Tag: OH-02

Steve Black, Democratic Candidate for Congress from OH-2 has posted a position paper on Irag:

A New Direction For Iraq

The situation in Iraq is grave. There are no easy answers to the numerous challenges presented by Iraq’s multi-sided civil war and the increasing threat of terrorism and regional insecurity the war has fostered. However, we must act now to contain the violence and move the region toward stability, as well as to ensure that our superb military is not stretched thin and that it used more effectively.

I believe it is imperative to reduce troop levels in Iraq and to begin their phased redeployment to strategic counter-terrorism missions under the guidance of our military leadership. Aggressive diplomacy is also long overdue to ensure that our allies and Iraq’s neighbors have a strong incentive to promote regional security; greater diplomatic efforts are also necessary to quell heightened tensions in the Israeli-Arab conflict. A renewed focus on Afghanistan is likewise critical – the gains we made there are rapidly being lost as the Taliban and al-Qaeda regroup. In addition, we must fulfill a moral duty, as well as protect our long-term security interests, by dealing with the huge refugee crisis arising from the Iraq War. Finally, we must ensure that the military and their families who have borne the burdens of Iraq receive the best of care and services – it is the right thing to do, and it is common sense to ensure that our military stays strong to continue the fight against terrorism and to make our nation secure.

The complete position paper on Iraq is here:
http://www.steveblac…

Murphy West
OH-02 Democrat
It’s time for Jean Schmidt to go.

Given that Republican Representative Jean Schmidt of Ohio has accomplished the remarkable feat of barely winning two successive House elections in a district that delivered nearly two thirds of its vote to George W. Bush in 2004, it should probably not come as a surprise that Schmidt is on the receiving end of her second primary challenge in as many years.  As you may recall, she beat back a 2006 primary challenge from former Congressman Bob McEwen by a 5% margin, despite only receiving a plurality of the vote.  That primary proved to be an ominous warning against her abilities to navigate the political environment that November.

This time, the man itching for a fight is former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich (yes, of that Heimlich family, it would seem).  Heimlich served for eight years on the Cincinnati City Council and one term on the Hamilton County commission until his defeat by Democrat and former Cincinnati mayoral candidate David Pepper last November.  It’s an okay resume, but his experience is decidedly more city-focused than the largely suburban/rural nature of the 2nd district–something that could conceivably hurt him in a head-to-head with Schmidt.

Still, Heimlich says he means business:

Heimlich said in an e-mail message to supporters that he has filed the necessary paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission and that his campaign treasury, which will be overseen by Bill Luchsinger, contains $120,000.

“Our party is yearning for a return to the principles established by Abraham Lincoln, the leadership and dignity demonstrated by Ronald Reagan and the common sense conservative values shared by all Republicans,” Heimlich said.

If that’s the case, Mr. Heimlich’s $120K puts him in a good position against Schmidt, whose lackadaisical fundraising pace only left her with $17,000 cash-on-hand (and $20K raised) after the first quarter of 2007.

Essentially, if Heimlich, or any other halfway stable Republican beats Schmidt in the primary, this district is most likely off the playing field for Democrats in 2008.  Any Republican who hasn’t spent their time advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into their congressional district, brushing off the Walter Reed scandal as “overblown”, or being scolded by the state’s Elections Commission for displaying a “reckless disregard for the truth” is going to have a much smoother ride than Schmidt in this solidly Republican district.  Our best case scenario would be for Heimlich and possibly one or two other credible Republicans to hammer Schmidt mercilessly for a year, leading her to another underwhelming plurality victory, and letting Vic Wulsin or the eventual Democratic nominee take over from there.

(Hat tip: Buckeye State Blog)

Race Tracker: OH-02

The plethora of opportunities for House Democratic challengers in Ohio next year is a topic that both CQ Politics and MyDD’s Jon Singer looked at recently. Between both sources, we can identify no fewer than seven potential offensive targets for Democrats this cycle. The following chart lists each possible targeted district by its PVI, the incumbent’s margin of victory in 2006, and the Kerry/Bush and Gore/Bush margins in 2004 and 2000, respectively:

CD	Incumbent	PVI	’06 Margin	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
OH-01	Chabot	R+0.5	4	49	51	46	51
OH-02	Schmidt	R+13.1	1	36	64	34	63
OH-03	Turner	R+2.9	17	46	54	45	52
OH-12	Tiberi	R+0.7	15	49	51	46	52
OH-14	LaTourette	R+2.2	18	47	53	44	52
OH-15	Pryce	R+1.1	<1	50	50	44	52
OH-16	Regula	R+3.6	17	46	54	42	53

With the exception of the 3rd, these districts have been trending more Democratic on the Presidential level since 2000. Despite shrewd gerrymandering by Ohio Republicans, with the right challengers, each of these seats could come into play.

