Oregon: 5-0 with 57% Obama

Despite David’s application has not still political data for Oregon, and would be very interesting to have it since a democratic point (after Illinois, of course), I find the limits for a democratic Gerrymander redistricting of Oregon.

In Oregon, the democrats get really close to win the trifecta this time. We have a tie between democrats and republicans in the state house. But if I’m not wrong, if the state legislature fail drawing the maps, the issue go to the Secretary of State, what is democrat too.

I know not all the details, but it seems Oregon can give the chance of some improvement for the democrats.

Habitually I take as safe districts for the democrats the district with 58-59% Obama (D+5/6). The republicans only win IL-10 (D+6) over D+4 in all the country in 2010 wave, but Oregon is just 57% Obama (D+4) and that mean we can not up all the districts until D+5.

Despite that, Oregon have currently two districts under D+5 in democratic hands, and the democrats from the state are able for keep both despite the republican wave and with Schrader as freshman in OR-05 (D+1), then, I think we can take as safe D+4 districts for Oregon. To up 4 districts until D+5 would mean to have the last district with EVEN rating, and this seems worse since a democratic point.

Then this is the map:


The democratic Gerrymander of Oregon finding the limits is so easy geographically, and need a lot less county split than in the current map.

OR-01: D Wu (D) (Blue)

– 57% Obama D+4 (estimate)

It is the most democratic of the districts by little difference.

OR-02: G Walden (R) (Green)

– 57% Obama D+4 (estimate)

The part of the district inside Multnomah County need to have only the average of the county (77% Obama). G Walden would have harder work for keep the district than in his current R+10 (what is so close geographically).

OR-03: E Blumenauer (D) (Magenta)

– 57% Obama D+4 (estimate)

The part of the district inside Multnomah County need again to have only the average of the county (77% Obama).

OR-04: P DeFazio (D) (red)

– 57% Obama D+4

Need not to go inside Multnomah County. DeFazio get safer than in the current D+2.

OR-05: K Schrader (D) (yellow)

– 57% Obama D+4

A lot more compact than the current district. Schrader get safer than in the current D+1.

Multnomah County has currently three districts inside. I think it would be not a big trouble to have four.


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69 thoughts on “Oregon: 5-0 with 57% Obama”

  1. Your eastern district looks almost the same if you don’t look too closely, but swapping out Jackson county and Grants Pass for a big chunk of Portland moves it from likely R to lean D. It doesn’t look ugly for an X-0 map, although part of Portland + Albany + Medford-Ashland isn’t my idea of a community of interest.

  2. 57% is probably the absolute floor I would go when redistricting for Dem seats that I would want to keep safe.  In some states like Oregon and New Mexico where every seat can be made 57% why not?  In a way having every seat being the same PVI would make it difficult for the GOP to decide which seats to target.

  3. Not ugly at all.  I like it and it surprises me that an R+10 district could be altered to be D+4 without a sick gerrymander (which is illegal in OR).

  4. The Dem candidate in the Eastern district better be from the east, not Portland, or else Dem voters in the east will vote their region instead of their party. Probably the purple district too.

  5. Redistricting law forbids drawing districts with any political considerations or dividing up communities of interest.

    But I salute your sheer brilliance in coming up with this map. Unconscionable and diabolical – hence it being prohibited by law – but masterful.

  6. Metro Portland is about 1/2 of Oregon.

    It’s unfair to the rest of the state to give metro Portland a dominant position in 4 of 5 congressional districts.

    It’s like some of the NY plans that snaked a dozen or so districts from Buffalo to NYC.

    Ds who win in such districts might well ignore the rest of the state.

    I wonder what would happen in related D primaries, whether some unelectable Ds would be nominated, with so many Ds from Portland (incumbents aside)

    Ds already have reasonably secure positions in 4 of 5 districts. Walden isn’t even that doctrinaire of an R, with a Progressive Punch ranking of 258 / 435.

