WI-Gov: PPP Says Doyle in Rough Shape

Public Policy Polling (6/9-10, registered voters):

Jim Doyle (D-inc): 40

Scott Walker (R): 48

Undecided: 12

Jim Doyle (D-inc): 41

Mark Neumann (R): 42

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.1%)

No diggity doubt about it: these are the worst poll numbers we’ve seen for two-term Dem Gov. Jim Doyle so far this cycle. An early March poll from the Republican firm POS and a Research 2000 poll released last week both had Doyle in the high 40s and ahead of his GOP foes. SSP friend and PPP guru Tom Jensen pops open the hoods of both his poll and R2K’s to tease out the source of disagreement between the two polls:

Where they go in different directions is among Republicans and independents. We find virtually no Republicans- just 6%- approving of the job Doyle is doing while they find 23% looking on him favorably. And while they find only 51% of independents with an unfavorable opinion of him, we find 69% in disapproval of his job performance.

Without a great deal of public polling available from Wisconsin, it’s difficult to say who’s right and who needs an oil change. However, it’s worth noting, as Tom does, that SUSA’s latest polling of the state lines up much more closely to PPP’s findings than it does to R2K’s latest offering.

RaceTracker: WI-Gov

6 thoughts on “WI-Gov: PPP Says Doyle in Rough Shape”

  1. they had a reputation as being Dem-leaning in some of their earlier polls, but their later ones have seemed to lean much more to the other side.  I just don’t see Doyle losing to second-stringers like these guys.

  2. Take a look at the crosstabs on the SUSA polling.  You’ll notice that Doyle only has a 58-34 approval rating among Democrats, and just 53-43 among liberals.  Now, a moderate GOP candidate might have an opening with those people.  Scott Walker, who probably will be the furthest right-winger to ever win a gubernatorial nomation in Wisconsin (he has a sizable lead in the GOP primary) is not the guy to do it, and thus most of them will end up voting for Doyle.  Some of those dissatisfied liberals might consider voting for someone like Sheila Harsdorf, Mike Ellis, or Rob Cowles, to name a few.  They’re probably not going to vote for the biggest Wisconsin statewide right-winger since Joe McCarthy.  Conversely, GOP primary voters are not going to vote for Cowles, Harsdorf, or Ellis.

    Incidentally, Russ Feingold looks like he might go without major opposition this time.  That could give him more time to get the base a little more fired up about voting for Doyle along with himself.  

    Doyle’s boringness might actually be a strength, if all else fails.  If he continues to be unpopular, then his task is to convince people that the boring moderate devil they know is better than the exciting extreme devil they don’t.  

Comments are closed.