Dream scenarios almost never happen in politics. But this is America, and if you didn’t learn last year that ANYTHING can happen in American politics you might as well hang up your hat now. That said, I’m looking at the dream scenario that could play out in Florida next year. I should say though, I’M NOT SAYING THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN! I hate it when folks talk with absolute certainty about what can and can’t or will and won’t happen. What I’m saying is, this is a POSSIBILITY and if it doesn’t happen, at least we had the dream. If it does happen though, it will be fantastic.
So, here’s the scenario: Crist runs for Senate, loses the primary to Marco Rubio, and the Senate race and the governorship both flip to our side.
How could this happen?
First, let’s look at the Governor’s race, as I don’t think there’s much argument that, if Crist gets out, it will be competitive.
The Democratic candidate is a no brainer: Florida CFO Alex Sink, who would be an incredibly strong candidate. The Republican frontrunner would, presumably, be Florida AG Bill McCollum, but there’s the rub. There are a ton of Republicans that could jump in if Crist bails: Ag. Commissioner Charlie Bronson, Former House Speaker Allan Bense, Lt. Gov Jeff Kottkamp (who’s in some legal trouble), and potentially some congresscritters. A one on one race between Sink and the eventual nominee would remain a tossup to the end, but a brutal Republican primary…that would make it just that much easier for Florida to elect it’s first female governor, and an incredibly competent and skillfull one at that.
Now, to the Senate race and the scenario that could play out.
There is a formula for Rubio to defeat Crist. It’s not a guarantee, but here it is:
1) Solidify support from the teabaggers and their ilk. These folks are already pissed at Crist over the stimulus and a few other policies he’s pushed and the rage in the Republican ranks is growing only louder and crazier. All Rubio has to do is start popping up at tea parties and laying in a few punches and he’ll get some momentum going. From there, it’s easy to see him appearing on the right wing outlets-Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh, etc. and landing major support that will help tremendously in the primary.
2) Solidify the right-wing Cuban support. Now, let me be clear here, I fully believe that being a member of a group no way guarantees the votes of the members of said group. I’m talking about the right-wing Cuban noise machine here that’s been making south Florida’s politics toxic for decades. Obviously, Rubio has plenty of windows to open here, but that said this whole thing would unravel if major figures from that machine like the Diaz-Balart brothers got solidly into the Crist camp. If Rubio wants to win though, or even if he wants to look serious, he needs to poll well among Latino (specifically Cuban) Republicans. I have no idea where Crist stands on Cuba, but all it will take is one slip, or even the suggestion that he might vote wrong on the issue. Hell, if he doesn’t say anything or gets mealy-mouthed he’ll lose out here. So there’s definately an oppurtunity for Rubio.
3) Enter the CFG. The Club for Growth is already talking up Rubio and are furious with Crist over the stimulus. They’ve been great at bombing races with tons of money and even when they weren’t successful in the primary they’ve often doomed the chances of the more moderate winner. They’ll definately be a major factor here.
4) Keep the momentum going. If Rubio locks up support from these major players in the primary, generates media buzz and decent fundraising (he doesn’t have to beat Crist’s numbers, the CFG will do that. He just has to raise a decent amount and stay competitive), and doesn’t screw up, he can build on this strategy. If he got the NRA endorsement it would help him tremendously, especially in the panhandle. He could also get support from religious right groups who would be all too happy to take on a closet case like Crist in the primary. And speaking of which, there’s always the major shadow hanging over Charlie boy. At some point his sexuality is going to catch up with him at some point, the only question is when it will happen and how bad will the explosion be.
Like I said, I’m not saying this scenario will play out. At best I’d say it’s got a 1 in 5 chance, maybe a 1 in 4. Hell, Rubio could turn out to be blowing smoke and just jump into the Gov. race if Crist gets in. But if he’s not, we shouldn’t write this one off just yet. If Rubio does win in will be narrowly, and he’ll have pushed himself so far to the right that it will be much easier to defeat him than it would be if he won without facing Crist in the primary. If you’ve ever seen Rubio speak, you know he comes off as an ordinary guy, very conservative but still likeable-the worst kind there is. A divisive primary though will come back to haunt him and, who knows, even if Crist were to win he might be so bloodied as to be unreconizable, giving our eventual nominee (whoever it is, though right now I don’t see how it’s not Congressman Meek) an opening.
This one isn’t out of contention by a long shot yet. This could happen. It’s not the most likely scenario in the world, but it’s still a very real possibility.
he will be immediately tagged as a wingnut who purged a moderate, and would lose to even Meek or Gelber.
The CV in Florida is that Crist is untouchable. But there is a path to victory, even if he smashes Rubio. The media is starting to come down on him, so there’s potential for momentum. And a healthy contrast of Crist’s lavish lifestyle with his supposed empathy could tap into voter anger. That’s why I’m dismayed by Meek’s drubbing of Gelber so far; anyone who’s seen both of them together knows that Gelber is smarter, scrappier, and more electable. Meek seems unwilling to get dirty and do the things that are necessary to really damage Crist. Gelber would have no such problems.
as a post partisan. I wouldn’t mind him as a Senator.
I’ll almost guarantee you he runs for Governor if Crist vacates. I don’t buy his BS for a second. He wants no part of Crist.
In case either race becomes winnable.
Same goes with TX-Gov and TX-Sen.
I personally estimate that the true PVI of Florida is approximately R+3. That is, we should fight in Florida as if it were an R+3 state–complete with a very high strong-R percentage.
Hmm, where have I grouped Florida and Texas before…definitely not a list of states whose Democratic parties need some cold water dunking.
New Mexico was the dream come true scenario for us in 2008. R incumbent senator resigns, both R representatives fight it out in a primary damaging each other, Udall cruises to victory, Obama wins in a walk, and we pick up both house seats. Sweet, sweet, sweet.
Isn’t Jeb still a heavyweight in Florida, especially among the Republican primary electorate? Rubio supposedly has ties to Bush. If Bush backs him (and he’ll help bring the money men too), then maybe Rubio has a chance. What’s the relationship between Bush and Crist like?
Has there been any mention of Pam Iorio? I remember a few months back (after Sink declined) she was sounding like a possible candidate, has she since decided against the race?
I realize the chatter for a couple months has held that Crist is an all but declared Senate candidate, but how good are the chances that he ultimately decides not to enter the race?
It’s hard to underestimate how much Crist’s stimulus position has hurt him among Florida Republicans. Marco Rubio has the perfect profile to wage an ideological war against the governor in a Senate primary.
I also think the Club for Growth would be happy to get into the primary on Rubio’s behalf. We all know how many elections CfG has thankfully lost for the GOP by wading into primaries.
Taking all this into account, and ignoring the rumors of his imminent entrance for the moment, I wouldn’t be shocked if he decided to run for reelection. If I were Crist, I wouldn’t risk a promising career on a chance to move to DC and be a moderate junior member of a very conservative minority party.