Despite David’s application has not still political data for Oregon, and would be very interesting to have it since a democratic point (after Illinois, of course), I find the limits for a democratic Gerrymander redistricting of Oregon.
In Oregon, the democrats get really close to win the trifecta this time. We have a tie between democrats and republicans in the state house. But if I’m not wrong, if the state legislature fail drawing the maps, the issue go to the Secretary of State, what is democrat too.
I know not all the details, but it seems Oregon can give the chance of some improvement for the democrats.
Habitually I take as safe districts for the democrats the district with 58-59% Obama (D+5/6). The republicans only win IL-10 (D+6) over D+4 in all the country in 2010 wave, but Oregon is just 57% Obama (D+4) and that mean we can not up all the districts until D+5.
Despite that, Oregon have currently two districts under D+5 in democratic hands, and the democrats from the state are able for keep both despite the republican wave and with Schrader as freshman in OR-05 (D+1), then, I think we can take as safe D+4 districts for Oregon. To up 4 districts until D+5 would mean to have the last district with EVEN rating, and this seems worse since a democratic point.
Then this is the map:
The democratic Gerrymander of Oregon finding the limits is so easy geographically, and need a lot less county split than in the current map.
OR-01: D Wu (D) (Blue)
– 57% Obama D+4 (estimate)
It is the most democratic of the districts by little difference.
OR-02: G Walden (R) (Green)
– 57% Obama D+4 (estimate)
The part of the district inside Multnomah County need to have only the average of the county (77% Obama). G Walden would have harder work for keep the district than in his current R+10 (what is so close geographically).
OR-03: E Blumenauer (D) (Magenta)
– 57% Obama D+4 (estimate)
The part of the district inside Multnomah County need again to have only the average of the county (77% Obama).
OR-04: P DeFazio (D) (red)
– 57% Obama D+4
Need not to go inside Multnomah County. DeFazio get safer than in the current D+2.
OR-05: K Schrader (D) (yellow)
– 57% Obama D+4
A lot more compact than the current district. Schrader get safer than in the current D+1.
Multnomah County has currently three districts inside. I think it would be not a big trouble to have four.
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Your eastern district looks almost the same if you don’t look too closely, but swapping out Jackson county and Grants Pass for a big chunk of Portland moves it from likely R to lean D. It doesn’t look ugly for an X-0 map, although part of Portland + Albany + Medford-Ashland isn’t my idea of a community of interest.
57% is probably the absolute floor I would go when redistricting for Dem seats that I would want to keep safe. In some states like Oregon and New Mexico where every seat can be made 57% why not? In a way having every seat being the same PVI would make it difficult for the GOP to decide which seats to target.
Not ugly at all. I like it and it surprises me that an R+10 district could be altered to be D+4 without a sick gerrymander (which is illegal in OR).
The Dem candidate in the Eastern district better be from the east, not Portland, or else Dem voters in the east will vote their region instead of their party. Probably the purple district too.
Redistricting law forbids drawing districts with any political considerations or dividing up communities of interest.
But I salute your sheer brilliance in coming up with this map. Unconscionable and diabolical – hence it being prohibited by law – but masterful.
Metro Portland is about 1/2 of Oregon.
It’s unfair to the rest of the state to give metro Portland a dominant position in 4 of 5 congressional districts.
It’s like some of the NY plans that snaked a dozen or so districts from Buffalo to NYC.
Ds who win in such districts might well ignore the rest of the state.
I wonder what would happen in related D primaries, whether some unelectable Ds would be nominated, with so many Ds from Portland (incumbents aside)
Ds already have reasonably secure positions in 4 of 5 districts. Walden isn’t even that doctrinaire of an R, with a Progressive Punch ranking of 258 / 435.
You’ve done a truly wonderful job here. Kudos!
But, as people have mentioned, it’s probably not kosher with regard to the state standards for redistricting. Oregon is probably headed for something resembling a zero-change map that perhaps makes Schrader a little bit safer.
Congressional maps do not go to the secretary of state for drawing if legislative bodies do not approve. In 2001 the Map for congressional seats were approved by a county judge and then surpreme court okayed it.
Its legislative seats in Oregon that are drawn by secretary of state if lines are approved.
If in doubt about this just check at the SOS site for the state of Oregon.
There is no way a Judge would okay a map like this.
I appreciate you posting it but its a nice theory but I don’t this will ever be reality
yeah dude you were an idiot proposing this map. it would never happen in a million years.