This old Chris Bowers post – in which he suggested Terry McAuliffe run for NY-25 in 2006 – lists 36 House seats we let go uncontested in 2004. What’s most interesting about this list is that Dems now control four of these seats:
| District | Member | Party | PVI | District | Member | Party | PVI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-06 | Bachus | (R) | R+29 | MS-01 | Childers | (D) | R+14 | |
| AZ-03 | Shadegg | (R) | R+9 | MS-03 | Harper | (R) | R+15 | |
| AZ-06 | Flake | (R) | R+15 | NY-25 | Maffei | (D) | D+3 | |
| CA-22 | McCarthy | (R) | R+16 | OK-03 | Lucas | (R) | R+24 | |
| CA-41 | Lewis | (R) | R+10 | OK-04 | Cole | (R) | R+18 | |
| FL-04 | Crenshaw | (R) | R+17 | PA-05 | Thompson | (R) | R+9 | |
| FL-07 | Mica | (R) | R+7 | PA-10 | Carney | (D) | R+8 | |
| FL-09 | Bilirakis | (R) | R+6 | PA-19 | Platts | (R) | R+12 | |
| FL-21 | Diaz-Balart | (R) | R+5 | SC-01 | Brown | (R) | R+10 | |
| FL-24 | Kosmas | (D) | R+4 | SC-03 | Barrett | (R) | R+17 | |
| FL-25 | Diaz-Balart | (R) | R+5 | TN-07 | Blackburn | (R) | R+18 | |
| GA-01 | Kingston | (R) | R+16 | TX-03 | Johnson | (R) | R+14 | |
| GA-06 | Price | (R) | R+19 | TX-10 | McCaul | (R) | R+10 | |
| GA-07 | Linder | (R) | R+16 | TX-13 | Thornberry | (R) | R+29 | |
| GA-10 | Broun | (R) | R+15 | TX-14 | Paul | (R) | R+18 | |
| KS-01 | Moran | (R) | R+23 | VA-01 | Wittman | (R) | R+7 | |
| KY-05 | Rogers | (R) | R+16 | VA-06 | Goodlatte | (R) | R+12 | |
| LA-04 | Fleming | (R) | R+11 | VA-07 | Cantor | (R) | R+9 |
Obviously most of these districts are still utterly brutal territory. But we very nearly won two others in 2008 – LA-04 and SC-01. We also seriously contested four other seats last year (AZ-03, FL-21, FL-25 & TX-10), and came very close to winning NY-25 in 2006 (before Dan Maffei cruised to victory the following cycle). There aren’t too many other opportunities on this list, barring scandal or an open seat. Obama lost VA-01 by just 51-48, but we got crushed there in a special election in 2007. Still, it’s interesting to see how things have changed in just a few short years.
This district moved rapidly from 2004 to 2008 in Presidential numbers (from 70-30 in 2004 to 60-39 in 2008) and in Linder's own performance against weak, underfunded challengers (from 70-30 in 2006 to 62-38 in 2008)*. I think this area is changing for the better and in a matter of time will be held by a Democrat soon after 2012 (especially the Newton and Gwinnett County portions). Whether or not Linder will continue to represent that area after redistricting in 2012 will be interesting to see, but this area should command another challenger in 2010 to see how things are progressing electorally and demographically.
*Heckman's 2008 fundraising totals ($174K) were decent but this is an expensive area (ATL media market) that will require $500K or more.
Suzanne Kosmas won by A LOT 57% to 41% especially considering that Tom Feeney designed his own district.
This points, again, to the need to go after those Florida seats. Along with California, New Jersey, two Pennsylvania seats (maybe three), and a couple in Michigan. Really going for VA-04 would be a nice touch.