Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/6-8, likely voters, no trendlines):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44
John Kasich (R): 39
R2K is now the third straight pollster to peg Strickland in the mid-to-low 40s, apparently solving the OH-Gov polling mystery. This is not a pretty chart:
One important thing to note, though: R2K has Obama’s favorables at 59-35 in Ohio, while Quinnipiac pegs them at 49-44. R2K is probably the outlier, though, as the two firms show similar favorables for Strickland, and Q’s job approval numbers for Obama now match up with PPP’s.
As a result of this recent nosedive, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on OH-Gov from Likely Dem to Lean Dem. Of course, it’s early; if Strickland can pull out of this tailspin, then we’ll be ready to adjust our rating once again as needed.
R2K also looked at the Senate race:
Lee Fisher (D): 22
Jennifer Brunner (D): 17
Lee Fisher (D): 42
Rob Portman (R): 35
Jennifer Brunner (D): 40
Rob Portman (R): 36
These numbers are very similar to those shown by Quinnipiac and PPP.