KY-Sen: Mitch Busts Out the Photocopier, SSP Moves Race to “Likely Republican”

Voter Consumer Research for Mitch McConnell (6/15-17, likely voters, 5/21-22 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 39 (39)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50 (50)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This one comes a day after SurveyUSA released a poll showing Lunsford trailing McConnell by four points. McConnell’s camp pulled the exact same move in May after Rasmussen released a survey showing Lunsford beating McConnell by five.

However, one thing is clear: Mitch McConnell won’t be getting a free ride this year. Even McConnell’s own internals indicate that this race is closer than any election he’s faced since 1990. Lunsford, while hardly a darling of progressive Democrats, will be able to bring his own ample financial resources to the race so that McConnell will be pinned down at home. McConnell will have to navigate his re-election bid and his role as a steadfast champion of Bush’s unpopular policies in the Senate carefully.

With the polls starting to smile on Lunsford, SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican“. McConnell is a famously tenacious campaigner and is still heavily favored to win, but an upset is not outside the realm of possibility.

AL-02: Talk About Overlooked

From the Hill:

Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) has been on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) Red to Blue list for months, but it appears few people knew that.

The DCCC neglected to announce the addition of Bright to the list, but his name was among the 25 candidates already part of the program when the committee announced its new slate of Red to Blue candidates Wednesday.

Turns out that Bright’s been part of the Red to Blue program since February. Who knew?

For reference, I’ve included the full Red to Blue list below the fold.

Red to Blue:

AK-AL: Ethan Berkowitz

AL-02: Bobby Bright

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick

AZ-03: Bob Lord

CA-04: Charlie Brown

CO-04: Betsy Markey

CT-04: Jim Himes

FL-13: Christine Jennings

FL-21: Raul Martinez

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas

FL-25: Joe Garcia

ID-01: Walt Minnick

IL-10: Dan Seals

IL-11: Debbie Halvorson

LA-04: Paul Carmouche

MD-01: Frank Kratovil

MI-07: Mark Schauer

MI-09: Gary Peters

MN-03: Ashwin Madia

MO-06: Kay Barnes

NC-08: Larry Kissell

NJ-03: John Adler

NJ-07: Linda Stender

NM-01: Martin Heinrich

NM-02: Harry Teague

NV-03: Dina Titus

NY-13: Mike McMahon

NY-25: Dan Maffei

NY-29: Eric Massa

OH-01: Steve Driehaus

OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy

OH-16: John Boccieri

VA-02: Glenn Nye

VA-11: Gerry Connolly

WA-08: Darcy Burner

WV-02: Anne Barth

WY-AL: Gary Trauner

Emerging Races:

AL-03: Josh Segall

CA-50: Nick Leibham

FL-09: John Dicks

FL-18: Annette Taddeo

IL-06: Jill Morgenthaler

IL-18: Colleen Callahan

IN-03: Mike Montagano

KY-02: David Boswell

MN-02: Steve Sarvi

MN-06: El Tinklenberg

NC-10: Dan Johnson

NJ-05: Dennis Shulman

NV-02: Jill Derby

OH-02: Vic Wulsin

PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper

PA-06: Bob Roggio

PA-15: Sam Bennett

TX-07: Michael Skelly

VA-05: Tom Perriello

VA-10: Judy Feder

KS-02: Boyda Leads GOP Challengers

Anzalone Liszt for Nancy Boyda (5/12-15, likely voters):

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 54

Jim Ryun (R): 37

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 57

Lynn Jenkins (R): 27

(n=403)

Those are some very impressive numbers for Boyda, whom many have considered in serious jeopardy this year as she begins her first re-election campaign.   But her re-elects (54-35) and her job approval rating (68-21) are very strong. Particularly impressive is her performance against ex-Rep. Ryun, who must have some significant name recognition in the district.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-38 in Kansas’ 2nd CD. In 2004, Bush smoked Kerry by 59-39 in this district.

Special thanks to the good folks over at Boyda Bloc for sharing these numbers.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

AK-AL: Pumpkinseeds

The Wall Street Journal’s Washington Wire has an excellent piece up about a leaked unofficial document entitled “The 2111: An Intern’s Survival Guide” that was authored by interns of scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Don Young in 2007. The whole thing is worth a read if only to get a sense of what it’s like to work with the cantankerous Young and his wife.

One juicy detail is the so-called “A Team” — a group of lobbyists that interns are instructed to give unrestricted access to anyone in the office they like:

The A Team: Rick Alcalde, Colin Chapman, Randy DeLay, Billy Lee Evans, Jack Ferguson, Mike Henry, Duncan Smith, C.J. Zane, and Jay Dickey. These people can talk to whomever they want, normally Mike or Sara. Tell them who it is and transfer over unless they say otherwise. I recommend looking up who they are.

