Election 2009 Predictions Contest

Let’s get ready to rumble! Swing State Project is offering up its usual grand prize — delicious chocolate babka, courtesy of DavidNYC — for the swingnut who comes closest to picking the outcomes of the four big elections tomorrow. We’ll need you to give the percentages for each option in each of the following races; just post them in the comments:

NY-23 (Owens, Scozzafava, and Hoffman) (and yes, we know Scozzafava is officially out, but you still need to guess what percentage of people still vote for her!)

NJ-Gov (Corzine, Christie, and Daggett)

VA-Gov (Deeds and McDonnell)

Maine Question 1: (yes and no)

The person with the net closest answers wins. Of course, there’s lots more going on tomorrow, so feel free to offer your predictions on CA-10, Washington’s R-71, New York mayor, Boston mayor, Atlanta mayor, Charlotte mayor, or anything else your heart desires — you just won’t get extra credit for it. The contest closes at 7 pm Eastern/4 pm Pacific tomorrow, as Virginia’s polls close.

UPDATE (7pm, 11/3): The contest is now closed!

Community Trust

Every community, it goes without saying, is built on trust – and nowhere is this more true than online. In the digital realm, where you can’t see and seldom know the people you’re interacting with, being able to trust the folks on the other end of the line is of the utmost importance. We need to know, as best we are able, that people are who they say they are, that they mean what they say, and that they have the community’s best interests at heart.

Conversely, pretense, hidden agendas, and fabrications can do great damage to a place like this. Without a basic level of trust, an online community loses its credibility, its cohesiveness, and its influence. Both the administrators and the users of this site understand this well, and it’s why we all spend as much time as we do trying hard to preserve the trust we’ve built here.

Because of this fundamental need to maintain trust, in the political blogosphere, we hold campaigns to the highest of standards. Candidates come here seeking our support, our volunteer hours, and our money. These are serious things to ask for, and if you’re going to ask for them, we expect nothing but total scrupulousness.

When a campaign violates this trust, it’s an abuse of our entire community and cannot be allowed to stand. Because of the higher standard we hold campaign officials to, it is our policy to make such violations public when we discover them. And unfortunately, we have discovered another such transgression.

Andrew Eldredge-Martin is the campaign manager for Doug Pike, a Democrat running in Pennsylvania’s Sixth Congressional District. Drew, who has posted here as DrewEM, used sockpuppet accounts to post disparaging remarks about another Democrat running in the PA-06 primary. As it turns out, Drew also used a sockpuppet account at Daily Kos (where I am also an administrator) over the years to comment on two other races he managed, Bob Lord’s campaign against John Shadegg in AZ-03 in 2008, and Chris Carney’s campaign against Don Sherwood in PA-10 in 2006.

Needless to say, this kind of behavior is completely unacceptable. If campaign officials have something to say about the very race they’re working on, then it is mandatory that they speak out in their own voice. Pretending to be a disinterested observer, especially for the purposes of spreading negative information about opponents, is a complete violation of our trust. For the most senior official, a campaign manager, to do so is especially unacceptable.

I offered Drew the chance to apologize, and told him I would include any apology in this post. Not only did I never hear back, but it appears Drew used the opportunity to edit the bio and signature line of his sockpuppet account at Daily Kos, in a belated attempt at transparency. This information was not present in the sockpuppet account when we first discovered Drew’s malfeasance.

Because it is our policy to ban those who create sockpuppet accounts, we have done so here. But this should also be a lesson to anyone – and to any campaign – contemplating something similar. We will remain eternally vigilant in policing this site. We will not tolerate this kind of behavior. And we will do everything in our power to ensure that the trust which animates this site remains unbroken.

Introducing the 2010 RaceTracker Wiki

Last cycle, the Swing State Project kicked off what seemed at the time to be an ambitious project: creating a community-powered wiki to track the various comings and goings of incumbents and candidates for 2008’s congressional and gubernatorial elections. The wiki we produced turned out to be a great success thanks to the contributions by members of the SSP community and other blogs around the ‘net (especially Daily Kos). As the cycle progressed, it became clear that there was no greater resource for candidate tracking than the 2008 Race Tracker wiki.

After a few months of hard work, I’m very pleased to announce that the RaceTracker project is making a return for the 2010 cycle — but this time it’s bigger, badder, and better than ever. Thanks to the generosity and technical support of the Sunlight Foundation’s OpenCongress.org team, the RaceTracker project has a new home, a new look, and a big upgrade in terms of its functionality and user friendliness.

