One thing we do a lot of at SSP is speculate, and a favorite topic of speculation is what House districts seem like the most vulnerable ones for each party, and most likely to be pickups. We can go one better than mere speculation, today, though, as the DCCC and NRCC disclosed their own top 2010 targets for a recent piece with National Journal‘s CongressDaily. In each case, they gave a top tier, and then added some other next-best opportunities.
For the Democrats, according to DCCC exec director Jon Vogel:
And for the GOP, according to NRCC political director Brian Walsh:
Interesting choices for the Dems, suggesting that they’re confident about having open seats in DE-AL and PA-06, and maybe even FL-10 (but maybe they aren’t confident about Mark Kirk vacating IL-10?). MI-11 is a solid pick based on last year’s performance (both at the presidential level and by McCotter), but they’ll need to step up their candidate recruitment there. For the GOP, their picks seem about right; the biggest surprise, though, may be that they’re touting challenges to the Virginia freshmen above a challenge to Bobby Bright, who more than anyone else seems to face the problem of a drop in African-American turnout in his district in an off-year election.