I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are running and not running; and where the Republicans are running and not running (I am not going to look in detail at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU, and informed by the great Race Tracker Wiki (links throughout).
crossposted to dailyKos
The next two states to have filing deadlines are OH and TX. Today, I am doing OH. I will do TX soon, more to follow (and I will go back and do the states that already passed their filing deadlines).
Ohio has 18 Congressional House districts. 7 held by Democrats:
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican
OH-06 - D+0, .72. No confirmed challenger.
OH-09 - D+9, .44. No confirmed challenger.
OH-10 - D+6, .42. Confirmed challenger (and primary opponents to
Kucinich)
OH-11 - D+33, .07. No confirmed challenger.
OH-13 - D+6, .45. No confirmed challenger.
OH-17 - D+14, .44. No confirmed challenger.
OH-18 - R+6, .77. Confirmed challenger.
so, there are only 2 races where there is a Republican challenger; they have a good chance in one of them (OH-18).
and there are 11 seats held by Republicans
There are confirmed challengers in 8 of those 11 districts:
OH-01 – R+1, .25. Chabot was first elected in 1994. in 2006, he won 52-48, outspending Cranley ($3 million to $2 million). This time, Dreihaus is running. He’s now in the state house, and got 67% in his last election.
OH-02 – R+13, .69. If the incumbent here was not Jean Schmidt, then this probably wouldn’t be close. But it is. In 2006, she beat Wulsin by 2,500 votes out of 238,000 cast. Wulsin is running again. In 2005, Schmidt beat Paul Hackett 52-48, while a year earlier, Bush beat Kerry by 64-36.
OH-03 – R+3, .45. Turner, first elected in 2002, has not been in a close contest. He’s outspent his opponents, but they’ve been serious opponents. In 2006, Crema raised $400,000 but lost, 59-41. In 2004, Mitakides raised $565,000 and lost 62-38 (Turner got 67,000 more votes than Bush did).
– R+6, .63. Hobson, who has held this seat since 1990, is retiring. There are a number of Democratic and Republican candidates. Anyone with local info., please chime in.
OH-12 – R+0.7, .40. Tiberi, first elected in 2002, has won easily, even, as in 2006, when his opponent was fairly well funded.
OH-14 – R+2, .74. LaTourette, first elected in 1994, has won easily, whether or not his opponent was funded. In 2004, for instance, LaTourrette got nearly 2/3 of the vote against Cafaro, even though Cafaro spent almost $2 million. LaTourrette, one of the most moderate Republicans, got 60,000 votes more than Bush. This dailyKos comment indicates that the current candidate (O’Neill) may do better.
OH-15 – R+1, .44. The rep here (Pryce) is retiring. In 2006, this was a very close race (Pryce beat Kilroy by 1,100 votes out of 220,000) and hugely expensive (Pryce spent nearly $5 million, Kilroy nearly $3 million). Now, Kilroy is running again, this time, without the handicap of being against an incumbent.
OH-16 – R+4, .64. Regula, first elected in 1972, is retiring. He won easily, but now, it’s a new ballgame; in 2004, Regula got 60,000 votes more than Bush.
And an unconfirmed challenger in 1 district:
OH-16 – R+10, .81. This seat was left vacant by the death of Gillmor. It was filled by Latta, who beat Weirauch 57-43 in a special election. Weirauch might run again see this comment .
That leaves two districts with no confirmed or unconfirmed candidate
And here they are:
OH-04 – R+14, .72. This is a solidly Republican seat, but Jordan is a freshman. In 2006, he won 60-40 over Siferd, but outspent Siferd by over a million. A candidate here might make the Republicans waste money.
OH-08 – R+12, .63. Boehner, who has been the rep. here since 1990, has won easily against little opposition. But see this comment
Summary
Current: 7 D, 11 R
Outlook: 6 of 7 D are safe. 5 of 11 R look safe.
Best guess: We pick up 3 seats.