A good recommendation — one that the WSJ followed up on:

Some, like Alcalde, are tied to an ongoing investigation into a $10 million earmark Young secured for Coconut Road in Florida. Alcalde, a transportation lobbyist, worked for a real estate developer who sought the earmark and was a major financial contributor to Young’s campaign. DeLay is the Houston-based lobbyist brother of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, Ferguson is a former chief of staff to Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, who is also under federal investigation. Evans and Dickey are former congressmen, and Henry, Smith, Zane, and Chapman are former Young staffers.

When not bending over backwards for Young’s lobbyist pals, the congressman’s interns work hard to accommodate their boss’ personality quirks:

  • When he calls put him straight through. If whoever he wants is not her [sic] give it to Mike, if Mike is not here: Sara. You will not get this right, there is no way to. He does not introduce himself, should you realize who he is you will find another way to get it wrong. Rise above it.

  • Does not like facial piercings.

  • Keep your hands out of your pockets.

  • Expects you to open doors for him (particularly tricky when he does not specify where he is going, make a guess)

  • And Mrs. Young:

  • Wants Pumpkin Seeds when she says sunflower seeds
  • Don’t stand in her way-don’t stand anywhere I would suggest. Sit down or hide in the broom cupboard.
  • Does not tolerate noise from the computers.
  • Does not like Cologne
  • Eat what she tells you to eat.
  • If you sneeze it’s always allergies or pressure changes; stick strong to your case.
  • Wild.

    NM-SEN: Private GOP Poll Has Udall +31

    I hate Robert Novak, but he has useful connections to the GOP. And in this week’s email update, New Mexico Republicans are nothing by grim over the idea of trying to retain Pete Domenici’s seat, especially with a poll like the one he sites.

    Udall is a well-known and well-liked politician who taps perfectly into the environmentalist zeitgeist of the state. His liberal base is large and energetic while Pearce’s conservative base is much smaller. Bush hangs like a rain cloud over the GOP here, and McCain might not bring any coattails.

    It’s believable then when one New Mexico Republican tells us of a poll showing Udall up by 31 points.

    I think we can put this one to bed.

    [UPDATE]

    As a bonus, Novak also covered the NM-01 race.

    Considering only the candidates, White has the edge, but the political landscape seriously favors Heinrich. Bush’s name and the GOP brand are dirt in New Mexico. Tom Udall is likely to dominate the Senate race. In Albuquerque at least, Obama enthusiasm could drive up Democratic turnout, while luke- warmness about McCain could suppress GOP turnout. Domenici won’t be able to help White, while Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) could be on hand to boost all of the Democratic candidates.

    Because we expect a strong Democratic tide, White’s strengths look likely to be wiped out by a Democratic surge. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

    Josh Zeitz (NJ-4): 5th Graders See Crisis at Pump

    Below is a blog post from the Josh Zeitz for Congress campaign. Josh is a Democrat challenging Republican incumbent (and anti-choice caucus chair) Chris Smith in NJ-4.

    Today, I paid $3.88 per gallon to fill up my car. Accustomed as I am to living on a history teacher’s salary, I know how much these high gas prices hurt, and how they impact everything else we buy.

    Recently, I had the privilege of speaking with 5th grade students at the Leadership Academy Charter School in Trenton about the issues they feel are important in this year’s election. Nearly every student talked about how hard it was for their parents to afford the rising cost of gas. They also knew that when the price of gas goes up, so does the cost of food, clothing, and other basic necessities. The problem is so obvious that even fifth graders realize we’re in a crisis, yet our leaders in Washington have let this problem fester so long that it’s squeezing New Jersey families to the breaking point.

    More after the jump.

     

    Simply put, New Jersey families can no longer afford to get by in George Bush’s economy. The Republicans in Washington are under the influence of big oil, which is raking in huge profits thanks to those same high gas prices. Unfortunately, my opponent, Chris Smith, has been part of the problem. He has consistently voted for huge subsidies for energy corporations while also voting against tougher laws against price gouging at the pump. We need a change in Congress. We need to elect people who actually put the interests of Central Jersey’s families ahead of corporate profits.

    Our government needs to help families deal with these high gas prices. We need to take direct action immediately.

    We need to start by strengthening laws against price gouging. We should establish criminal penalties for CEOs who artificially inflate prices. Congress should also investigate price fixing by rich oil cartels like OPEC.

    Second, we need to make new, fuel-efficient hybrid cars affordable for all American families. Currently, the tax credit for buying hybrids is too small, and there is a limit on the number of families who can receive it. We need to increase these tax breaks so that all families can afford a fuel-efficient vehicle for the cost of their current car payments. How do we pay for it? By eliminating the billions we give to oil companies that are already making record profits.

    We simply can’t wait any longer. When the price of a gallon of gas goes up by a dollar, as it has in only the past year or so, it means that Americans are paying an extra $142 billion each year to fill up their tanks. See this New York Times article for details.

    This is a serious problem that, as Trenton’s fifth graders rightly noted, hurts families – not only at the gas station, but at the supermarket and beyond. It’s also a national security problem. Americans have spent about $600 billion over the past twelve months on gasoline, and almost $400 billion of that has gone to foreign oil producers.

