Congressional races 2010: California

I’m starting up this series again.  I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.

It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.

Today: California!

Summary: Most CA districts are very safe.  All of those that might be in play are in Republican hands, including

CA-03 Lungren (R)

CA-04 McClintock (R)

CA-19 Radonovich (R)

CA-25 McKeon (R)

CA-26 Drier (R)

CA-44 Calvert (R)

I think we might pick up 2 of these.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: CA-01

Location Northern coast of CA, bordering OR, and going inland to include suburbs of Sacramento map

Representative Mike Thompson (D)

Vote view ranking 154/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 68-24 over Zane Starkwolf

2006 margin 66-29

2004 margin 67-28 (remainder Green)

Obama margin 2008  66-32

Bush margin 2004 38-60

Current opponents Zane Starkwolf

Demographics 47th lowest percentage Black of any district (1.9% Black)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-02 May retire

Location The 2nd roughly parallels the first, but is inland, but not on the NV border, includes Yreka and Chico map

Representative Wally Herger (R)

Vote view ranking 396/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative) First elected 1986

2008 margin 57-43 over Jeff Morris

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 2008 43-55

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None declared, Morris may run again

Demographics 42nd lowest percentage Black (1.2%); 48th most veterans (15.7%)

Assessment A long shot, whether or not Herger retires.

District: CA-03

Location One of the many oddly shaped CA districts, this one loops around Sacramento, and then runs west to the NV border map

Representative Dan Lungren (R)

Vote view ranking 378/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2004

2008 margin 50-44 over Bill Durston

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 62-35

Obama margin 2008 49-49

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents At least 3 confirmed Democrats:

Gary Davis (nice site, needs more info, esp. on issues)

Amrerish Bera (An MD, this site also needs some more info.  His parents immigrated …. from where? Where did he go to school? His issue is public health, and he sounds vaguely centrist) and

Bill Slayton (no web site, a utilities executive).

Demographics 49th most veterans (15.7%).

Assessment Lungren has won by a smaller margin each election, and Obama ran even here. Possible.  My inclination is for Davis.

District: CA-04

Location North western CA, bordering OR and (mostly) NV map

Representative  Tom McClintock (R) May retire

Vote view ranking NA (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative) NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 622 votes out of 340,000 cast, over Charlie Brown

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None declared, Brown may run again.

Demographics 27th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment This one has been close twice now. McClintock has not declared, wait and see.

District: CA-05

Location Sacramento and some suburbs map

Representative Doris Matsui (D)

Vote view ranking 87/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2005

2008 margin 74-21 over Paul Smith

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 70-28

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Current opponents None declared. Smith may run again.

Demographics One of the few district that has high number of Blacks (14.4%, 106th place), Latinos (20.8%, 75th place), and non-white, non-Black, non-Latinos (21.4%, 13th place).  Only 13 districts have more than 10% of each of these groups (the district that is the ‘most’ this way is TX09).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-06

Location Coastal CA north of San Francisco map

Representative Lynn Woolsey (D)

Vote view ranking 3/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 72-24 over Mike Halliwell

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 2008 76-22

Bush margin 2004 28-70

Current opponents None declared, Halliwell may run again.

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $59K, 43rd place) and very Democratic (Cook PVI D+21, 45th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-07

Location Starting NE of San Francisco and continuing NE to Vacaville and east to Pittsburg (no, not the one in PA!) also including El Cerrito and San Pablo map

Representative  George Miller (D)

Vote view ranking 6/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1974

2008 margin 73-22 over Roger Petersen

2006 margin 84-16 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 76-24

Obama margin 2008 72-27

Bush margin 2004 32-67

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 70th fewest Whites (43.2%), with large numbers of Latinos (21.4%, rank = 69), Blacks (16.8%, rank = 95), and others (18.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-08

Location San Francisco map

Representative Nancy Pelosi (D)

Vote view ranking 101/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected   1987

2008 margin 72%, Cindy Sheehan got 16%, Dana Walsh (R) 10%

2006 margin 80-11

2004 margin 83-12

Obama margin 2008 85-12

Bush margin 2004 14-85

Notes on opponents Amazingly, the 2006 opponent raised $150K and got only 19,000 votes. Pelosi hasn’t been under 75% since her first race

Current opponents Dana Walsh is running again.