We're not quite ready to release the name or the website but there is a Democrat who is going to make the race in the 4th Congressional District.
Stay tuned!
Are these probabilities based on the likelihood of a Republican winning the seat if it were open? Or, do they take into consideration the strength and party of the incumbent?
Even if incumbency is not factored in, however, the probabilities of Republicans winning appear inflated.
For example, the model assigns a 44% chance of OH-09 (Marcy Kaptur) and OH-17 (Tim Ryan) being represented by a Republican.
Even if these two seats were open, Democrats would be heavily favored to retain both of them.
And, with Kaptur and Ryan running for re-election, the probability of a Republican winning (even if confirmed challengers emerge) is essentially 0%.
OH-03 is officially my home district. 03 is light DEM in the GE, but goes wildly for Turner as he is so popular and well liked. Were Turner not an incumbent, this district would be in play and as soon as he retires, it will be. Turner is not nearly as conservative as the left makes him out to be, which is part of his success is a very split district, which more than not reflects the national norm.
OH-02 is about as rock solid GOP as a district can get, but if Schmidt runs again, there is a good chance of besting her. It almost worked last time.
OH-15 – the Columbus area, growing more and more DEM. This is, statistically seen, the very best chance for a DEM pick-up. Demographically speaking, it is only a matter of time before 15 is reliably democratic.
OH-16
the Canton area. I am familiar with Regula. A centrist DEM can win here, but not a wayout-there progressive. If you want to win OH-16, then bring on a DEM candidate with conservative qualities, and you have won. The economy is especially bad in 16.OH-18 – Space is resonating well with his voters. Though this is considered a GOP district, Space is more safe for 2008 than others in the country.
With reapportionment in 2011 based on the 2010 census, now the question is: which district will disappear? I contend that OH-07 will disappear and get divvied up among 15, 03, 08 and 04. This is a republican district that would disappear, but the inclusion of Wright Patterson Air Force base and environs in OH-03 makes the district more GOP leaning than DEM leaning. So, keep a watch on the reapportionment that will have to be done in Ohio.
Now that the filing deadline has passed, OhioDailyBlog has a detailed summary of all the candidates here. It also has news about many of these races here and here. I think we have a good chance at picking up at least 5 of these 6 seats in Ohio:
OH-01 Chabot (R) — State Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Price Hill) is a strong candidate.
OH-02 Schmidt (R) — Dr. Victoria Wells Wulsin (D-Indian Hill) came close last time and “mean Jean” Schmidt is a terrible candidate.
OH-07 Open, Hobson (R) retiring — several strong Democrats running.
OH-14 LaTourette (R) — Former State Appellate Judge William O’Neill (D-South Russell) is a strong candidate.
OH-15 Open, Pryce (R) retiring — Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) almost won last time against a strong incumbent; she has a very good chance this time around.
OH-16 Open, Regula (R) retiring — State Sen. John Boccieri (D-New Middletown) is a strong candidate.
And given how terrible the economy is in Ohio as we begin to slide into a recession, I think a Democrat with a strong populist message might be able to win in several of the other Republican districts too. This could be another transformative election for Ohio, just like 2006.
the Republicans have a “good chance” in Oh-18. That’s sort of been conventional wisdom on their side because Space picked up the seat due to Bob Ney’s indictment and subsequent resignation. But now that he has it and is doing a good job and raising a lot of mnoey this probably won’t be that easy. At bet I’d say they had a chance if they really really commit resources to the district. But with fires to put out all over, they may not be able to do that.
As for Oh-14, my target district, LaTourette has always had weak opponents, mostly underfunded as you mentioned with one exception – shopping mall heiress Capri Cafaro in 2004 who self-funded. But she was a carpet-bagging kid (barely oold enough to run) who was a total newcomer to politics trying to start at way too high a level. She just didn’t come across too well. She’s now been appointed to a vacant seat in the state senate where she can prove herself (she’s very very bright and a fast learner) and she’s toned down the brassy platinum hair and learned to talk more slowly!