Three months ago, the NRCC announced its “Patriot Program,” a Frontline-like effort to protect the most vulnerable Republican members of the House. But then, they did nothing – no announcements, no lists, nothing. For three months. Until, finally, today. Here’s the first-round list:
| Name | District | PVI | 2008 Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Lungren | CA-03 | R+6 | 6% |
| Ken Calvert | CA-44 | R+6 | 2% |
| Brian Bilbray | CA-50 | R+3 | 5% |
| Judy Biggert | IL-13 | R+1 | 10% |
| Joseph Cao | LA-02 | D+25 | 3% |
| Thad McCotter | MI-11 | R+0 | 6% |
| Erik Paulsen | MN-03 | R+0 | 8% |
| Leonard Lance | NJ-07 | R+3 | 8% |
| Christopher Lee | NY-26 | R+6 | 14% |
| Dave Reichert | WA-08 | D+3 | 6% |
Note that despite the PVIs, the only district on here which Obama did not win was NY-26 (carried by McCain 52-46). There are also some pretty notable absences on this list, such as Mike Castle (DE-AL), Mark Kirk (IL-10), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), and Bill Young (FL-10). All of these guys could run for higher office or retire, so maybe the NRCC is tipping its hand here – or just hedging its bets.
Obviously they had to do it for some pr reasons, but if they end dropping anything there I would be surprised. They know a nickel there could be spent better elsewhere.
with the exception of Cao and Reichert, these seats were drawn to be Republican leaning.
Erik Paulsen needs to be careful in his district. He is more conservative than the majority of his constituency. When I was at the capital, I spoke to State Senator Terri Bonoff (D-Minnetonka) who ran in 2008 but lost in the primary to Ashwin Madia. Bonoff would be the perfect candidate to run in Minnesota 3 and is a very charismatic and energetic state senator.
Even when we account for the districts left out (and in addition to the ones mentioned SC-01, SC-02, FL-25, AL-03, MN-06, CA-04, LA-04, MO-09 and NE-02 saw close enough races that they ought to be on the list, whilst there may be something to watch in at least some of OH-02, OH-12, PA-15, WV-02, FL-15, FL-18, FL-21, KY-02, IN-03, MI-08, NV-02, CA-46, AZ-03, TX-07, TX-10, TX-24 and TX-32, LA-06 and KS-02) the list of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is not huge.
I’ve just listed just about all the seats we have a reasonable shot at under the current lines, and in some of them even the reasonable part of that is in question for another three cycles.
That’s because Republicans have lost almost all the old battlegrounds. But this seems like a sign that they don’t expect us to consolidate our gains and push forward.
I’d also note that most of the figures on the list are what passes for moderates in the GOP today. Were they too scared to point out to the likes of Shadegg and Bachmann that they put their seats in danger by being so unutterably crazy?
A proper gerrymander there could do wonders.
Some of the others are interesting. They include Lance and Lee, two freshmen who beat reasonably strong Democratic challengers by significant margins. But they leave out guys like the others you mention. Maybe they do have the inside scoop on those guys either retiring or going statewide.