Demographics Fewer veterans than all but 24 districts (6.8%), and more people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White than all but 14 districts. Also the 18th most Democratic district per Cook PVI

Assessment  Vulnerable.  Ha!  Just seeing if you were paying attention.  Safe.

District: CA-09

Location Oakland and Berkeley and some eastern suburbs of San Francisco map

Representative Barbara Lee (D)

Vote view ranking 4/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 86-10 over Charles Hargrave

2006 margin 86-11

2004 margin 85-12

Obama margin 2008 88-10

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bermudez raised almost $500K.  She got 31,000 votes.  

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Like the 5th, but more so.  35% White (57th lowest), 26% Black (rank = 61), 19% Latino (83rd place), also 15.4% Asian (rank NA). Only 5 districts are more Democratic – and 4 of those are in NY.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-10

Location Eastern suburbs of San Francisco map

Representative None. Ellen Tauscher (D) resigned to take a state job.  There will be a special election.

Vote view ranking NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin

Obama margin 2008 66-32

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent raised $150K; the 2006 opponent raised $7K. They got the same votes

Current opponents A lot of people in both parties are running, see race tracker wiki.

Demographics The 23rd wealthiest district (median income = $65K), it also has a large number of minorities.

Assessment Safe for whoever the Democrats pick.

District: CA-11

Location Central Valley, east of San Francisco. map

Representative Jerry McNerney Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 156.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin 55-45 over Dean Andal

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 65-33

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents Jon del Arroz and Brad Goehring.

Demographics Quite similar to the 10th, with a lot of wealth (median income = $62K) and a lot of Latinos (19.7%, rank = 80).  

Assessment If McNerny runs, this looks increasily safe.  

District: CA-12

Location Southern suburbs of San Francisco. map

Representative Jackie Speier (D)

Vote view ranking 131/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2008

2008 margin 75-18 over Greg Conlon

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 74-24

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics 14th wealthiest CD (median income = $70K) with 33.6% people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White (rank = 13); 28.5% Asian.

Assessment Probably safe for Democrats.

District: CA-13

Location The eastern shore of San Francisco Bay. map

Representative Pete Stark (D)

Vote view ranking 1/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1972

2008 margin 76-24 over Raymond Chui

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 72-24

Obama margin 2008 74-24

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Quite similar to the 12th

Assessment Safe.  Stark is one of the most outspoken liberals in the House.  Go Pete! Tell it like it is. Someone has to!  VoteView ranks him most progressive of all in the House.

District: CA-14

Location Coastal CA south of San Francisco, including Menlo Park and Palo Alto. map

Representative Anna Eshoo (D)

Vote view ranking 122.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 70-22 over Ronny Santana

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin 70-27

Obama margin 2008 73-25

Bush margin 2004 33-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Third wealthiest district (only NJ11 and VA11 are higher median income), also 17th highest percentage of non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-15

Location A long, narrow district running north-south, from Santa Clara to Gilroy map

Representative Mike Honda (D)

Vote view ranking 8.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2000

2008 margin 72-20 over Joyce Cordi

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 72-28

Obama margin 2008 68-30

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Current opponents None declared, but Honda has a primary challenger: Joe Simitian, now a state senator.

Demographics Another wealthy (median income = $75K) district with lots of minorities (29.2% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-16

Location San Jose and south of San Jose to San Martin map

Representative Zoe Lofgren (D)

Vote view ranking 77/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1994

2008 margin 71-24 over Charel Winston

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 71-26

Obama margin 2008 70-29

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Very similar to the 15th.  The 8th most non-Latino, non-Black, non-Whites of any district; 6th most outside Hawaii.  