Over at OpenCongress, Conor has more:

RaceTracker is the next-generation version of the SwingStateProject’s 2008 RaceTracker and Congresspedia’s WikiTheVote project. We’re taking a cue from Joe Friday and keeping it a “just the facts” operation so its non-partisan nature is clear, regardless of the partisan motivations a participant might have in watching any particular race. Besides, we’re practicing transparency at home by requiring each piece of information to be referenced to an outside source, so there’s no need to take the word of “some guy on the Internet;” anyone can join the wiki community in checking the facts of each submission.

RaceTracker will be your one-stop source for information on all 435 House races, every Senate seat, and every gubernatorial contest in the country. We’ve already filled in the basics for each race (see IL-Sen Class III and CO-04 for good examples), but it’s up to you to keep everything up to date (and, judging by how well the RaceTracker performed last cycle, I know you guys are more than up to the challenge).

So please, go over to the new and improved RaceTracker wiki now, sign up for an account, and get busy adding what you know to our master database. After you’ve signed up for an account, click on the Edit With Form tab on each race page for the smoothest editing experience. More information on how to participate is available here. The new RaceTracker wiki also now has a permanent home on our sidebar under our “Resources” column.

Let us know what you think!

VA-Gov Predictions Contest: A Winner Is You!

First off, as always, thanks to everyone who participated in the Swing State Project’s VA-Gov Dem primary predictions contest. Fifty-seven folks submitted guesses, and what’s particularly awesome is that the skunkworks down at SSP Labs shows we have a flat-out tie for first place! Congratulations to RedefiningForm and stevenaxelrod, who both had winning scores of just four points – you each get half a loaf! Just kidding… send me an email and a super-mega-delicious Green’s babka will be on its way to each of you shortly.

The actual final results were Deeds 50, McAuliffe 26, Moran 24. For the record, here were the winning guesses, along with the average for all of SSP:

RedefiningForm:

Deeds: 48

McAuliffe: 26

Moran: 26

stevenaxelrod:

Deeds: 48

McAuliffe: 27

Moran: 25

SSP Median

Deeds: 41.1

McAuliffe: 31.7

Moran: 26.7

If you want to see exactly how you did, please click here. If you aren’t going to be the recipient of tasty babka, please try again next time (or treat yourself!). Thanks again to all, and congrats once more to the winners!

Keeping SSP SSP

A few days ago, I wrote a post about the Swing State Project’s mission. I was heartened by the comments, which were very supportive. Nonetheless, certain users have persisted in derailing discussions on this site in exactly the ways I made clear were unacceptable.

To preserve the way virtually all of us want the site to function, we are temporarily suspending the posting privileges of several users who were the worst abusers in the recent NY-Sen-B and UT-Gov posts. If you find yourself unable to comment or post diaries on the site, you are one of the affected users.

If you participated in these derailments but can still post, that does not mean you have our approval. We could have suspended far more people than we chose to. All participants should consider themselves on notice and take care to avoid abusing the site in the future.

If your privileges were suspended, you can request reinstatement after Memorial Day by sending me an email. Reinstatement will not be automatic, and contrition is advised. Note: We will remain exceptionally vigilant should anyone attempt to create a sock-puppet account. Doing so will be grounds for permanent banning.

It gives me no pleasure to do this. We’ve never had to do anything like this before, and I hope we never do again. And to be clear, the vast majority of site users have remained true to the spirit of the site. For this we are very grateful. Yet often the actions of a few can disrupt things for the many, and so we feel compelled to take action. Thank you all for your understanding.

Blogads Reader Survey Data (Partly) Available

I know it’s been a while, but some of the data from the Blogads reader survey is now available. Since there seems to be a good deal of interest in SSP demographics of late, we wanted to share these numbers with you. So far only a few questions are up, but we’ll post a note when more information (like what percentage of you watch the Simpsons) becomes available. Have fun!

Please Help Put SoapBlox on Sure Footing

Goal ThermometerLast Tuesday night, before I went to bed, I noticed that I couldn’t access the Swing State Project. I figured it was a temporary hiccup that would clear itself up before long. On Wednesday morning, though, as I’m sure every SSP reader noticed, the site was still inaccessible.

