Tag: Rich Whitney

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (6/12-13, likely voters, 4/1-5 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 30 (33)

Bill Brady (R): 34 (43)

Rich Whitney (G): 9 (NA)

Undecided: 27 (24)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

If you have a 27/50 approval rating — as Illinois governor Pat Quinn currently does — that means you’re rather unlikely to win an election. There are a few other governors who are plumbing these depths of unpopularity, but they aren’t running for re-election (or in the case of Jim Gibbons, already got bounced in the primary).

Quinn should feel lucky that the GOP put their worst foot forward with Bill Brady, though, as he’d be probably be in unsalvageable territory against, say, Kirk Dillard. A majority have no opinion about Brady, and those who do are split at a tepid 22/22. That gives Quinn the opportunity to try and define Brady as too right-wing for Illinois, and, while it’s too much to hope that Brady can become as unpopular as Quinn, get him unpopular enough that Illinois’s Democratic lean can do the rest of the work. Quinn might also be heartened by the high performance for Rich Whitney (who, it should be noted, also polled in double digits against Rod Blagojevich in 2006 — but that wasn’t a close race, and anti-Blago Dems were free to cast protest votes). In a close race, strategic-minded left-leaning voters might sigh and decide to vote for Quinn, nose held, than waste a protest vote on Whitney, given the conservative alternative in Brady.

Victory Research (2/4-7, likely voters)

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 42

Bill Brady (R): 31

Rich Whitney (G): 4

Undecided: 23

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 41

Kirk Dillard (R): 35

Rich Whitney (G): 3

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Here’s the first post-primary poll of the Illinois governor’s race, and it shows Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in OK shape for re-election, suggesting that he may not have taken on quite as much water during the heated Democratic primary as might be feared. The poll is from Victory Research, a firm I’ve never heard of before; they claim this is an “independent” poll, although, interestingly, they’ve done work for both Quinn and Republican state Sen. Kirk Dillard in the past.

As you probably know, the GOP primary has yet to be decided, and probably won’t be for several months, which is why they poll two GOPers despite the primary being two weeks old. State Sen. Bill Brady has a 406-vote edge for now, and Quinn should root for Brady to prevail, based on the disparity between Brady and Dillard’s performances. The difference between Dillard and Brady, if you delve into the crosstabs, is entirely explicable by how the more moderate Dillard performs in the Chicago suburbs (where he’s from, as opposed to the socially conservative, Downstate Brady). Dillard wins with over 50% in the collar counties, while Quinn and Brady are in a dead heat in the collar counties (while, of course, Quinn cleans up in vote-heavy Cook County).

RaceTracker Wiki: IL-Gov