Rasmussen (10/13, likely voters, 8/11 in parentheses) (primary release):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 40 (36)
Pat Toomey (R): 45 (48)
Some other: 6 (4)Joe Sestak (D): 38 (35)
Pat Toomey (R): 37 (43)
Some other: 6 (5)
(MoE: ±3%)Arlen Specter(D-inc): 46 (47)
Joe Sestak (D): 42 (34)
Other: 2
(MoE: ±5%)
Arlen Specter’s party switch, which looked like smart self-preservation at the time, may not be doing him any favors these days, as he looks to be stuck between the Scylla and Charybdis of Rep. Joe Sestak and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey. Specter finds himself losing to Toomey in the general (though not by as wide a margin as Rasmussen saw in August at the height of town-hall-mania), and now he finds Sestak pulling within the margin of error on his left, making Rasmussen the first pollster to see a single-digit race in the Dem primary.
Also very interesting: Rasmussen continues its trend (verified by Dane & Associates earlier this week) of finding, contrary to conventional wisdom, that Sestak polls better against Toomey than does Specter, casting doubt on whatever moderate electability argument Specter might make. Rasmussen finds Specter with 46/52 favorables (with only 2% unsure), so he has little room to grow. Toomey clocks in at 52/27; Sestak is least-known, at 37/34 with 30% not sure, so that seems to give him the highest ceiling.
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (10/7-12, registered voters, 5/26-30 in parens (general only)):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (46)
Pat Toomey (R): 41 (37)
None/other: 4 (4)
Undecided: 12 (13)Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44
Joe Sestak (D): 16
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Republican pollster Susquehanna also came out with a Senate poll a few days ago, and although it gives him it a bigger edge over Sestak, it shouldn’t fill Specter with much joy either. He barely squeaks by Toomey (a 1-point lead, down from 9 in May before things started to go haywire for him), and he’s looking at a “deserves re-election” number of 31% (versus 59% “someone else”).
As a throw-in, they also tested the Republican gubernatorial primary, where AG Tom Corbett leads Rep. Jim Gerlach 36-13 with 50% undecided. There are no numbers released for a Sestak/Toomey head-to-head, or the gubernatorial Dem primary or general.
RaceTracker: PA-Sen