  7. But, as people have mentioned, it’s probably not kosher with regard to the state standards for redistricting. Oregon is probably headed for something resembling a zero-change map that perhaps makes Schrader a little bit safer.

  8. Congressional maps do not go to the secretary of state for drawing if legislative bodies do not approve.  In 2001 the Map for congressional seats were approved by a county judge and then surpreme court okayed it.

    Its legislative seats in Oregon that are drawn by secretary of state if lines are approved.

    If in doubt about this just check at the SOS site for the state of Oregon.

    There is no way a Judge would okay a map like this.

    I appreciate you posting it but its a nice theory but I don’t this will ever be reality

  9. Also, this can turn into a dummymander if any incumbent gets lazy.  I know DeFazio won’t, but Wu or Schrader might.  Also, Blumenauer is probably not used to being in a seat other than his current D+19 one.

  10. maybe a good idea for this new OR-02.

    Still, they are good candidates from Portland what get elected statewide like the senator J Merkley.

  11. And Rep. Blumenauer is a Portland institution. He’s fiery and folksy at the same time, perfect for running up big margins among Democrats and left-leaning independents while keeping the Republican base uninterested.

  12. This isn’t that bad compared to most of the maps I’ve seen here and better than a lot of states’ current maps. I wouldn’t support it for Oregon, but as gerrymandering goes, it’s a mild case.

  13. Walden is also a “Republican for Choice.”  He is also a strong advocate for contraceptive availability.  He is fairly moderate on most other things as well.

    I might even try to draw a map of my own on Oregon that leaves Walden alone, but shores up Schrader.  Hopefully, I succeed in getting it done instead of getting frustrated and giving up like the last couple times.

  14. The part of Multnomah county in WA-01 is really little, under 40K inhabitant, and is only for include D Wu, who lives in Portland inside the district. The part of this district out of Multnomah is D+4 and need not democratic votes from Portland, but the incumbent lives in Portland. The solution is so close to the current WA-01. In the current, and in this new WA-01, Washington county (60% Obama), the second in the state, would have the highest weight.

    The part of Multnomah county in WA-05 is far little than the part of Clackamas county (54% Obama), what would have the highest weight in the new and in the current WA-05. Clackamas county is the third county in the state.

    The new, and the current, WA-04 are based in Lane county, the fourth in the state.

    WA-03 (like now) and WA-02 would be the two district where the weigth of Portland is higher. Jackson county, the 6th, is inside WA-03 and Deschutes county, the 7th, is in WA-02. (Marion, the 5th would be in WA-05).

    This map is a lot better balanced since a geographical point than the map for New York finding the limits. Here the geography give not troubles.

  15. A good portion of Wu’s district, like 3 of the 4 others, are in metro Portland. (The Silicon Forest portion of the noted district is mostly in Washington County.)

    My point still stands. It is unreasonable to have a metro area with 1/2 the population of a state given a dominating (perhaps that’s a bit strong) of a position in 4 of the 5 districts.

    (PS, you have a typo in state two letter designators…)

  16. The counties of the south west of the current OR-02 have an important population and they are 46-47% Obama, while the new area of Portland is 77% Obama. It is an important change what have this strong effect. And both districts, the old and the new, are very close geographically.

  17. I’m thinking also about redistricting WA :) Sorry. It is the high hour too.

    Since this point they are few changes, because the current districts go by the same way than in my map, except the new OR-02.

    But why would be bad if Portland give to the other parts of the state good things? :)

  18. He’s got that seat for as long as he wants it. Scott Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuun, unlike, say, Art Robinson, was a credible, competent challenger who ran a decent campaign and polled ahead of Rep. Schrader in September and October. Schrader beat him convincingly – despite now-Gov. Kitzhaber having to gut out a win in late returns from Multnomah and Lake counties.

