to become a candidate for the United States Senate in 2008.  His campaign simultaneously launched a new website (http://www.tomallen.org) that includes a digital video statement from Congressman Allen about today’s filing.  In the statement, Allen says that he will conduct an announcement tour of the state when Congress adjourns for Memorial Day.  He said he is looking forward to a substantive debate on the issues and that he believes voters will see a clear contrast between his priorities and record and those of the incumbent. 

“Maine people tell me that they want our involvement in the Iraq War- the worst foreign policy mistake in our nation’s history -to end,” Congressman Allen says in the video announcement.  “From the beginning, when President Bush rushed to invade Iraq, Susan Collins has supported his misguided policy.  I fought to stop it.  She voted for the Iraq War.  I voted against it.  Susan Collins continues to vote with the Republicans against a timetable to end the War in Iraq.  I voted for a responsible change of course to bring our troops safely home.”

Republicans will likely point to Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s overwhelming victory last year in a Democratic wave year, but, simply put: Collins is no Snowe, and Allen is certainly no Jean Hay Bright.  On top of that, Snowe’s continued capitulation to the out-of-control Republican leadership in the U.S. Senate is not going to win her any accolades in her home state, especially as more and more local media outlets are turning against the Bush/Collins position on Iraq.

Race Tracker: ME-Sen

Earlier in the day, Markos billed the likely matchup between Maine’s Rep. Tom Allen (D) and Susan Collins (R) for control of her Senate seat in 2008 as a “battle of the titans”, which leads me to ask: does Allen really have what it takes to win this thing?

Now, I’m not trying to say that Allen is a weak candidate.  In a state with only two House districts, it’s clear that Allen would be a fairly serious threat to an entrenched Collins.  But with a Senator as popular as Collins (who enjoys a whopping 73% approval last November, according to the latest SUSA tracking poll in November), Allen will have to execute a perfect campaign in order to win.

Let’s check his track record as of late.  Here’s how he fared in 2006, according to CNN:

Allen (D): 61
Curley (R): 31
Kamilewicz (I): 8

And here’s his 2004 performance:

Allen (D): 60
Summers (R): 40

Allen’s district has a PVI of D+6.2.  His House colleague, Democrat Mike Michaud, occupies a seat that’s a shade less Democratic at D+3.5.  In his sophomore re-election bid in 2004, he won by a margin of 58-39, a margin very similar to Allen’s, who had been serving since 1998 by this point.  In 2006, Michaud crushed his Republican opponent by a 70-30 margin.

Now, there are a lot of dynamics left unstated here: Kamilewicz, his 2006 third-party opponent, ran a peace campaign that probably cut into his left flank, although it only cost a mere $42,000.  And while Allen enjoyed a 4-1 spending advantage over Republican Darlene Curley in 2006, he didn’t exactly saturate the market with his total expenditures of $650,000.  But the point I’m trying to make is this: winning with 60%, especially in a Democratic year such as 2006, doesn’t leave me feeling overwhelmed.

Does anyone have a better sense as to why Allen hasn’t been able to peak above 60% since 2002?