Tag: NH-01

NH-Sen, NH-01, NH-02: New Granite State Poll Offers Mixed Results

The newest Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center (4/25-30, likely voters) is out.  Let’s take a look at the numbers.

The Senate race (February in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 52 (54)

John Sununu (R-inc): 40 (37)

Undecided: 7 (7)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

NH-01:

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 39

Jeb Bradley (R): 45

Undecided: 13

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 43

John Stephen (R): 35

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±6%)

NH-02:

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 51

Bob Clegg (R): 24

Undecided: 23

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 52

Jennifer Horn (R): 25

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±6%)

The margin of error may be quite high, and while the GSP has not always had the greatest track record, the results do confirm that Shea-Porter is in a much tougher spot than Hodes is.

Sunday Night Miscellany

Well, it’s still Sunday in mighty Mountain Time…

  • IN-07: According to the Indianapolis Star, Democratic Rep. Julia Carson has committed herself to run for a sixth term in the House.  I can’t say that I’m thrilled with this development.  Carson, who has had the misfortune of dealing with a series of serious health issues during her tenure, has performed weakly in her last two campaigns against underfunded and low-profile challengers, despite occupying a district with a PVI of D+8.7.  While Kerry won Indiana’s 7th by 16 points in 2004, Carson only won by a margin of 10.  And while Democratic performance in Indiana’s eight other congressional districts surged between 2004 and 2006, Carson’s margin of victory slid to a mere 8 points, despite outspending her opponent by a lopsided margin and receiving DCCC assistance.  This seat shouldn’t be in play, but as long as Carson is on the ballot, it will present a rare opportunity for House Republicans.  (H/T: Blue Indiana)

  • IL-18: Dick Versace for Congress?  Will he play in Peoria?

  • NH-01: Jeb Bradley offers his 100% support for the Iraq War.

  • WA-08: Make Dave Reichert pay the price for his enduring support of President Bush.  Toss in some coin to the Burn Bush effort via the Blue Majority page.

  • Consultants take note!  People-powered guru DavidNYC offers his step-by-step guide on how to run (and win) a congressional campaign in 2008.