• PA-Sen: It looks like the threat of a primary from the left may be having some of the desired effect on Arlen Specter. He’s engaged in negotiations on a compromise version of EFCA, and said yesterday that “prospects are pretty good” for such a bill (although it remains unclear what exactly would get cut from the bill).
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand will receive an important endorsement tomorrow: from NARAL. This may help solidify Gillibrand’s pro-choice credentials in the face of possible Senate primary challenges from Reps. Steve Israel or Carolyn Maloney.
• DE-Sen: Rep. Mike Castle, the one guy who can make the open Delaware Senate race interesting, isn’t promising anything right now. Castle set a decision-making deadline of “the next two months,” though. (Unclear whether that’s two real months or two Mark Kirk months.)
• AR-Sen: In the wake of state Senator Kim Hendren’s comments about Chuck Schumer yesterday, a more competent sounding Republican has surfaced to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Curtis Coleman, the CEO of SafeFoods (a “food-safety services company,” whatever that is) and a close friend of Mike Huckabee, announced formation of his exploratory committee this week. Former US Attorney and Rove protege Tim Griffin may also get in; he’s announced a June 1 deadline for deciding.
• KY-Sen: Rand Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul, moved one step closer to running in the Republican Senate primary (theoretically against Jim Bunning), launching his exploratory committee.
• NY-Gov: Observers are noting that Rudy Giuliani is definitely not looking like a candidate for next year’s gubernatorial race. The tipoff is the recent departure of at least three key staff members, including former chief of staff Tony Carbonetti.
• MN-Gov: This should be something of a red flag to Tim Pawlenty: 57% of Minnesotans, according to SurveyUSA, don’t want him to run for a third term as Governor. A lost gubernatorial race would basically doom his 2012 presidential aspirations, so this may up the chances of an open seat instead.
• KS-Gov: New Democratic Governor Mark Parkinson appointed a new Lt. Gov., Troy Findley. Unfortunately, Findley promptly announced that, like Parkinson, he won’t be running for Governor in 2010, leaving Kansas Democrats with bare shelves in both the open senate and governor’s races.
• CA-36: Earlier this week, Marcy Winograd (who got 38% of the vote against Jane Harman in the 2006 Democratic primary) officially kicked off her campaign for a rematch.
• Gay marriage: We’re on the precipice of gay marriage in one more state, as New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch confirmed that he was willing to sign it into law. One catch: Lynch wants a slightly different bill, that includes additional language stating that churches aren’t compelled to marry anyone they don’t want. The legislature is expected to move quickly to add the new language.
• Demographics: Hispanics and Asians are still the fastest-growing groups in America, but their growth rates have slowed down in recent years as the economic downturn has cut into immigration. In particular, Hispanic growth in the Southeast slowed down. This pushes back projections of when the U.S. becomes a minority-majority country, to the 2040s. In other census news, Orange County, Florida (Orlando) became a minority-majority county in the last year (good news for Alan Grayson as he attempts to hold FL-08).
• Redistricting: Utah has an initiative on the table for the 2010 election, proposing an independent redistricting commission (instead of letting the overwhelmingly GOP legislature draw the boundaries). Interestingly, the idea just got a prominent Republican backer: former 11-term Rep. Jim Hansen.
Apparently his spokesperson says he may yet vote for cloture on the Johnsen nomination.
I have to check with my sources who keep telling me Rudy is definitely running for Governor. This is an interesting development.
before it gets silly?
i assume you need to raise a ton of money and that if he doesn’t run, we could get a very messy primary. i understand he’s sitting in the catbird seat.
nay new yorkers getting inside word?
I wish Congress would pass an Amendment requiring all states to have independent commissions draw the state and federal congressional boundaries.
All of the Kansas Dems seem to be terrified of running against Brownback. Brownback’s approvals as Senator have always hovered in the high 40’s to low 50’s. The guy is far from unbeatable. With the ongoing rift in the Kansas GOP a moderate former repub like Parkinson could beat Brownback. Oh well, seems the KS Dems are intent on giving this one away…
The Republican base in IA is outraged about gay marriage, and that will make it hard for a so-called moderate to make any headway in the 2012 GOP caucuses. I’ve heard some Republicans say moderates could take the McCain approach of skipping IA, but I wonder if now the NH Republican base will be just as riled up.
Churches are allowed to refuse to marry anyone for any reason already, right? A heterosexual couple who doesn’t subscribe to the rules of the LDS Church (ie being Mormon, following their principles) can’t force a temple to marry/seal them, so why would a homosexual couple be able to? Is this just shallow political pandering to cover Lynch’s (and Baldacci’s) ass?
A new SUSA poll shows that by a 70-27 margin, Minnesotans think Coleman should concede rather than appeal to the US Supreme Court if the MN Supreme Court upholds the lower court ruling. The number who think Coleman should concede keeps growing the more time passes. Pawlenty, who is not polling so well himself, will be courting MN political suicide if he refuses to certify Franken.
He was on the Rachael Maddow show last night, and I was somewhat impressed (I can’t believe I’m saying this) with him as a candidate. He basically stated that the GOP party is void of leadership, that the GOP has lost it’s principles, and that it’s not surprising to him at all that the Democrats are in power. I guess he’s not looking for any help with McConnell.
Of course, he’s a libertarian, but he did a good job of bashing the GOP. I think we could defeat Paul, too, so maybe if he jumps into the race that won’t be a bad thing.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
From what I’m reading from local papers and readin on the net it looks like the following moves are happening as a result of Crists Senate run.
Gov – Dem Primary:
CFO Alex Sink is confirmed to be running and is almost certain to be the Dem nominee.
Gov – Rep Primary:
AG Bill McCollum is in.
Ag. Commissioner Charles Bronson (no relation to the late actor) is likely in, though he should be no threat to McCollum.
Attorney General – Dem Primary:
Gelber is likely ditching the Senate race to run for AG. This will set up a tough fight against State Senator Dave Aronberg for the job.
Attorney General – Rep Primary:
Current Lt. Gov Kottkamp is almost certainly in and likely the favorite for the nomination.
Ag. Comm – Rep Primary:
Looks like Rep. Adam Putnam is still in and the heavy favorite.
Ag. Comm – Dem Primary:
Looks like former State House member Rick Minton is currently the favorite.
CFO – Rep Primary:
So far State Senator Jeff Atwater looksl ike the favorite.
CFO – Dem Primary:
State Senator Jeremy Ring is the only person in the race as far as I know, but I expect the field to get more crowded soon since Sink is leaving to run for Governor.