    I’m more concerned about shoring up OR-04, where Robinson came within mid-single digits despite being a raving madman who was clearly unfit for public office at any level. Schrader is fine; when he retires, I’m sure Brian Clem would be more than happy to replace him. They’ve been saying the Republicans can flip OR-05 for years and it never happens; I’m a lot more worried about OR-04, where Eugene is just sufficient to counterbalance Albany and a lot of reddish rural precincts. Sure, Rep. DeFazio is probably okay, and when I say “a lot more worried”, it’s all relatively speaking – but it’s a similar situation as to MA-06 in the other thread, where we’ve been talking about how a credible Republican challenger can potentially oust Rep. Tierney despite the Democratic lean of the district because Tierney is not seen as someone who faithfully represents his constituents.

    I love Peter DeFazio, but the fact of the matter is, he is not a terribly good congressman because he’s more concerned about his own agenda than he is about constituent service or representing his district’s interests. He’s not terribly old, and he’s a wonk through and through, so I don’t see him retiring – but I’d be quite happy to replace him with Mayor Sharon Konopa of Albany, because if a nut like Art Robinson can come nearly as close as Scott Bruuuuuuuuuuuun in a more conservative district, who knows if DeFazio can hold off a credible opponent in another bad cycle.

  19. And why would an urban representative care about farmers, farm workers, small towns, etc, especially if they have to cater to Portland for their political survival?

    In addition, what you’re suggesting would probably be struck down in court because of http://www.leg.state.or.us/red

    The criteria that the legislature or the Secretary of State use for redistricting legislative and congressional districts are listed in ORS 188.010. The criteria to be considered requires that each district, as nearly as practicable, shall:

       • Be contiguous;

       • Be of equal population;

       • Utilize existing geographic or political boundaries;

       • Not divide communities of common interest; and

       • Be connected by transportation links.


    1) Your proposal divides communities of common interest — splitting Portland more than is mathematically necessary

    2) It is not possible to drive through your OR-04, aka, you could not drive from Albany to Grants Pass and stay within the district you propose there. It is therefore not “connected” by “transportation links”.

  20. 1) This map only splitt four counties outside Portland, and goes from split Multnomah in three parts to four parts, only one more than in the current map. And this map would tie the current map easily, if David Wu accept to move out of Portland to Washington county. The current map was approved as respectful of these conditions.

    I think the map is not as bad since this point. It is defensible.

    The current map has a lot more ugly splits of Benton and Josephine counties, just in the area of Grand Pass.

    2) Well, if you are right here, I think would be not a big trouble to solve it without change the point of the map.

  21. He won by 11 points against an energetic challenge from Art Robinson. Of course we don’t know what the results would have been if Robinson hadn’t been a looney tune, but he worked harder than most campaigns, I was following his Facebook for a while and they were having 3 or 4 events a day. The big question for DeFazio is whether he cedes the rest of Corvallis to Schrader’s district and whether he picks up the rest of Grants Pass. If both of those happen, little Petey might be in trouble.

  22. ..in the other thread. It can be easy to mix up legislative & congressional redistricting rules for states where they differ.

    Hmm.. As such, I’ll amend the rest of my comment there to say that I think there’s a good chance of a court-drawn map in Oregon. It seems to me that both sides would rather take their chances in court over whatever compromise would be acceptable to the other side.

  23. shocked to discover that the SOS of Oregon can actually draw legislative lines. I would think division of powers and all that would prevent that.  I found out that in 2002 the GOP howled about the lines but in 2010 they split the state house so how bad can the lines be?  The GOP had horrible years in 2004/2006/2008 in Oregon.  In a half way decent year for republicans in Oregon in 2010 they made legislative gains.  I think only 1/2 the senate seats were up and that house nearly flipped too.

    The population shift in OR favor the democrats as Portland area grew faster then the rest of the state.  I can see a standpat plan passing or perhaps the GOP goes to court.  

  24. Still reading the legal texts, I’m not a lawyer and I can not give my interpretation as safe. Cause of this, I was prudent in the introduction of my diary.

