Republicans talked a good game at the start of the cycle about the wealth of pick-up opportunities they had in 2008. SSP favorite Tom Cole, boasted of his party’s chances in the Almanac of American Politics that “2008 will be a year to hunt with a shotgun, not a rifle.” Sure, but look who’s holding the gun now.
One such district that the GOP hoped to put in play was North Carolina’s 11th CD, an R+7 district that supported Bush by a 14-point margin in 2004. But things haven’t gone exactly as planned.
First, ex-Rep. Charles Taylor, whom Shuler beat by a healthy margin in ’06, dithered on whether he’d seek a rematch for most of 2007, putting a serious damper on candidate recruitment. When all was said and done, the GOP was left with two recruits: Asheville City Councilor Carl Mumpower and Henderson Co. GOP Chair Spence Campbell. While Campbell had more fundraising potential (he had raised and self-funded a total of $217K through April 16), Mumpower won the May 6th primary.
A Mumpower candidacy brings a number of problems for Republicans. First, he’s not exactly well-funded. As of April 16, he’s only raised $27,000 and has $2000 on-hand. And it sure doesn’t sound like the situation is going to improve any time soon:
Republican candidate for Congress in the 11th Congressional District Carl Mumpower sees a new path to Capital Hill, and it is paved with $5 bills. Mumpower launched a new campaign strategy to fund his run for Congress with $5 donations. Called the “Lincoln Campaign,” the effort seeks to distance Mumpower from political action committees and large-dollar donors.
“I am committed to not accepting any PAC, union, party, or other special interest monies to help me buy a seat in,” Mumpower said in a released statement.
Yup, that’s right — his fundraising will come in $5 increments. He even told the NRCC to shove it:
“I got a call from the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) earlier today,” Mumpower said Wednesday afternoon. “And I told them we were not interested in their money. I believe that organization has passively supported our leadership in abandoning their principles, and I have no interest in aligning myself with a self-serving organization.”
Mumpower said he got quite a reaction for that stance.
“I think they were a little stunned,” Mumpower said. “Maybe there’s a better word for that. I think they were a little surprised. But I’m not interested in the tail wagging the dog. I’m going to run an authentic maverick campaign.”
In this case, I definitely think we can all agree that Mumpower actually is running an “authentic maverick campaign.” Take his recent comments arguing that President Bush should be impeached for his failure to adequately protect the border. That might be one way to “distance yourself” from an unpopular president, but it’s not going to help you raise the funds and profile needed to defeat an incumbent who hasn’t made any fireable offenses in his first term in office.
Due to Mumpower’s sheer flakiness, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
SSP’s full House race ratings are available here.
this is one more seat that we won’t have spend money on;so other seats come into play where the funding saved here may push us over the line in those other seats(the gopers are in melt down)
I would like to see more GOPers like Carl Mumpower running for congress. Not only would that hurt the GOP’s chances, he refusal to take money from people he sees as corrupt would be a nice change from politics as usual.
That said, I hope he loses here by a huge margin and the Democrats don’t have to spend a dine defending it.
You mean Likely Democratic?
Also, I think you meant to change it from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
My mistake!
In addition to this update, we should drop MT-AL from Races to Watch since Hunt was defeated by Driscoll.
Great! Now those of us interested in NC can focus our attention of NC 08 wih Larry Kissel. Even tho he lost by less than 400 votes in ’06, Larry hasn’t attracted nearly so much attention as other, less likely races have. Even tho he’s running a great grass-roots campaign, he could use a few bucks as he is running against one of the wealthiest guys in the House. This is one more southern CD we realistically can snag!
Mumpower is doing with his campaign exactly what Obama is doing with the DNC. I have to commend the guy for sticking his neck out on a limb. Schuler will retain the seat.
Just looked at your predictions for the 2008 Congressional races. It’s interresting that the Cook Political Report is more optimistic than you are about the prospects of Democrats winning House races in 2008.
The following races are now tossups according to Cook — Musgrave (Colo.), Shays (Conn.), Kirk (Ill.), Kuhl (NY), Hayes (NC), Chabot (Ohio) and Reichert (Wash.).
I think what caused the changes has more to do with the pro-Democratic trend among Americans and recent polls showing steep Democratic gains in many swing districts, including a poll that this Web site reported on a few days ago. That poll had Dems up by seven percent in 45 REPUBLICAN districts that are competitive.
I live in Illinois. The Chicago/North Shore district is becoming so Democratic that Kirk is probably a goner — even if Obama hadn’t won the presidential nomination. I suspect Cook will have Kirk as the underdog by Election Day.
And Dems would probably win Henry Hyde’s seat, recently won by a Republican 51-49, if they make a big effort there. However, Dems spent half a gazillion dollars on that seat in 2006 and, thus, will probably skimp financially on it in 2008 (Repubs had to spend half a gazillion dollars in 2006 to retain seat). That district is also becoming more Democratic.
Shuler is a perfect fit for NC-11(economically liberal, socially conservative) and is a local legend from his football days. I don’t see him losing that seat regardless of who they throw against him. I suspect we’ll control redistricting in NC in 2012 anyway and his district can be altered to be slightly more democratic for him.