Assessment Safe

District: CA-17

Location Coastal California from Santa Cruz south to Monterrey and beyond map

Representative Sam Farr (D)

Vote view ranking 54/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1993

2008 margin 73-27 over Jeff Taylor

2006 margin 76-23

2004 margin 67-29

Obama margin 2008 72-26

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics The 31st most Latinos of any district (42.9%)

Assessment Safe.  Farr has quietly worked on district issues, while being solidly liberal on national ones

District: CA-18

Location Central Valley map

Representative Dennis Cardoza (D)

Vote view ranking 201/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 68-33

Obama margin 2008 59-39

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Like the above districts, the 18th has a lot of Latinos (41.9%, 33rd). Unlike them, it is quite poor (median income = $34K, 84th lowest).

Assessment Safe.  Cardoza is relatively centrist, and wins easily in this swing district; safer than ever, now, as the 18th has moved more Democratic.

District: CA-19

Location If there is a middle of CA, this is it. map

Representative George Radonovich (R) May retire

Vote view ranking 363.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1994

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 66-27

Obama margin 2008 46-52

Bush margin 2004 61-38  

Current opponents Les Marsden, a somewhat odd website.  Marsden is a professional musician and actor.  He seems good on some issues (e.g. he’s for nationalized health care) although he’s centrist on e.g. fiscal policy.

Demographics Another district with lots of Latinos (28.2%, rank = 55)

Assessment If Radanovich retires, Marsden might have a shot.

District: CA-20

Location More of the Central Valley map

Representative Jim Costa (D)

Vote view ranking 201/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2004

2008 margin 74-26 over Jim Lopez

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 53-47

Obama margin 2008 60-39

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Josh Miller, apparently a right wing nut, and conservative Christian, chaired a “Yes on 8” campaign.

Demographics 25th fewest Whites of any district (21.4%), and 13th most Latinos (63.1%)

Assessment A moderate Democrat in an increasingly Democratic district, Costa seems relatively safe, but it bears a little watching.

DONE TO HERE

District: CA-21

Location Porterville and north of Porterville in the Central Valley map

Representative Devin Nunes (R)

Vote view ranking 365/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin 68-32 over Larry Johnson

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 2008 42-56

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents None declaredhttp://www.opencongress.org/wiki/CA-21

Demographics Similar to the other Central Valley districts

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-22

Location Runs east-west, the southern edge of the Central Valley map

Representative Kevin McCarthy (R)

Vote view ranking 363.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 38-60

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on variables I track

Assessment Long shot.

District: CA-23

Location A weird, long, skinny strip along the coast from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard, not really contiguous, plus a couple islands map.

Representative Lois Capps (D) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 72/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 68-32 over Matt Kokkonen

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-34

Obama margin 2008 66-32

Bush margin 2004 40-58

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Another district with a lot of Latinos (41.7%, rank = 34)

Assessment Safe.  

District: CA-24

Location Just interior to most of CA-23 map

Representative Elton Gallegly (R) May retire

Vote view ranking 341/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1986

2008 margin 58-42 over Marta Jorgensen

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 63-34

Obama margin 2008 51-48

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents Jill Martinez (ran before, but I can’t find a current website), Shawn Stern, possibly others

Demographics The 35th wealthiest district (median income = $68K).

Assessment Gallegly has had a couple close races (in 2000 and in 1992); Jorgensen didn’t do well in 2008, but this could be close again, whether Gallegly runs or not.

District: CA-25

Location map

Representative Buck McKeon (R) Possibly retiring

Vote view ranking 356/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1992

2008 margin 58-42 over Jackie Conaway

2006 margin 60-36

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 2008 49-48

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents Jacquese Conaway is running again, but I can’t find a current website.

Demographics 56th most Latinos (27.1%)

Assessment This is Republican territory, but Obama did win the district.

District: CA-26

Location Northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles, east to Upland and Rancho Cucamunga map

Representative David Dreier (R)

Vote view ranking 366/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1980

2008 margin 53-40 over Russ Warner

2006 margin 57-38

2004 margin 54-43

Obama margin 2008 51-47

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Russ Warner is running again. This website could use some help.

