Kentucky Primary Results Thread

8:06pm: Now that polls have closed in Pennsylvania, let’s move this block party to a new thread.

8:03pm: 1449 precincts now in, and Conway leads by 49-39. We still have 91 precincts outstanding in Fayette and 96 in Jeffco. After that, we’re looking at a lot of itty bitty counties.

7:59pm: In KY-06, Andy Barr has won the GOP nod to face off against Dem Rep. Ben Chandler.

7:58pm: The AP has called KY-03 for Todd Lally, in a major voter backlash against Pizza Hut.

7:55pm: 1341 precincts are in, and Conway’s lead has expanded to 50-38. Only 96 precincts in Jeffco remain.

7:52pm: Aaron hears that the Mongiardo camp is worried about low turnout in rural counties.

7:50pm: Ladies and gentleman… the Associated Press has now called your 2010 Kentucky Republican Senatorial nominee… Rand Paul!

7:48pm: 1160 precincts are in, and Conway is up by 49-39. 93 precincts in Fayette remain, and Jeffco remains untouched.

7:41pm: 1004 precincts are in, and Conway leads by 49-38. There are still 127 precincts outstanding in Fayette and 186 in Jeffco. Will that be enough to help Conway hold on? Our crude back of the envelope says maybe not, but I’m also hearing signs of optimism from a source close to the Conway campaign. We’ll see!

7:36pm: 838 precincts are in statewide (out of 3575), and Conway leads 51-37. Keep in mind, though, that Jeffco is now well over half in (Conway is crushing by 60-27 there).

7:34pm: And over in KY-03, Air Force vet Todd Lally is beating the somewhat better-funded Pizza Hut franchise baron Jeff Reetz by 53-16. Someone I haven’t heard of before today, Larry Hausman, is sitting in second with 25%. Go figure!

7:30pm: Fayette is now half in (giving Conway 52-38 there so far), keeping the score at 47-40 statewide with 572 precincts reporting.

7:23pm: Mongiardo has narrowed the gap in liberal Fayette County — he’s now only down by 51-38 there. Overall, with 509 precincts reporting statewide, it’s still 47-40 Conway.

7:21pm: 465 precincts are now in, including an additional 142 from Jeffco, pushing Conway to a 47-40 lead.

7:14pm: 255 precincts in, and Mongiardo leads Grayson by 46-42. Still only 12 of 524 precincts in from Jeffco, though.

7:13pm: Ouch — so far, Trey Grayson is losing his home county of Boone by 30 points to Rand Paul.

7:08pm: 192 precincts now in statewide (including a handful from Jefferson County, where Louisville is located), and Mongiardo has regained a 45-43 lead.

7:06pm: In KY-06, attorney Andy Barr is leading a very divided GOP field with 69% of the vote. Just under 10% of precincts are reporting there.

7:02pm: With 141 precincts in, Conway has now pulled ahead by 44-43. Note that no precincts in Conway’s home base of Louisville have reported yet. Paul’s leading Grayson by 55-39.

6:53pm: We’re up to 44 of 3575 (still only around 1%). Mongiardo leads Conway 48-39 overall (with a surprising 7% for Deb Darlene Price); Conway is up 52-35 in Fayette County, where he’ll need to do well if he’s going to have a chance (it’s the location of the college town of Lexington and the state’s 2nd most populous county). Over in KY-06, Andy Barr seems to have the edge in the GOP primary, at 66% with 3% reporting. (C)

6:37pm: Alright, time seems to be progressing in the normal manner again. With 10 precincts apparently reporting, Mongiardo leads Conway 51-37. Paul leads Grayson 50-43.

6:31pm: I believe we can call this the Curious Election of Benjamin Button.

6:24pm: It looks like the AP (and, subsequently, the Politico) are having some early jitters — for some reason, the number of precincts reported keeps going down on their pages, but the total number of votes is increasing. Whatever the case, Mongiardo now leads Conway 50-38, and Paul leads Grayson by 48-45. Keep in mind that these early counties are generally expected to be more favorable territory for Mongiardo.

6:16pm: With just over 1% of precincts reporting, Mongiardo leads Conway by 56-34. Paul leads Grayson by 49-43.

Polls will close in the Eastern time zone portions of Kentucky at 6pm, and in the CT areas an hour after that. We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns in the KY-Sen, KY-03, and KY-06 primaries. We’ll check in with Pennsylvania (8pm ET), Arkansas (8:30pm ET), and Oregon (10pm 11pm ET) later in the evening.