    Maybe some people think I give as safe the total control of the process for the democrats, well, I give not. I only mean what the process can be enough interesting since a democratic point and what the democrats can have a little advantage here. The chance of see to the Secretary of State drawing the state legislative maps add some pressure to the republican legislators and they have a really weak position.

    After read your interesting link, I get thinking what here (in Oregon) is not a full control for the democratic side, but I see not the way for the republicans can block a democratic map. They only can go to the court (like in every state where one party have full control).

    Thank you for your comments, this diary can help clearing it, and I think this is a key issue.

  25. The Republicans controlled both branches of the legislature – by 3 or 4 seats in each chamber. Governor Kitzhaber vowed to veto any plan by the legislature – and Oregon’s SOS, Bill Bradbury, a Democrat, drew the lines. By 2008, both chambers were 2/3rd Democratic (or 60%, but enough for a supermajority in both chambers). I would say that an even split of the State House would be more than a halfway decent year (but a good year for Republicans in Oregon).

    That said, I would bet that the R’s try to reach an incumbent protection map for the State Legislature, while agreeing on a Congressional map that keeps OR-5 in play.


  26. Sure you are right.

    I mean what if we take as example this new OR-02 as made under political considerations we can take by the same way the current OR-02 as a republican gerrymander because maximize the chance of give to the republicans a safe seat.

    Then, where are not political considerations?

  27. position.  I think there is a good bit of incentive to do compromise on legislative maps.  If the democrats were to propose a standpat congressional map the GOP would probably go along.

  28. position.  I think there is a good bit of incentive to do compromise on legislative maps.  If the democrats were to propose a standpat congressional map the GOP would probably go along.

  29. would change the character of the districts significantly — in one direction, it would cut into Bend — in the other direction, it would have to come through I-5.

    I do not think that changes to your OR-04 that would respect transportation links are possible.

    As for your other points, they do not respond to the requirement to not divide communities of common interest.  

  30. as a transportation link.

    Be aware, there is no significant north-south road that qualifies east of I-5 or west of US-97 that would meet the requirement for the OR-04 that you’ve drawn.

    And no such road is planned, because of the nature of the mountains in the area. So not only is it “not as big trouble”, I think it is impossible.

  31. Then surely it is your oppinion. Not?

    For do a redistricting map you need not to do any new road. It is so crazy. You can move a little the borders of the districts without significant changes in the population, in the rating of the districts and in the number of counties what you split. You only need open a little your mind for it.

    If this is the biggest trouble, then… it is so easy to solve. To balance the maps for New York or for California was a lot more difficult.

  32. My comment about a hiking trail was sarcastic, I wasn’t actually suggesting that would satisfy the conditions of the law.

  33. Have you looked for a “transportation link” through your OR-03?

    (I did make a mistake — I meant your OR-03, when I wrote your OR-04, but my point still stands. If my confusion about your district numbers has caused this conflict, I apologize.)

    It does not exist. As far as I can see, it is –not– solvable, unless you move your OR-03 into the heart of your OR-04, taking away Eugene from DeFazio, screwing up the balance there — or OR-02’s Bend area, which means that OR-02 would have to go even more into Portland, making Portland even more dominant in a district that takes in most of the geography of Eastern OR, violating the “communities of common interest” item even further.

  34. legislative lines.  You can combine seats-make incumbent move or add unfamilar territory-stuff like that.  I don’t know the details of the 2001 legislative lines as I have not really studied that map.  

    The congressional does neatly slice and dice seats in the Portland area.  DeFazio is certainly one long term incumbent who bears watching as his seat could be an interesting battle when he retires.  

  35. Take it not as offense, please, I want not it.

    First, you need only few precints with very low population for include a road what border Springfield (DeFazio’s home) if they are not more to the east. You need only include the road, not all the city. They are not troubles of balance here.

    But still, if I read well, the law tell:

    “Be connected by transportation links.”

    Not more. Talk not about roads, about hiking trails, about the type of transportation link or about the size.