Demographics A fairly wealthy district (median income = 59K, rank = 44) with a lot of Asians (15.2%)

Assessment Warner lost badly even though Obama took the district, so this doesn’t look too good; still, his name recognition is up, so it’s at least possible.

District: CA-27

Location Shaped like an upside-down U, the middle of the U is CA-28.  This is north of Beverly Hills, and includes Northridge and Reseda. map

Representative Brad Sherman (D)

Vote view ranking 112.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin 68-25 over Navraj Singh

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 62-33

Obama margin 2008 66-32

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another district with a lot of Asians (10.5%) and Latinos (36.5%, rank = 38).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-28

Location San Fernando valley, including Van Nuys. The 28th is shaped like an upside-down T map

Representative Howard Berman (D)

Vote view ranking 87/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1982

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 74-19

2004 margin 71-23

Obama margin 2008 76-22

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Fewer veterans (5.9%) than all but 13 districts.  Fewer Whites (31.4%) than all but 47 districts. More Latinos (55.6%) than all but 21.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-29

Location Another oddly shaped district, shaped sort of like a number 7, with two antennae coming out of the top map

Representative Adam Schiff (D)

Vote view ranking 125/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2000

2008 margin 69-27 over Charles Hahn

2006 margin 63-27

Obama margin 2008 68-30

2004 margin 65-30

Bush margin 2004 37-61

Current opponents None declared.  Hahn will not run.

Demographics More non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos than any but 5 districts (23.7% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-30

Location Coastal California, Beverly Hills to Malibu map

Representative Henry Waxman

Vote view ranking 57.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1974

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 71-26

2004 margin 71-29

Obama margin 2008 70-28

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Current opponents None declared, but there is a primary challenge from Tony Dolz, who would be a blue dog, from his website.  In fact, he sounds like a Republican, not a Democrat at all.

Demographics Wealthy (median income = 61K, rank = 44), lots of Asians (8.8%), few veterans (8.3%, rank = 41).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-31

Location Yet another oddly shaped district, something like a W on its side, centered on Hollywood map

Representative Xavier Becerra (D) Not declared

Vote view ranking 77/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 80-20

Obama margin 2008 80-18

Bush margin 2004 22-77

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer veterans than any other district (3.7%), fewer Whites (9.8%) than any except NY16, more Latinos (70.2%) than any but 5 districts. More Democratic (per Cook PVI) than any but 32.

Assessment Safe.

District: CA-32

Location Yes, it’s another oddly shaped district, it’s shaped a little like NY State, in the northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles map.  

Representative None (Solis resigned to take a state job)

Vote view ranking NA

First elected  2000

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 68-30

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Current opponents Lots of candidates.

Demographics Like the 31st, but not quite as extreme.

Assessment Safe for whichever Democrat wins

District: CA-33

Location This one is shaped sort of like a teakettle in Los Angeles.  This is one of the smallest districts in the US (just 48 square miles) map

Representative Diane Watson

Vote view ranking 25/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2001

2008 margin 87-13 over David Crowley

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 89-11 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 87-12

Bush margin 2004 16-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Relatively poor (median income = $32K, 46th lowest), with many minorities (29.9% Black, rank = 37; 34.6% Latino, rank = 33) and very Democratic (Cook PVI = D+36, rank = 7)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-34

Location Los Angeles, centering on Broadway map

Representative Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

Vote view ranking 87/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 77-23 over Chris Balding

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin 74-26

Obama margin 2008 75-23

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer Whites than any but 3 districts; more Latinos than any but 3 districts (TX15,16 and 28) and lower median income ($30K) than any but 24 districts.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-35

Location Los Angeles, including Gardena, South Central, and Inglewood map

Representative Maxine Waters (D)

Vote view ranking 14/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1990

2008 margin 82-14 over Ted Hayes

2006 margin 84-8-8 (against two minor parties)

2004 margin 81-15

Obama margin 2008 84-14

Bush margin 2004 20-79

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 3rd fewest Whites (10.4%), 32nd most Blacks (34.1%) and 26 most Latinos (47.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-36

Location Los Angeles along Santa Monica Bay and the Pacific map

Representative Jane Harman (D)

Vote view ranking 93/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 68-32 over Brian Gibson

2006 margin 63-32

2004 margin 62-33

Obama margin 2008 64-34

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents No declared Republicans but she has a primary challenger: Marcy Winograd (no web site yet) who is pledging to be a true progressive.  I don’t know if she has a chance, but, in this safe district, a real progressive would be good. Other Democrats may run as well.