• OH-01: The DCCC thinks it has their man to finish what John Cranley started in his challenge to Republican Steve Chabot in 2006. State Rep. and Minority Whip Steve Driehaus, “a Democrat with a history of winning over Republican voters”, has thrown his hat in the ring. On the one hand, Driehaus has a suburban political base that can help wear down Chabot in his strongest territories. On the other hand, Driehaus may lack the broader name recognition of Cranley, who was an at-large councilor in Cincinnati. On balance, though, Driehaus’ resume looks good, and he should prove to be another credible challenger.
• OH-02: No doubt about it; Jean Schmidt is a political time bomb set to go off every six months or so with another bizarre comment about bringing nuclear waste into her district or deriding the outrage over the Walter Reed scandal as “overblown” criticism. Jean Schmidt could very well be the worst politician of the decade, which is the only reason why Team Blue has a shot at winning this R+13 district. 2006 candidate Vic Wulsin is game for a rematch, and while it doesn’t seem to take much to incite Schmidt into inflicting another wound on herself, the Democratic nominee in this district will have to deal with running against the Presidential headwind of a solidly Republican district. A tough challenge, to be sure, but Schmidt is destined to underperform, especially if she gets another primary challenge.
• OH-03: This Dayton-based district was represented by Democrat Tony P. Hall from 1978-2002, but has since been occupied by Republican Mike Turner. Whatever hope Democrats had in sparking an upset last year unfortunately went down in flames after the Democratic nominee, Stephanie Studebaker, was arrested in a domestic dispute just three months before election day. Prosecutor Dick Chema was the last-minute replacement, and perhaps unsurprisingly fell short by roughly 17 points. Given that this district’s Republican lean is less than heavy, a well-organized challenger with a good profile could perhaps do to Turner what Democrat Jason Altmire did to “rising star” Republican Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania last year, who held a similarly Republican-leaning seat with a long history of voting for Congressional Democrats.
• OH-12: Republican Pat Tiberi convincingly repelled Swing State Project hero and near-octogenarian Bob Shamansky by a 15-point margin last November, but he did have to empty his $3 million war chest to do it. Tiberi shouldn’t be able to escape 2008 with a free pass, especially in a trending Democratic district like this one.
• OH-14: Democrats have an eager challenger to Republican Steve LaTourette: William O’Neill, a judge on the 11th District Court of Appeals in Ohio. O’Neill’s recent claim to fame was winning 41% of the vote for the Ohio Supreme Court on a $1 budget in 2006, in principled opposition to the mixing of campaign contributions and judicial service. However, O’Neill claims he won’t be nearly as stingy in his campaign against LaTourette. He intends to raise $1 million for the race, and will resign from the bench on June 15th and has already been in contact with the DCCC, according to comments attributed to him on the Buckeye State Blog. LaTourette, despite some family values hypocrisy and a district trending more Democratic on the Presidential level, has yet to face a top-shelf challenge this decade (no, Capri Cafaro doesn’t count). If Judge O’Neill can bring the noize, this might be another unexpected defense for Republicans next year.
• OH-15: After watching the disappointments of Lois Murphy and Diane Farrell in their four-year campaigns last cycle, I’ve become rather skeptical of the viability of most House rematches, barring special circumstances like scandal (e.g. Pombo/McNerney), and major strategic reorientation (e.g. Hodes/Bass, Boyda/Ryun). But Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy ran a strong challenge against Deborah Pryce last year, which is why I’m somewhat ambivalent about the brewing primary battle between her and fellow Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks. Pryce could be on unstable ground in 2008, but we’ll need to sort out our side of the fence first.
• OH-16: At age 82, Republican Ralph Regula is ripe for retirement. But even if this seat doesn’t open up, Democrats plan on making an aggressive challenge after the no-profile, no-money Democrat Thomas Shaw scored a surprising 41.6% against the 34-year incumbent. According to the Buckeye State Blog, State Senator John Boccieri, an officer in the Air Force Reserve and a veteran of four tours in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom, is strongly considering a bid for this seat. With a strong electoral track record and an excellent profile, Boccieri could prove to be a top-tier Democratic recruitment in the next cycle.

Seven districts, seven pressure points. Democrats probably won’t win all of them, or even many of them, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be wise to push on all of these targets hard to keep Congressional Republicans focused on putting out as many brushfires as possible.

Race Tracker: Ohio

Whether it’s advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into her congressional district (which inspired one of my all-time favorite editorial cartoons), sending out infantile, racist campaign mailers, or embarrassing herself on the floor of the House of Representatives, you’ve got to wonder if Jean Schmidt was born with some of the worst instincts in American politics today, or if she’s simply trying to test the upper limits of endurance that her ruby red district (R+13) is capable of handling.

Add disregard for America’s veterans to the list:

Schmidt, a Clermont County Republican, decided to take “several hours” to travel to the hospital in Washington, D.C., to see the situation “first hand.”

Her conclusion?

“I found the situation at Walter Reed to be overblown by both politicians and the media.”

Unbelievable.

(Hat-tip to TPM.)

Race Tracker: OH-02