Kentucky, Pennsylvania & Arkansas Primary Results Thread

9:43pm: We’re just chewin’ ’em up and spitting ’em out, huh? Let’s move this conversation over here.

9:34pm: So our model is still liking Conway, to the tune of 7,700 votes. Serious squeaker, though.

9:27pm: I’m gonna guess Paul Kanjorski will hang on. With 28% in, he has 53% of the vote, while the once-touted Corey O’Brien is barely ahead of no-name Brian Kelly, 25-22. Numbers look rather like the IL-03 primary against Dan Lipinski in 2008.

9:25pm: I’m loving it – Keith Rothfus is absolutely hammering GOP establishment fave Mary Beth Buchanan, 64-36 with 25% reporting in PA-04.

9:23pm: 19% reporting in PA now, and Specter leads Sestak by 52-48.

9:20pm: With 25 precincts in, Mark Critz leads Burns by 59-39. These are some Dem-friendly precincts though, but Critz is holding down decent margins here based on our model.

9:17pm: With 3068 precincts in, Conway leads by only 45-42 (or just over 12K votes), but jeffmd is currently projecting Conway to win by 8,000.

9:15pm: Wow, look at Dem Rep. Tim Holden. With 18 precincts in, the guy’s getting spanked by 59-41.

9:13pm: 17 precincts are now in for PA-12, and Critz leads Burns by 59-38. This is fairly Dem-friendly turf, though.

9:10pm: Our latest projection has Conway ultimately winning by something around 4,000 votes.

9:09pm: 2846 precincts are now in, and Conway is now back up over 20,000.

9:05pm: With 2805 precincts in, Conway’s lead has dipped just below 20,000 votes. Our projection is still pointing to a 44-44 result.

9:03pm: Specter’s up by 58-42 with just 7% in.

9:00pm: 2751 precincts are reporting in Kentucky (leaving 824 on the table), and Conway’s up by 46-41, or just over 20,000 votes.

8:59pm: Heh — with just 7 precincts reporting in Arkansas, DC Morrison has 18%, and Halter leads Lincoln by 42-40.

8:54pm: Hoo boy — the abacus crew at SSP World HQ tells me that the latest projection shows a 44-44 race in Kentucky, with Conway winning a squeaker by 3,000 votes. However, we admit that our methods are crude.

8:50pm: Back in Kentucky, with 2654 precincts in (out of 3575), Conway still leads by 47-41 — or just under 22,000 votes.

8:47pm: You can also find the PA-12 special election results buried far down this page. They have Critz up by 59-41 in the single precinct reporting.

8:45pm: For PA-12 special election results, keep this link handy. Lots of other links are showing the primary nums.

8:43pm: We’re now up to 2377 precincts in Kentucky, and Conway leads Mongiardo by 47-41 (or about 23,000 votes).

8:41pm: KY-Sen turnout (so far): 328K voters in Dem primary, 212K in the GOP primary.

8:40pm: 2281, and it’s tightened to 47-40.

8:36pm: We’ve got 2237 precincts outta the oven in KY, and Conway still leads by 48-40. (Just 36 uncounted Jeffco counties, for those keeping score, though Conway is doing well enough in some of the smaller counties, too.)

8:32pm: The polls have just closed in Arkansas.

8:30pm: With 4 precincts reporting in PA, Sestak leads Specter by 131 votes to 114.

8:28pm: We’ve got two competing spreadsheets running by the eggheads at SSP Labs. One is projecting a 45-43 Conway win — the other a 46-42 Conway win.

8:25pm: 2009 precincts are now in, and Conway’s still sitting at 48-40. That includes almost all of Fayette County now, where Conway won by 52-38.

8:23pm: The boys down at SSP Labs tell me that Conway is, very crudely, projected to win by 45-43 right now. Variations in turnout could muck that one up, though.

8:21pm: 1845 precincts in — over half of the vote now — and Conway leads Mongiardo by 48-40. There’s only 60 precincts left in Jeffco to count, while Fayette still has 91 precincts taking a ganja break.

