Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/4-6, likely voters).
Democratic and Republican primary match-ups:
Pat Toomey (R): 41
Tom Ridge (R): 33
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 56
Joe Sestak (D): 11Arlen Specter (D): 60
Joe Torsella (D): 5
(MoE: ±5%)
And here we have a taste of perhaps the reason why ex-Gov. Tom Ridge decided to dispense with the two-bit freak theater that a modern Republican primary campaign against arch-wingnut Pat Toomey would represent. After a long and successful career in politics, why top it off with the ignominy of a possible primary loss to the likes of Toomey? (We should note, though, that an internal R poll had Ridge crushing Toomsbury by nearly 40 points.)
In the Democratic primary, Specter is in pretty decent shape on the surface, but some potential vulnerabilities are quite apparent, according to R2K; only 37% of Democratic voters will definitely vote for Specter in the primary (vs. 16% who say they’ll definitely vote for someone else), and another 23% say they’ll consider choosing a different candidate. (A whopping 24% are undecided on that question, so presumably that vote is up for grabs, too.) Sestak and (especially) Torsella are mostly unknown to the primary electorate right now, so their numbers against Specter would have a lot of room for growth at the end of a big primary fight.
And now for the general election numbers:
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 55
Pat Toomey (R): 31Joe Sestak (D): 37
Pat Toomey (R): 32Joe Torsella (D): 35
Pat Toomey (R): 33
(MoE: ±5%)
Specter crushes Toomey like an empty can of PBR, but the ex-Club For Growth Prez would start off relatively close against either Sestak or Torsella. In terms of raw margins, though, this is very likely Toomey’s high-water mark. By the time the DSCC is done toasting his supply-sided hide, it won’t be close.
that money at the end of the day.
I would say that Specter is in OK shape. But he’s getting old, and the last week suggests to me that he isn’t 100% with it. He’s beatable in the primary IMO.
Is get behind EFCA and a public health plan and he’s set for re-election. The guy clearly has no core beliefs other than getting elected. Why he’s acting so erratically is beyond me.
POS shows Ridge beating Toomey among likely Republican primary voters 60-23.
DKos/R2000 shows Tommey beating Ridge among likely Republican primary voters 41-33.
That’s 45 point swing (Ridge+37 to Ridge-8) between two polls taken at the same time. Way to big to be pure chance or even some slight bias. One of these polls was intentionally rigged to get a desired result.
Any of you from Pennsylvania and want to give it a shot? (joke) 😉
How was a rightwing loon like Toomey able to get (re)elected three times in a D+2 district like PA-15?
It’s a subgroup, so the usual caveats about margins of error apply, but Specter doesn’t seem to have been embraced by the black community yet (despite the claims that he’d get their votes and had done so for decades that I’m sure we’ve all heard). His support is noticeably lower and the undecideds are much higher.
This suggests to me that Sestak (or Torsella if Sestak stays out) needs to make major outreach early amongst this demographic. He needs to build a base of support amongst the black community sufficient that it would be counter-productive for Obama to come and stump in Philadelphia.
And he needs to work on endorsements from congressmen, mayors and ward leaders in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. He might not get Brady or Doyle (both far too machine) but it would be worth trying to get Fattah’s support.
Now I’d like to see some GOP Primary polling with…
Toomey
Gerlach
Lusik
Toomey
Dent
Lusik
This is just disgusting.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…