A post at SoapBlox, whose software powers this site and many others, sent my heart through my chest: Hackers had gained access to the servers and had apparently wiped out untold reams of data. Two years of SSP posts, diaries, comments, jokes – all gone. It was worse than my worst nightmare, because I never imagined anything like this.

Fortunately – extremely fortunately – after a few hours of frantic behind-the-scenes scrambling, sites started coming back online, including SSP. We can’t say for sure just yet, but mercifully, our archives look to be intact. Still, it was a truly terrible morning.

And it came about because we’d been asking too much of one man, Paul Preston, for whom SoapBlox was and is a labor of love that, of necessity, has to come after his day job. However, BlogPAC has stepped up and put forth a detailed plan for ensuring SoapBlox’s future security and stability.

Of course, this sort of thing takes money. BlogPAC’s plan will cost $17,400 to implement. While I’d always prefer to ask you to donate to Democratic candidates for office, this too is a worthy cause.  Over 100 progressive blogs rely on SoapBlox, which offers critical community-building features found on no other blogging platform. In particular, only SoapBlox provides, out-of-the-box, the user diaries which separate ordinary blogs from true communities.

I love what we’ve built here at SSP and I couldn’t be prouder. As I’ve often said, the biggest and best part of our success comes from having a dedicated and enthusiastic group of readers, commenters and diarists. While Swing State could surely move to another software platform if we absolutely had to, I know things would just not be the same.

It goes without saying things are tough economically, so I know this is not an ideal time for an ask. But if you can spare a few bucks to put SoapBlox back on surer footing, we’d be exceptionally grateful. Thank you.

UPDATE: Non-U.S. readers can donate via PayPal (click on the button below). Paul informs us that so far $50 has come through via PayPal, which means we are still about $350 short of our goal. If you’d like to see a list of some of the concrete changes already taking place at SoapBlox, check out this post.


The Great Swing State Project Predictions Contest: 2008 Results!

At long last, we’ve finally crunched the numbers on the 2008 edition of the Great Swing State Project Predictions Contest. Without further ado (and remember, the lower the score, the better), the winners are:






















Place User Score
1 ahfdemocrat 59
T-2 Englishlefty 60
T-2 Tyler Oakley 60

What a photo finish – the next-closest score was 61! Congratulations to all our winners, and our deepest thanks to everyone who participated. We had over 110 entrants – double the number from two years ago.

If you’re a winner, please email me so that I can send you some delicious chocolate babka, as promised (and check out Wikipedia to learn more about this wondrous treat, including the famous Seinfeld episode). Now, since I’ve been an utter bum and never managed to send prizes to the 2006 winners, all the previous victors (Democraticavenger, tyler, DCal and Craig) can also email me to collect. And if this year’s runner up Tyler Oakley is the same person as “tyler” from two years ago, then that’ll mean a double helping of babka!

If you’re curious to see how you fared, I’ve uploaded a complete spreadsheet here. Note that I didn’t compute the tiebreak as it wasn’t necessary, but you can find those guesses on the third tab. (Also, a few users failed to offer predictions for all fourteen races or entered their results too late and thus aren’t on this spreadsheet – sorry!) And here’s how the community predicted things as a whole:













































































Race SSP Avg. Actual
WA-Gov 4 6
AK-Sen 10 1
MS-Sen-B -5 -10
CA-46 -5 -10
FL-25 1 -6
LA-01 -13 -31
NE-02 -1 -4
NH-01 6 6
NM-02 4 12
NY-13 18 28
OH-02 -3 -7
PA-11 -2 3
TX-22 -6 -7
WY-AL -1 -10

I’ll leave it to you guys to grouse over where we missed things and why. In any event, thanks once again to everyone who submitted predictions, and we look forward to doing this again in two years’ time!

2008 Presidential Results by Congressional District Permalink

We’re pleased to announce that we’ve created a perma-post for the 2008 presidential results by congressional district. (We’ve included the 2004 and 2000 results as well.) You can use this link, and you’ll also find a permalink in the “Resources” box on the right-hand sidebar of the site.

As our crowdsourcing project continues, we’ll keep adding new numbers. In fact, you should expect another round of numbers this week.


Some other site news stuff: Thank you to everyone who has taken the Blogads reader survey so far! We’ve gathered about 75 responses so far, which is terrific. We’d love to hit at least 100. This may not be a scientific study, but nonetheless, everyone on this site knows the value of a big N! So please take the survey today. Once it’s complete, I promise that we’ll share some of the results.