    Sixteen gallons of gas at $4 per gallon. More than $60 to fill up a tank. By increasing the efficiency of our cars, we can help NJ families achieve the economic security they enjoyed before George Bush became president. In the long run, by developing new, innovative technologies we can create a green economy that provides high-paying jobs here in Central Jersey, while alleviating our pain at the pump. Together, we can create a more affordable and secure future.

    I’m going to stick around for comments. If you are interested in volunteering for the campaign, please contact me at ian_at_joshzeitz_com. I am a volunteer myself, and serve as Josh’s Netroots Outreach Coordinator.

    IN-07 — Things just got even easier

    Jon Elrod dropped out of the race for Congress here in the 7th district today.  Basically, he said it was too hard, that he wasn’t going to win, the voters clearly indicated they wanted Andre Carson, blah, blah, blah.  He’s really coming off like a spoiled four-year-old who didn’t get his way.  

    So, he’s jumping back into his state legislative race/running for re-election to the General Assembly.  I think he’s going to have a hard time getting re-elected, in what will be a crucial state-level race here.  He’s got to explain why he started running for Congress less than a year into his first legislative term (and he was running for Congress BEFORE everyone knew Julia Carson was terminally ill).  Also, we have what seems like a really good candidate on our side, Mary Ann Sullivan, who has been actively campaigning in the district for some time.

    The Republicans will hold a caucus soon to select their new Congressional candidate.  There are some decent sort-of second-tier people they could select, but no one that I think can give Andre any real trouble.

    ME-Sen: Collins’ Lead Shrinks to Seven

    (This topic deserves more analysis– as far as I’m concerned, it’s the biggest news of the day . . . and of the week, so far! – promoted by The Caped Composer)

    Just as we were starting to give up on the Pine Tree State, a new Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Republican Susan Collins' lead shrinking (5/14 in parens):

    Tom Allen (D): 42 (42) 
    Susan Collins (R, inc): 49 (52)
    (MoE: ±4%)

    The poll found that Collins' favorability, while still high, has fallen from since last month, and her unfavorables have risen slightly.  Allen's numbers, by contrast, have remained static.  The most surprising finding here is the fact that Collins has a double-digit lead among men, but leads by only two points among women.  Discuss.

    This race may still be an uphill battle, but, let's just say it's akin to climbing Cadillac, more than Katahdin.

    IN-07: Andre Carson Is Sitting Pretty

    This just gets easier and easier every day.

    Indiana Republican State Rep. Jon Elrod has decided to forego a rematch with Democratic Rep. Andre Carson this November.

    CQ Politics has therefore decided to change the rating of IN-07 to “Democrat favored” from the more competitive “Leans Democrat” rating it previously had.

    As a parting shot to the disappointed GOP members, Elrod offered this reason for his decision:

    “I am resolute that the greater good is in a hard-fought return to the statehouse, rather than a longshot run for Congress,” Elrod said in a statement.

    What that means is, he’d rather return to the Indiana Legislature where he could actually get some legislation passed, instead of sitting in a perpetual minority up in Congress.

    To quote that Metallica song: Sad, But True

    NY-21: Darius Shahinfar live blogging tonight at The Albany Project

    Robert Harding will be hosting Darius Shahinfar, Democratic candidate for Congress in the open NY-21 seat, tonight at 6:00PM eastern time for a live blogging session at The Albany Project.

    Darius Shahinfar

    Be sure and get there early so that…

    Picture 035

    … you don’t have to stand in the back of the room.

    Robert gives a little teaser from Darius’ bio:


    Here is a little bit about Darius to get you started:

    In 2004, Darius took a leave of absence from Albany County and volunteered on John Kerry’s Presidential Campaign – where he served as the Regional Coordinator at the Coordinated Campaign’s Northern Virginia office. Returning home, Darius became a 7th Ward Democratic Committeeman for the Albany County Democratic Committee and joined the local grassroots organization Democracy for the Hudson-Mohawk Region.

    But Darius’ most rewarding experience has been working for Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand and the people of the neighboring 20th Congressional District. Darius worked with her from the start of her campaign and, after her hard fought victory, joined her office as Capital District Representative. He administered Rep. Gillibrand’s Saratoga Springs office, tending to constituent concerns and issues in and around the region. Here he fought for veterans to get the benefits that they earned, for the disabled who were facing losing their homes and for seniors who are making choices between heating their homes and filling their prescriptions. Darius also worked on the Congresswoman’s Economic Development Projects, 21st-century job creation, and helped create policy through the creation of green-collar jobs in Upstate New York.

    Which gives me a great excuse for a gratuitous Kirsten Gillibrand shot:

    DariusKirsten

    NY-21 is a crowded democratic primary. 20 year Congressman Mike McNulty is retiring. The seat is a fairly safe democratic seat so this is a great opportunity to emphasize the better part of More and Better Democrats!

    There are several decent to good democrats in this race but there is no doubt in my mind that Darius Shahinfar is the best candidate for the district and for America.

    See ya’ll at 6!