Today: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware
Summary:
Colorado has 7 representatives: 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans. The only seat that might be in danger is Markey’s in CO-04
Connecticut has 5 representative, all Democrats
Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican, and its a potential gain for the Democrats.
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: CO-01
Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern map
Cook PVI D+21
Representative Diana DeGette (D)
VoteView rank 93/447
First elected 1996
2008 margin 72-24 over George Lilly
2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 74-24
Bush margin 2004 31-68
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)
Assessment Safe
District: CO-02
Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies. Also the exurbs of Denver map
Cook PVI D +11
Representative Jared Polis
VoteView rank 187.5/447
First elected 2008
2008 margin 62-34 over Scott Starin
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin NA
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Scott Starin is running again.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Polis won easily in 2008, should be safe
District: CO-03
Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative John Salazar (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 207/447
First elected 2004
2008 margin 61-39 over Wayne Wolf
2006 margin 62-37
2004 margin 51-47
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Martin Beeson
Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)
Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe. It’d be nice to have a more progressive rep, but better a blue dog than a red Repub.
District: CO-04
Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Betsey Markey (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 56-44 over Marilyn Musgrave
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Two confirmed Republicans and a bunch of possibles (see Wiki
Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment This is a Republican district; Musgrave was an awful person; even if Markey runs, it will probably be hard-fought.
District: CO-05
Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Doug Lamborn (R)
VoteView rank 439.5/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 60-37 over Hal Bidlack
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 66-33
Current opponents None declared. Possible primary challenge
Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.
Assessment A long shot
District: CO-06
Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Mike Coffman (R) Not confirmed
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 60-40 over Hank Eng
2006 margin 59-40
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Two declared Democrats:
David Canter
and
John Flerlage
I don’t have a strong sense of either of them.
Assessment This is a Republican district; if Coffman runs, it’s a longshot. Even if he does not, it will be tough.
District: CO-07
Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)
VoteView rank 203.5/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 63-37 over John Lerew
2006 margin 55-42
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Brian Campbell
Demographics Not unusual in what I track
Assessment Of the Democrats in CO, this is probably the least safe, but the Republicans don’t even have a declared candidate
District: CT-01
Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative John Larson (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 119.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Visconti
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin 73-27
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 39-60
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on things I track
Assessment Safe
District: CT-02
Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Joe Courtney (D)
VoteView rank 137/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 65-32 over Sean Sullivan
2006 margin 83 votes
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 44-54
Current opponents Matthew Daly and Daria Novak
Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)
Assessment One close race, one easy victory. I won’t say “safe” but it looks good. Novak’s website is like a joke (see the Wiki for a link), with no issues and some pix of her at a tea party. Daly has a more professional website, but he’s a wingnut, not suited to the district.
District: CT-03
Location New Haven and areas around it map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Rosa DeLauro
VoteView rank 93/447
First elected 1990
2008 margin 77-20 over Bo Itshaky
2006 margin 76-22
2004 margin 72-25
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 42-56
Current opponents Itshaky is running again.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: CT-04
Location NYC suburbs – Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Jim Himes (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-48 over Chris Shays
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)
Assessment Himes won a close one over the incumbent Shays; how safe this is probably depends on the opponent.
District: CT-05
Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Chris Murphy (D)
VoteView rank 142/447
First elected 2006
2008 margin 59-39 over David Capiello
2006 margin 54-44
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Current opponents Justin Bernier
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Probably safe.
District: DE-AL
Location Delaware.
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Mike Castle (R) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 250/447
First elected 1992
2008 margin 61-38 over Karen Hartley Nagle
2006 margin 57-39
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin 62-37
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents John Carney and Scott Spencer; neither website has much on the issues.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Castle used to win more easily, and he’s getting older, and has been ill, and Delaware is more and more Democratic…. we have a shot!
Perlmutter is definitely safer than Markey or Salazar. That district was drawn for him (literally, it was called the “Perlmutter district” when it was drawn, but he didn’t run for it until 2006).
I don’t think Himes will have any trouble getting re-elected. Murphy’s district is more Republican, he had a strong (for New England) Republican challenger, and still won by 20.
Castle won’t lose while he’s in the House, because he and Carper are buddies and the “Delaware way” means friendship overrides party. An open seat would be an almost-guaranteed pickup, though, especially with Carney running.
Either Castle retires or runs for Senate; either way, he sounds less likely he’s returning to the House as weeks pass (recent comments and turning down leadership posts point to that). That will lead to a pretty interesting primary for Team Blue: New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, State Sen. Bethany Hall-Long, and former Wilmington City Council President Ted Blunt could all make bids as they’ve expressed interest in the past.
CO-01 isn’t that “oddly shaped.” It is the city of Denver, plus some close-in suburbs. The arm extending to the north east is Denver airport, which is in the city limits but, of course, is virtually unpopulated.