    Then, if you want a “transportation link” between Albany and Grant Pass, you need not to look only to the roads. As example, both cities have airport. This create a “transportation link” between both cities. It is a elegant “transportation link”, or not?

    I think nothing would be wrong in this map cause of the transportation links, even without roads (and I’m not against include roads if it is necessary.

  36. Nothing to the east of I-5, nothing to the west of US-97. It is typical of the way many major roads were developed in the US West. Side roads only go for a bit — and they either stop or feed back into the main road.

    And the idea that an airport meets the requirement of a “transportation link” is — well, to put it mildly, unreasonable. (I am tempted to use stronger language.) The concept of a “transportation link” is consistent with and reinforces the concept of “communities of interest”.

    Without reasonable transportation links, “communities of interest” are not possible.

    In any case, your OR-02 and OR-03 districts would pretty clearly violate “communities of interest”. What does someplace like Ontario have in common with Portland? What does someplace like Jacksonville have in common with Portland? Nothing.

    In fact, it is patently unfair to have such rural communities dominated by a big city. Rural communities deserve representation too.

    Furhthermore, when tell me to open my mind, you are being condescending. Where is the openness of your mind in consideration of rural communities?

  37. I’m tempted too…

    Maybe not what you wish but the aerial transportation exist for persons and things, and it establish transportation links.

    But going to the roads, the trouble would something like this:

    From the south to the north I think you would come without troubles until Diamond lake and go toward the north and later toward the west by the N Umpqua Hwy until Steamboat, still in my OR-03.

    From Steamboat, you can see in google map (less clear in bing maps) a way named Steamboat Creek Rd going toward the north east. Follow by Brice Creek Rd, later by Row River Rd until Dorena and finally until Cottage Grove.

    Then you can continue by the roads of the border of the town taking the Pacific Hwy toward the north until Clewest. For border Springfield take Cloverdale Rd, Villamette Hwy, Parkway Rd, Jasper Rd, Rob Strawb Pkwy, Main st and McKenzie Hwy toward the north west leaving the borders of Springfield.

    And following McKenzie Hway you are again inside my OR-03.

    Well all that mean you need to move 26K inhabitants from my OR-04 to my OR-03. And still it is possible to do it taking ways what affect to less population still.

    This 26K inhabitants are not enough for unbalance OR-04 and OR-03. Still this would be in the limits for the deviation of population between districts, but if it is necessary I can make a little very little movements in the borders of OR-03/OR-05 and OR-03/OR 02.

    Of course it will be not enough for you because you want what you want. I’m not silly.

  38. He died because he followed some of the forest service roads in Oregon, in terrain similar to that you’ve mentioned — but Kim was in lower elevations. (aka, the roads you mention are even more unreasonable)

    Such roads are not maintained, and are frequently closed during the winter. The Wikipedia article on his story is AFAIK accurate – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J… .

    Those are not legitimate transportation links.

    A map with a rationale like yours would be tossed with a shaken head, given the tragedy associated with his story.  

  39. at least you recognize they are transportation links. Now they are not legitimate (for you).

    Sure you would find too someone what dies in the I-5.

  40. Especially one at 7,000 feet elevation? Typically they’re not paved. How much traffic do you think such roads can handle? How many regular cars? What happens when the gate through that road is closed due to snow? Do you really believe such a link that might join two different areas makes say Portland and Prospect a “community of interest”?

    Do you really believe that your argument about people dying on I-5 would make a difference in the credibility of your district?

  41. If an airport doesn’t count (and I think it doesn’t, unless there is regularly scheduled service, possibly with a minimum frequency), then neither do seasonal roads.  That said, there are areas where the normal transportation is a snowmobile, so I’ll grants roads may not be essential, so long as the lines don’t get too bizarre.

  42. Well, they are transportation links. More than one. It is enough for be inside the condition what tell:

    “Be connected by transportation links.”  