8:18pm: Hmmm — some voters were accidentally given two ballots in PA-12. Well, let’s hope that this one doesn’t come down to 178 votes!

8:15pm: 1703 precincts are now in, and Conway’s up by 48-39.

8:11pm: For whatever it’s worth, our crude back-of-the-envelope analysis has switched from predicting a Mongiardo win to a Conway victory. Conway’s also posting a narrow lead in Daviess County, home of Owensboro.

8:09pm: 1614 precincts are in, and Conway is holding onto his 49-39 lead over Mongiardo.

Polls have just closed in Pennsylvania. We’re still tracking the results in KY-Sen (D) and will bring you PA results as soon as they roll in. Arkansas (8:30pm ET) and Oregon (11pm ET) close later.


RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

190 thoughts on “Kentucky, Pennsylvania & Arkansas Primary Results Thread”

  1. I will give Conway some money if he pulls it out, and I don’t donate money very often, being a student and all.

  2. home of Owensboro, Kentucky’s third city and the barbecue mutton capital of the world.  Mmmmm…

    He’s also pulling good margins in the counties surrouding Louisville and Lexington.  I think he’s going to get it – knock on wood.

  3. Go Flyers!!!! (sorry Pens fans)

    Both Specter and Sestak better hope Philly area sports fans hit up the polls before making some wings and watching the 7pm game (and in the rain, not likely)…

  4. that being said, even I, as a pessimist, am impressed with how Conway’s doing. he may pull this one out yet. Too early to call anything though.

  5.  Is that he is winning rural counties in Central Kentucky. Although there are Mongirado counties that need to report more, they might not be enough.

    Also, most of the Central Kentucky counties have reported.  

  6. The final result seems pretty similar to what all the polls were showing.

    Also Conway is doing much better than I expected. Still about 50% of the state needs to poor in. What is the path to victory for Mongiardo?

  7. To watch: Cambria County, particularly in the Johnstown area, and in Westmoreland county, particular in the New Kensington area.

    Critz needs these.  

  8. Conway is ahead in Bowling Green (Warren) and Owensboro (Daviess).  

    Warren: with 47/64 reporting, Conway leads 51-38

    Daviess: With 35/85 reporting, Conway leads 44-43

    How will Paducah (McCracken) (0/57) go?  

  9. Many have been saying that Specter’s key to victory is in Philadelphia. However what about other major cities like Pittsburgh? Are they also major Spectar/Rendell Machine cities or is it only Philly?

  10. I never would have guessed those 2nd and 3rd tier candidates would take up 10-11% of the vote.

  11. cushion that might draw down some but i don’t think mongiardo can close it the whole way

  12. Critz up 59-41.

    however it’s in Greene county, which as jeffmd’s great map shows, is quite Democratic.

  13. Conway’s done very well in a swath from southern Ohio hugging the river to Louisville and south through central KY to the Tennessee border. Was he expected to do this well in many of these rural counties?

  14. Watching CNN everyone is acting as if Paul is a shoo-in in the general.  But right now he’s actually running 3rd behind both Democrats.  Now, Democratic primary voters often vote Republican in the general.  But, when PPP is showing that a plurality of the Grayson voters will vote Democratic in fall, I think it’s entirely possible that the Democrat (hopefully Conway) could actually win big come November.  Now what would that do to all the talking heads?  :-)

  15. both Conway and Mongiardo received more votes than Rand Paul.  i have been out of the loop for awhile and thought the Kentucky race was all about the GOP primary.  shows what i know

  16. the AP link seems to be slightly faster than the PA SOS link. (PA-12 special is at the bottom of the AP page, between the PA-19 primary and PA-Sen D primary.)

  17. based on what I can extrapolate from the early Philly results are that Specter will win the Philly burbs narrowly. That means that Sestak needs monster margins from W. PA.