RESULTS: Associated Press | KY SoS | Politico

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

158 thoughts on “Kentucky Primary Results Thread”

  9. I know its early, but if Paul was really going to mop the floor with Grayson he would be posting a huge double digit margin now, comparable to how Mongiardo is beating Conway pretty badly right now in the Dem primary (yes it will likely narrow because early returns are from rural areas).

    I would assume that Grayson going after some of Paul’s stranger ideas have seriously eroded Paul’s standing. Looks like Paul will still win but it will be much narrower than what we expected, which could be good news for whoever the Dems nominate tonight.

  12. to various precincts because the tea-bagging crazies supporting rand paul were electioneering to close to the polls, in violation of state election laws

  15. One, rural Robertson County in NE Kentucky appears to be fully in, and Conway won by double digits.

    Two, powered by results coming in from Fayette County/Lexington, Conway has taken a narrow lead!

  25. I did not realize just how badly Conway was getting slaughtered in SE KY. in Leslie County, Mongiardo leads 96-0!

    (and just to be nitpicky, it’s Darlene Price)

  30. Even though I deplore Mongiardo’s stances on abortion and gay marriage, I support him because I think he holds the views of the majority of Kentuckians.  

  32. With 29.8% of the votes in, Conway leads in Kentucky with 13% in with 31,292 to Mongirado’s 26,507. In Jefferson County, Conway leads 14,184 to Mongirado’s 6,687.

    Also, an interesting area to watch is the counties just south of Louisville and the counties not too far from Lexington. Conway is winning many of those counties, although by small margins.  

  33.  Is that so far, there are more Democratic primary votes in Kentucky than Republican votes. It could change with more Republican areas reporting later though.  

  36. I’m almost sure my last Final, which happens to be Biology, will suffer from all this election fever.  But hey, it would be worth it.

    If Conway looses, what do you guys think would be the cause?  I think he was generally well funded and ran a good campaign.

  42. With 64.5% of votes in, Conway leads in JeffCo 34 points, ahead of his earlier 30 point lead and he also has about a 17,000 vote lead out of JeffCo. It would be nice to expand the Fayette County lead. Currently, Conway is leading statewide by 15,000 votes.

    Bad news for Conway fans: Boone County, a Cinncinati suburb is 100% in and Mongirado won by 3 points but turnout was low.  

  43. trails 50-38.

    Nicholas County in NE KY finishes reporting. Mongiardo wins, 43.9-43.5. Paul crumples up Grayson and tosses him into the trash, 70-24.

  48. I totally don’t know much about Kentucky, but are there any bellwether counties I should be looking closely at for the Dem primary?

  49. Out of the counties that have 100% reporting, Conway’s wins are much larger margins. And the ones Dr. Dan are winning, are much tighter. If that is the case I can def see a Conway win!

  55. am surprised King is doing so bad. He has been money bombing all of the media markets. It’s really pathetic really. Fischer winning and Souder resigning in one day. I got a great feeling!  

  56.  Alot of rural counties have not reported yet. This is not the best news for Conway but Mongirado has not made much headway since Louisville first announced 64.5% of its precincts.  

  58. With 82% in, Conway leads 25,000 votes. What is really interesting is that Conway’s statewide lead is 25,000 votes, meaning he is tied in the part of the state outside of Louisville.

    However, there are still some unreported rural counties that should look favorable for Mongirado. Also, a few of those rural counties where Conway posted small margins in Central Kentucky are all in.  

  59. Did anyone think that Rand Paul would even come close to winning this thing when he first declared? I know I didn’t.

    With Paul soo out of touch with the state on many issues, I think KY looks as good as it’s going to get.

  60. If Conway wins this thing, He will be the first senate candidate I will donate $25 to.

    I’ve only given money to the congressional candidate who is running in my district, Bill Hendrick

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  61. It’s crossed my mind a bit how in 2004 folks thought Brad Carson, a moderate Dem, could easily beat Coburn, a far out rightwinger and Coburn clobbered him in Nov, even though polls were close. Could it have been Bush coattails? Weren’t there other races were the Dem won narrowly while Bush handily beat Kerry (not Colorado as it was a narrow for both Salazar and Bush)..

  64.  Rowan County had about 3,900 votes in the Democratic primary and 3,700 in the primary today. Rowan County is fully in. Morgan County in eastern Kentucky where Mongirado won by 23 points is all in with 3,500 voters. In 2008, there were 3,000. It looks like turnout in eastern Kentucky will be pretty high and Mongirado is topping 70% in a few counties there. The good news is that Mongirado has not done much to the 22,000 margin Conway has. It has stayed pretty stable since Louisville last reported. It looks like Mongirado can get alot closer looking at the results but he will need to win the remaining votes by 10 points and with only a bit of Louisville left, this is very possible.

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