  43. I would need to move far less than 25K inhabitants. Maybe 0.

    They are like six-seven comments where you are only trolling here.

    You dislike the map, well, it is clear. I dislike more G Walden in a R+10 seat in Oregon. It is clear too.

    My map is defensible. I find not to impose it, but I will not accept pure trolling.

  44. AFAIK, there is no rational reason for you to call me a ‘troll’.

    If you are from CA-04, I am surprised. If you lived in Susanville, or even Oroville, would you be happy with a map where a majority of the people in your district is from metro Sacramento? Why do you think that so many from your area (and SW Oregon) support a separate state of Jefferson?

    AFAIK, it’s because they hate the dominance of Sacramento, San Francisco, and yes (on the OR side) Portland in their areas.

    Or perhaps you’re from the Sacramento metro area, and do not care if rural areas are dominated by urban representation. Perhaps one of your earlier notes suggests that you believe in the “virtual representation” described by the British in the early 1770s, is sufficient for rural areas?

  45. If you have some doubt, as person of left I would be happy of see this area in a D+5 district with democratic votes from Sacramento for this area. Just I draw it in my map of California.

    And as person with basque origin, I would be happier still with J Garamendi as congressman for this area. But I draw not it in my map. It was more difficult.

    My closer ties are in the north area of the district. From Susanville until Alturas and toward Reno too. Like you can see very close with the area of Oregon what we are talking about.

    Many democratic congressman can serve better to a district like CA-04 now, from outside the district, since my point, than the current congressman, because they are closer to my view in a lot of issues (economics, socials, gun control, environmental issues…).

    As example, a congressman what want to destroy the social security serve not well to CA-04 (and to no-one district) since my point, and I can tell you a lot more of things. It is nothing virtual here. They are real things.

    If you ask me if some democrat would be better for the defense of the interest of the people from Grant Pass than G Walden, I would answer you yes very fast, even being from the city of Portland. It is not difficult to be better than G Walden in the deffense of a good health care for the citizens from Grant Pass. Since this point E Blumenauer is being better than G Walden for the people from Grant Pass.

  46. By that rationale, Carolyn Maloney represents Plattsburgh better than Bill Owens.

    By that rationale, Jim McDermott represents Bremerton better than Norm Dicks.

    By that rationale, Keith Ellison represents Alexandria better than Colin Peterson.

    While I support Democrats, I support local representation as well. Urban representatives generally don’t have a clue on how to represent rural areas.

    Those urban representatives who do understand are pulled by the interests of their home communities first.

    In either case, such scenarios leave the rural areas unrepresented.

    And if we as Democrats gerrymander to deprive rural communities of effective representation, we do not deserve the name “Democrat” or the adjective “Democratic”.

  47. Carolin Maloney and Bill Owens are both democrats, and their voting records they are not as different. They are differences, but you can look to the details when the most important issues are safe. The voting record of Peterson is far better than the voting record of Walden since my point. You can not forget the general issues.

    This representation it is not virtual, is real. They are a lot of matters what are of general interest, and in all them, I think a generic democrat represent better the interest of the citizens of a district like the current OR-02 than G Walden, despite to work from outside the district. But it is nothing virtual here. The social security is not virtual, the health care is not virtual, environmental legislation, economic legislation, bids for establish gun control,…

  48. That stretches credibility beyond the limit.

    How many rural voters say “I trust people from the big city because they are Democrats”?

  49. But I’m sure the majority of the democrats of Oregon like more Blumenauer (D from Portland) than Walden (R from the suburbs of Portland).

  50. A map like this would be not difficult since this point because Portland it would be rare to have not scheduled service between the airports of Medford or Grant Pass and some airport of the city of Portland.

    As example the Portland International Airport get included in my OR-02, but just is a precinct in the borders of my OR-03. Then I would need to move only 2038 inhabitants from OR-02 to OR-03. Nothing relevant since the point of keep the rating of the districts.

    Good point too about the snow transportation links what use snowmobiles.

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