    This is going to be a late night IMO.  

  18. He is still leading by 22,000 vote and 73% of the vote is in. For Mongirado to win, he needs to get the rest of the vote by about 20 points (at the least) and with at least a few precincts still in Jefferson County, I do not see that happening.

    Also, results from Mongirado are starting to come.  

  19. who’s ky state rep. A. Smith and why is he having such a tight primary (losing by 29 votes)

  20. against Chris Matthews for his blatant anti-Clinton bias, but these anti-Specter rants are truly juvenile. I know his childhood dream is to be a senator, but don’t whine constantly about how the guy who holds the seat you want.

    Sorry I just had to put this out there.

  21. Looks like Halter is up by 4%

    And Jim Holt (!) is in a tight third against Baker

    One thing puzzles me though, in terms of turnout, it looks like dems are crushing the repubs in the AR primary, I thought that the GOP primary was hotly contested?  What happen?

  22. Conway’s up 46-41, but nearly 80% of precincts are reporting. It’s a race against the clock for Danny M.

  23. It’s really early, but it looks like Wagner is hurting Onorato. Wagner is pulling in 35% in Allegheny County, where Onorato was a county supervisor. Williams is dominating in his base in Philly. Williams has the early lead. (And my boy, Hoeffel, is going to struggle to get in the teens)

  24. Sestak actually winning Allegheny with a quarter of the vote in 52-48; Specter looks like he’ll get a 2-1 majority out of Philly (maybe 60,000 votes doing some simple extrapolation).

    Sestak winning Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre) 54-45 with half in, this has to be good result for him.

  25. His deficit with Conway has narrowed significantly. I know nothing about Kentucky, so what does Mongiardo need to do take back a win?

    And if there is a runoff how nasty could it get? I remember Conway an Mongiardo going at it pretty harshly earlier this year, but I’m afraid of what an extended recount could do.

  26. MSNBC and the Associated Press called it for him. Did anyone really think Luksik would have won in the first place?

  27. he’s doing pretty well outside of the Philly area. but of course it’s early and we still need to see.

  28. Diana Irey just got me some results. Five precincts reporting from a 3-to-1 Democrat area in the city of Washington, Critz 803 (55%), Burns 667 (45%). And this indicates . . .? “He’s gonna win,” Irey says – “he” meaning Burns, of course.

    This is from a conservative blog though.  

  29. on HCR and Cap and Trade? Any sense of why the Democratic voters in his district would be mad at him?

  30. Just flipped HARD for Sestak as 15% of precincts came in. He’s spanking Specter all over the state so far except Philly. If DelCo goes Sestak, then the rest of the Philly burbs probably aren’t far off…

  31. It was only a matter of time before his parts of the state caught up with Philly’s fast reporting.

    I was never really sure who I supported in the PA-Sen race (although Sestak’s comments about supporting Specter were kind of douchey IMO) but it doesn’t matter since I don’t live there. Either way, for better or for worse, I see good signs for Sestak.

  32. 30 of 44 precincts in.

    CRitz 56%

    Burns 40%

    FWIW Mutha won this county 53-47 in 2008.

  33. He’s breathlessly reassuring viewers on Hannity that PA-12 will come down the wire.

  34. If Mongiardo loses by a few thousand votes as the SSP model is projecting he will concede but what if the separation is only in the hundreds?

    Momentum-wise it seems that Sestak will win just as narrowly as Conway is. Anyone know the votes from Pittsburgh? Is Spectar crushing Sestak there like in Philadelphia?  

  35. 61-39 with 24% in. He seems to be headed for a Shuler/Kissell victory.

    with 11% in, Trivedi leads in PA-06 63-37.

  36. from Henderson County, KY?  It’s very blue by KY standards IIRC.  Maybe Conway will carry it…

  37. Fayette County

    55% in

    Critz 61%

    Burns 38%

    Critz is up in every county I could find results for. (The county websites are well ahead of the AP)

  38. To call Kentucky for Conway. I do not see Mongirado making up a 7,000 vote deficit here. He has to win the rest of the vote by about 30 points and with Louisville not quite done yet, this will be too hard to do in my opinion.  

  39. Philly fans sitting home and watching the game.  Take Philadelphia off the table, and he wins in a landslide.

  40. And saw Sestak signs and volunteers everywhere, and hardly anything for Specter. And my Philly family (those of ’em who are Dems) are all voting for Sestak. Maybe the PA machine is a bit overrated in the primary?

  41. If there was like an audible ding when the results were updated, that would so awesome.  I guess I’ll just have to continue looking at it every few min.

  42. has been at 22K votes for quite sometime, so I think he’s holding his own as some of the rural areas have come in.

  43. mongiardo is running up huge percentages in the eastern counties BUT the raw vote numbers of those counties are tiny(some of those counties barely have 500 raw votes);and in central KY conway is winning many counties that will nullify the eastern counties raw vote totals for mongiardo

  44.  That Mongirado rural counties would start reporting out of nowhere and make him win. The problem is, Conway is leading in Louisville by 36 points and most of the Western Kentucky counties that are pretty quiet should give Mongirado margins at about 20 points, not 36. It is too early to tell the turnout there. I need to see a western Kentucky county fully report and compare its turnout level to 2008  

  45. conway seems to be doing quite well statewide with absolute crushing margins in the big ‘urbans’

  46. I’d guess he has to continue doing well in SE Kentucky, and then manage to win Western KY by similar margins.

    Conway looks like he’ll have 30,000 out of Louisville alone, plus decent margins in Central KY, Lexington, and strange outliers around the state.

    Since I have no knowledge whatsoever of Kentucky, I’m thinking most of these outstanding precincts are small towns and such, so Dr. Dan will have to win them huge.

  47. Rowan County in eastern Kentucky had about 3,900 votes in the Democratic primary and 3,700 in the primary today. Rowan County is fully in. Morgan County in eastern Kentucky where Mongirado won by 23 points is all in with 3,500 voters. In 2008, there were 3,000. It looks like turnout in eastern Kentucky will be pretty high and Mongirado is topping 70% in a few counties there. The good news is that Mongirado has not done much to the 23,000 vote margin Conway has. Ballard County in Western Kentucky has 1,430 votes with 85% in. In 2008 primary, there were 2,000 votes there. The good news is Nelson County had about 8,100 votes in 2008 and 7,400 votes now and this is a Conway county.

    Even with turnout, those counties probably do not have enough votes though.  

  48. Specter is Jewish, Sestak is Croat (I think?), so one would think Sestak would win white ethnic enclaves…well, Croatian enclaves.

    A precinct apiece in Warren County (NW) and Greene County (SW) just reported and now it’s flipped, Sestak up 53.5-46.5.

  49. Probably the suburban Philly counties, out to York, Lancaster, and Dauphin (Harrisburg), though places as far flung as Erie, Scranton, and the Pittsburgh area all play a huge part.

    I’m really interested in the results for PA-07.

  50. for Specter is southwestern Pennsylvania. He needs to win Philly 60-40

    Sestak needs to do well in the Lehigh Valley region, also in the east. Another key region for Sestak will be south-central Pennsylvania. Lancaster should go to Sestak

    This leaves a swing area of the Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Delaware counties. Delaware County is Sestak’s home area, where he should have a big margin if he is to win statewide. On the other hand, Montgomery County has a large Jewish population, which ought to turn out for Specter.

    All courtesy of TPM.  

  51. and it looks as though that might be the way it turns out. Not much of a screw up.

  52. is viable statewide(he seems to have run a very good statewide race, in my view)

  53. HEYO!

    Long day at work and Lost coming up soon, but I will be back later.  Some thoughts…

    I wanted Conway to win, so I am very glad for those results so far.  I think Conway Vs. Paul is the perfect matchup for us.