Demographics 27th most non-Blacks, non-Whites, non-Latinos

Assessment Safe for any Democrat.

District: CA-37

Location Long Beach map

Representative Laura Richardson (D)

Vote view ranking 93/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2007

2008 margin 75-25 over Nick Dibs (Indep), no R.

2006 margin NA (she won her 2007 race 67-25, with almost no one voting – a total of about 21,000 people)

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 80-19

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Similar to the other Los Angeles districts

Assessment Safe

District: CA-38

Location Another weirdly shaped district, shaped sort of like a 7 on it’s side, with the middle of the 7 in East Los Angeles, then extending south about 8 miles to Norwalk, and east about 20 miles to Pomona map

Representative  Grace Napolitano (D)

Vote view ranking 77/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 82-14 over Chris Agrella (Lib). No R.

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 2008 71-27

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Current opponents none declared

Demographics Again, similar to those above

Assessment Safe

District: CA-39

Location Horseshoe shaped district including Whittier, Cerritos and Lynwood map

Representative Linda Sanchez (D)

Vote view ranking 119.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected   2002

2008 margin 69-31 over Diane Lenning

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 2008 65-32

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st fewest Whites (21%), 18th most Latinos (61.2%), modest income (median = $45K, 153rd place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-40

Location An inverted horseshoe, it caps CA47 and includes Cypress, Fullerton and Orange map

Representative Ed Royce (R)

Vote view ranking 439.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1992

2008 margin 63-27 over Christina Avalos

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 2008 47-51

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents : None declared

Demographics Demographically, hard to distinguish from the Democratic districts in the area

Assessment A long shot.

District: CA-41

Location A wedge shaped district, running east-west. In the west, it includes Redlands, Highland and Yucalpa (the eastern edge of the Los Angeles basin) and runs west through desert to the border of AZ and NV map

Representative Jerry Lewis (R)

Vote view ranking 305/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1978

2008 margin 62-38 over Tim Prince

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents : None declared.

Demographics Lots of veterans (16.1%, 39th place)

Assessment Long shot.

District: CA-42

Location A funnel shaped district, with the top running from La Habita to Chino, and the point in Mission Viejo map

Representative Gary Miller (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 355/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 60-40 over Ed Chau

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 2008 45-53

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents : Michael Williamson, a strange website.

Demographics 13th wealthiest district (median income = $70K), with a large Asian population (15.9%)

Assessment Another Republican district, but Miller may also be a crook: He seems fond of claiming that his land was taken under eminent domain, and thus dodging taxes, and is under FBI investigation. He also uses his staff to run his personal errands…..uh oh…. and now he’s running against a cop.

District: CA-43

Location Runs east-west from Ontario to San Bernadino map

Representative Joe Baca (D)

Vote view ranking 158.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1999

2008 margin 68-32 over John Roberts

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 2008 68-30

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Similar to many of the California districts: Lots of Latinos, few veterans, few Whites.

Assessment Safe for Democrats; Baca is fairly centrist, so the primaries might be worth looking at

District: CA-44

Location runs NE to SW, with the northeasternmost city being Riverside, and the southwesternmost being San Clemente map

Representative Ken Calvert (R)

Vote view ranking 318/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 52-48 over Bill Hedrick

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-35

Obama margin 2008 50-49

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents He has a primary challenger, and then Bill Hedrick is running again.  This, to me, is what a “running for congress” site should look like.  

