VA-Gov: Prediction Contest

Alright, folks. It’s that time. List your predictions for today’s Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia in comments. The person with the the smallest aggregate deviation from the correct totals for each candidate just might earn a babka.

83 thoughts on “VA-Gov: Prediction Contest”

  1. However, I leave open the possibility that Moran barely breaks 20% and Deeds gets to 50%.

  6. what was the line in West Wing? Im gonna have to go outside, turn around 3 times and spit?  Oh what the hell, lets do this thing.  Im gonna say Mac’s strong turnout operation and low turnout overall will get Mac closer than the polling suggests but not much more.

    Deeds: 41.3%    TMac: 33.4%    Moran: 25.2%

  7. Since I suspect that a lot of his new-found support is pretty soft and because turnout in VA traditionally blows, not by the blowout that’s been projected.

    Deeds 37

    McAuliffe 33

    Moran 30

  9. Mickey Mouse/other write-ins get the remainder.

    So yes, I’m expecting it to be closer than most folks around here…not because I have any insider information (I’m about 475 miles from Richmond), but because I have a sense that McAuliffe’s machine should not be taken lightly. Still, it’s hard to imagine him winning with the last few polls showing Deeds pulling away.

  11. I’m superstitious about primaries in which the candidate I like most comes out of nowhere into a commanding lead overnight. No, I may never fully recover from New Hampshire.

  19. Given how low turnout is likely to be, who knows? But if you want a guess:

    Deeds 38, Moran 32, T-Mac 30.

    At this point I’m more curious about the race for Lt. Gov.

  22. But news of inclement weather in NoVa is going to make me tweak it.

    Deeds 44, McAuliffe 30, Moran 25, Others/Write-Ins 1

  24. So . . .

    Deeds – 38%

    Moran – 31.5%

    T-Mac – 30.5%

    Now I can get my free sample of something I have never even heard of before this website. And no, I have not tried it.

  26. at the breadsmith in st paul recently – and i didn’t like it that much, not as much as i like a fairly standard chocolate croissant.  but i still want to win.

    deeds 40, t-mac 35, moran 24, other 1

    and i point out my 10/31 ’08 prediction (you can look it up, baby):

    And the tiebreaker:

    MN-Sen: Franken-43 v. Coleman-42 v. Barkley-15

     

  28. I’m going to say, the positive press that Deeds is getting (I’m assuming, right? A quick glance at Google News makes it seem like that) causes a fair number of Moran voters to switch in the booth, but Moran’s got a strong enough field team that he doesn’t collapse. MacAuliffe still has the cash and the turn-out operation, so he makes a strong showing. Deeds rides his momentum and the Anybody But Terry feeling.

    Or something like that.

    Deeds – 39.5%

    MacAuliffe – 36.0%

    Moran – 24.5%

    And, I’ll go one step further:

    (D) Primary Turnout – 135,000

  30. Deeds: 40

    T-Mac: 37

    Moran: 23

    I just think Moran blew a race he could have won and won’t make a dent outside of NoVA.  Split that with McAuliffe and this is what ya get…unless NoVA turns out huge.

  31. …and take the Pollster average and split (most) of the undecideds:

    Deeds:40.6 %

    Moran: 30.5%

    McAuliffe: 28.1%

    Other: 0.8%

  34. NoVA is getting hammered by severe storms in the morning and evening, that pretty much kills Moran’s chances. Deeds has the momentum going in and there’s nothing to suggest that T-Mac can stop it.

  52. When do the polls close? And will SSP be live-bloggin, or do I have to do all the work on my own… I’m on summer break dammmit!

    Deeds: 37

    TMac: 33

    Moran: 30

  55. A little late to remind you all, but there are no write-ins allowed in Virginia primaries, so your numbers should add up to 100.

    Governor:

    Creigh Deeds – 37.8

    Terry McAuliffe – 31.9

    Brian Moran – 30.3

    Lt. Governor:

    Jody Wagner – 68

    Mike Signer – 30

    Jon Bowerbank – 2

    Democratic House primary winners:

    11th: Onzlee Ware

    25th: Greg Marrow

    35th: Mark Keam

    38th: Bob Hull

    47th: Adam Parkhomenko

    52nd: Luke Torian

    69th: Carlos Brown

    80th: Matthew James

    90th: Algie Howell

    Republican House primary winners:

    17th: Chris Head

    23rd: Scott Garrett

    55th: John Cox

  56. With big T-storms rolling through all day, would hate to be polling this race. TO already low and quirked by weather.

    Most amusing was driving during PM rush hour and hearing Moran clip talking about how he is too liberal to be governor of VA. Might want to wait until day after election to wave the white flag.

    Anyway,

    Deeds          45

    Terry Mac      39

    Moran          16

     

  57. Deeds 45

    Moran 28

    T-Mac 27

    It’s hot as hell and has been raining in NOVA all week so i’m assuming Deeds is going to do well with Southern VA turnout and weather being a little better. I’m in DC for college for the year :P.  

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