    I was team Specter for a while, but I think Sestak is likely the better GE candidate at this point so I’m fine either way.

    Really pulling for Critz as well.

  54. that implies he’s running behind a 3rd-party candidate which is not true. Grayson voters may well defect but for now most polls show Paul with a slight lead over the Dems.

  55. I was troubled by the polls prior to the past week or two, but I thought Conway was a slight favorite.

  56. I didn’t account for “other” candidates accounting for such a large percentage of the vote (12% right now); the gap between the two candidates almost matches the 10% I had guessed (but with 55% for Conway to 45% for Mongiardo).

  57. called commercials. I’m lucky to have a TV by my computer. I’ve been watching MSNBC. I recorded lost but I’m going to watch Maddow instead and save lost for later on.    

  58. at least for the final result. hes had models to predict the result but he said that they are really influenced by turnout.

  59. Halter-Lincoln-Morrison

    What in the world?

    MSNBC noting that the raw vote totals are MUCH, MUCH higher for Conway and Mongiardo than their Republican Senate primary counterparts…

  60. My favorite vacation spot is New Orleans. When I retire I want a house in New Orleans and one in Massachusetts.  I’m used to crazy Republicans.  

  61. Since McCain only won by a small margin, I think that one needs to compare the margins directly to the 2008 election. I know the dynamics are different, but I think it’s a good benchmark.  

  62. Are they more consevative or anti-establishment??

    Maybe we’ll find out on June 8!!

  63. don’t have anything special to add to this. You can read the results just like everyone else.  

  64. Lost is on tonight, and I have a Final tomorrow, what to do?

    BTW, I usually watch Lost online, anyone know when it comes on the TV?

  65. or else nobody would be paying much attention anymore since it’s clear that both will finish below 50%.

  66. Still think it’s going be extremely close at the end, but in general Dems seem to worse in the early returns than Republicans so this seems like good news.

  67. Watch Bucks and Montco.

    I think this is going all the way to the wire–subject to how close Scranton and Erie end up being.  

  68. I’ll feel good when those three SE Kentucky counties still counting (Breathitt, Floyd, Pike) are at 100%, because Conway’s getting killed there

  69. But will it be enough? I’m afraid that those precincts might just end up being small and insignificant.

  70. New Orleans is teh awesome.

    And let’s not tar the entire South with such a broad brush. There are some not-awful parts. Even some of what Sarah Palin would probably call “Fake America.”  

  71. and he gained about a little less than a thousand votes in those 4% of precincts.

  72. 97.5% of Jefferson is in, Conway is still hanging on to a 45-43 lead (about 9,000 in terms of raw votes). The state as a whole is 92% in. I maintain that Conway is favored but not a lock.

  73. I don’t know how good this is for us, but Bullitt county, which is right under jefferson has 0% in, I have no idea if that would be a county that would go for Conway though.

  74. The initial numbers are there now–Conway more than doubling Dr. Dan, though no precincts show reporting. But Conway will probably clean up here as he’s been doing throughout the Louisville metro.

    And it’s not a tiny county–there’s some 75,000 people here, though I couldn’t guess at how many Democrats.  

  75. if things continue as they are, this might not even be as close as the polls predicted.

  76. It’s outside of the geographical base of either candidate, and it’s actually kinda suburban Evansville, Indiana….which is a little weird, I know. But wealthy, suburban Democrats who work in Indiana and live in Kentucky would probably lean Conway, if anything. I’d guess it’ll be mostly a wash as it’ll be quite close.

    They basically tied in next-door Daviess to the east, which is probably the best geographical proxy, but Conway won big in Union, which is on the other side. To the south, away from the river, in more rural counties like Crittenden and Webster, Mongiardo did better, but didn’t run away with it.

  77. I am not a fan of the region’s politics, but there are some nice places. I too have been to New Orleans and enjoyed it, plus Arkansas and Tennessee are really nice. I haven’t been to NC or VA yet, but I’d like to see them.

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