Demographics Another district with many Latinos (35.0%)

Assessment A Southern California Republican.  Ethical and legal troubles.  Calvert also has ties to Duke Cunningham. He was also found in a car with a prostitute, with her head in his lap, and both of them partially unclad.  He said they were just talking.  hmmmm. Where are his ears?  Hedrick looks like a good guy, e.g.

Supports EFCA

Wants Manhattan Project type thing for energy technology

I will fight not only to end our dependence on foreign oil, but also to hold all oil companies accountable for profiteering. I will always put our national security, the needs of our economy, and the interests and health of all Americans before the self-serving interests of oil industry lobbyists.”

District: CA-45

Location A long narrow district running east west near the southern end of CA, from Moreno Valley in the west to the AZ border map

Representative Mary Bono (R)

Vote view ranking 291/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 57-43 over Julie  Bornstein

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 2008 52-47

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents Steve Pougnet.  Too busy, in my opinion, too much motion.

Demographics Also heavily Latino (38.0%, rank = 35)

Assessment Obama won, but Bono won easily, even in 2008.

District: CA-46

Location Coastal CA including Long Beach and Costa Mesa, and some islands map

Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 416/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1988

2008 margin 53-43 over Debbie Cook

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-33

Obama margin 2008 48-50

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents No declared Democrats, but he has a primary challenger.

Demographics Another wealthy district (median income = $62K, rank = 34) with a lot of Asians (15.4%)

Assessment Another Southern California Republican with ethics problems – he’s tied to Abramoff.  Still, this is a Republican district.  

District: CA-47

Location East of the 46th and south of the 40th (both Republican) is the 48th (which is Democratic). It runs north-south, including Anaheim and Santa Ana map

Representative Loretta Sanchez (D)

Vote view ranking 119.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin 69-26 over Rosie Avila

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 2008 60-38

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents Van Tran

Demographics More Latinos (65.3%) than all but 11 districts, also 13.9% Asian.  Fewer Whites (17.3%) than all but 10 districts, fewer veterans (5.2%) than all but 9.

Assessment  Should be safe

District: CA-48

Location Coastal California from Newport Beach south to Laguna Niguel map

Representative John Campbell (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 435/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2005

2008 margin 56-41 over Steve Young

2006 margin 60-37

Obama margin 2008 49-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 58-40

Current opponents Beth Krom (another too flashy site, IMHO).

Demographics The 15th wealthiest district (median income = $70K)

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-49

Location A V shaped district, running from Oceanside (on the coast) to Parris and into San Diego county [map

Representative Darrell Issa

Vote view ranking 388/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 59-37 over Robert Hamilton

2006 margin 63-33

2004 margin 63-35

Obama margin 2008 45-53

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Another heavily Latino district (29.5%, 52nd place)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-50

Location Coastal California from Carlsbad south to Solana Beach and a little beyond, and inland to Escondido, surrounding San Diego map

Representative Brian Billbray (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 371/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2006, but was in House 1994-2000

2008 margin 50-45 over Nick Leibham

2006 margin 53-43

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 51-47

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents At least 2 Democrats: Francine Busby and Tracey Emblem.  Busby lost a squeaker a while back.  She’s good.  I don’t know much about Emblem, her site is a work in progress.

Demographics Relative wealthy (median income = $59K, 40th place).

Assessment Possible.  

District: CA-51

Location The southwest corner of CA, bordering Mexico and AZ map

Representative Bob Filner (D) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 28.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1992

2008 margin 72-25 over David Lee Joy

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 62-35

Obama margin 2008 63-35

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd most Latinos (53.2%), 23rd fewest Whites (21.3%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: CA-52

Location An L shaped district, running from the San Diego suburbs east and then north through mountains and desert map

Representative Duncan Hunter (R) retiring

Vote view ranking 342/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1980

2008 margin 57-39 over Mike Lumpkin

2006 margin 65-32

2004 margin 69-28

Obama margin 2008 45-53

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-53

Location Central San Diego, and some suburbs map

Representative Susan Davis (D)

Vote view ranking 129.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 68-28 over Michael Crimmins

2006 margin 68-30

Obama margin 2008 68-30

2004 margin 66-29

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe