LA-Sen: Vitter In Danger of Getting Spanked (Electorally, That Is)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/2-4, registered voters):

Charlie Melancon (D): 41

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Don Cazayoux (D): 39

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Charlie Melancon (D): 40

Jay Dardenne (R): 49

Don Cazayoux (D): 38

Jay Dardenne (R): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

David Vitter (R-inc): 43

Jay Dardenne (R): 32

Stormy Daniels (R): 1

(MoE: ±5%)

David Vitter still seems to have an edge in his quest for re-election to his Louisiana senate seat, but it looks like he could have a rocky time of it in both the primary and the general. Vitter is polling below the 50% mark in each, and he has a lukewarm 49/42 favorable/unfavorable.

Vitter performs about the same against both Democrats polled (Rep. Charlie Melancon and ex-Rep. Don Cazayoux, neither of whom seem to be moving in the direction of running). Neither Melancon nor Cazayoux seems well-known outside their respective districts, so this is basically a test of “Generic D.” (Names that get talked up more as the eventual candidate include ex-Rep. Chris John, who lost to Vitter in 2004, and former Louisiana Democratic Party head Jim Bernhard, not that either of them are well-known, either.)

On the other hand, notice that Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne perfoms just as well as David Vitter, if slightly better. It may be that we’re seeing “Generic R” on the GOP side as well, and partisan lines are pretty hard-set (at least at this point, before people know much about the individual candidates). Dardenne is being talked up for the race by others, but publicly has been noncommital so far; out of all the favorables/unfavorables in this poll, Dardenne fares the best of anybody at 48/22.

Despite Dardenne’s favorables, Vitter beats Dardenne in the primary — not surprising, given how conservative the Louisiana GOP base is, and that Dardenne is something of a moderate figure while Vitter has been charging to the right. However, there’s a wild card here that wasn’t polled: Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins, who has made his interest in the race known. It would be interesting to see Perkins polled in this race, both whether the polarizing religious right talking head would fare worse than Vitter in the general, and his effect on the primary. It’s possible that in a 3-way primary, with Vitter and Perkins splitting the hard-right vote, Dardenne could sneak through with the support of what passes for moderates in Louisiana. (As you can see, the Stormy Daniels candidacy hasn’t aroused much interest yet, although I’m sure she won’t take that lying down.)

Louisiana SecState Dardenne (R-Baton Rouge) following RACIST Republican Script

Cross posted over at Daily Kingfish and Daily Kos

Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, (R-Baton Rouge) in testimony to the House Government Affairs Committee on 2 May 2007 used a racist code word in support of his position to deny Louisianans displaced by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita the right to vote in Louisiana elections. 


He was invited to give his opinion on Jalila Jefferson-Bullock’s HB 619, which would extend the right of displaced persons to vote in Louisiana elections for the upcoming gubernatorial election this fall. 


The code word used by Secretary Dardenne?  Chaos.


UPDATE: Don’t believe this?  Then click here
and go to 2 May 2007, and click on House Gov Affairs.  It’ll launch Real Player, and in the interest of saving you 3 hours, skip to 2:40, and watch from there.

Many younger folks won’t remember this, as they weren’t alive for it … (I wasn’t) … but Richard Nixon, back in 1968, used the words “law and order” in campaign commercials while showing scenes of riots in urban areas.  In other words, the commercial showed scenes of African-Americans rioting in the urban centers of America the summer after Dr. King was shot, and the voice-over said, Richard Nixon will restore law and order to America, or some variation of it.  This was the beginning of the Southern Strategy for the Republicans, one which emphasized white power over people of color.  And Secretary Dardenne is proudly following that script. 


For Secretary Dardenne to use the word “chaos” in describing the use of satellite voting locations during the New Orleans Mayoral election in 2006 is ingenious at best, racist as hell at worst.  Obviously, most of the displaced folks in New Orleans that haven’t been able to return are African-American, as the only section of the city that is still largely uninhabitable is the 9th Ward, which includes the Lower 9th, which is still a ghost town today.  And guess who most of the residents of the 9th Ward were?  African-Americans. 


During his testimony, he constantly changed his reasons for not being supportive of this bill … First, it was that his office has no money to conduct early voting, then it was that there no one to run the effort, then it was that his office didn’t have any voting machines, then it was that his office spent too much money on the voting machines, then it was that it took too much time to count ballots, then it was the whole process was chaos, and too difficult to implement, and too susceptible to fraud. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?


Of all those “reasons,” the fraud one is most serious one.  The way to combat such fraud is simple … making sure that every Registrar of Voters office throughout the State of Louisiana has access to the voting records for the 11 Parishes affected by the bill, and OVERSIGHT.  Each displaced person who comes forward to vote in a different parish has to sign a statement stating that they are the person they claim to be, and leave some current contact information.  If it turns out that someone is committing fraud, guess what?  By signing that statement, they are essentially saying, “If I am lying, you have the right to prosecute me for misrepresentation.”  And if someone commits fraud in such an instance, then, by all means, Mr. Dardenne, prosecute their lying behind.


For someone who makes no secret about his desire to be Governor, running an election is difficult?!  Mr. Dardenne, running an election is a cakewalk compared to governing Louisiana.  Perhaps you better stick to the Secretary of State’s office for awhile.  Or better yet, just go home when your term is up.

The bottom line is that Secretary Dardenne objects to having to spend some MONEY for early voting in satellite locations throughout Louisiana for voters who say they have been displaced from their parish of residence. We’re not even talking about going to Atlanta, or Houston, or Denver, where quite a few of our citizens were displaced to.  We’re talking about putting a freaking voting machine in the Registrar of Voters offices throughout the state of LOUISIANA, in the event that a displaced New Orleanian, or a displaced resident of Cameron, shows up in another parish’s Registrar of Voters office to vote in the gubernatorial election.


Guess what?  Democracy ain’t free.  Over the last 204 years, Louisianans have shed their BLOOD for our right to vote, and are currently doing so in Iraq and Afghanistan, and our lovely Secretary of State is opposed to spending some MONEY to allow some of our citizens to exercise their right to vote. 

Give him a call … and let him know he’s WRONG on this issue.  1-800-883-2805 … and make him spend some more money while you’re at it.

LA-Sen: First Poll Has Landrieu Up By 15

Southern Media and Opinion Research has the first poll of the year for the Democrats’ biggest defensive target up in 2008, the Louisiana Senate seat held by Mary Landrieu.  In a hypothetical matchup between Sen. Landrieu and recently-elected Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, they come up with this snapshot (Jan. 12-14, likely voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-Inc.): 53
Jay Dardenne (R): 38
MoE: ±4%

The poll also notes that Dardenne (who, at this point, is only one of several possible challengers to Landrieu) has a name-recognition of two-thirds in the state.  It’s nice to see Landrieu in the lead, but this it’s still way too early to get a feel for this race.  As the polling firm notes, on paper, Dardenne seems to be a fairly good challenger–already enjoying good statewide name recognition (but still with some room to grow), and 15 points is by no means an insurmountable gap at this stage in the game.  Still, in light of all of the disastrous polls showing Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) trailing Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) in the 2007 Governor’s race by as much as 24 points, it’s nice to know that the state may not ready for a complete Democratic purge just yet.  Republicans will still wisely throw everything that they have at this one, though.

(Hat-tip to rob.)

Race Tracker:  LA-Sen