Yes, I have created another Democratic gerrymander. I think the redistrictors in Arizona must create competitive districts. I was able to create some competitive ones. My main objectives were to strengthen Gabrielle Giffords, Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell. They are all Democrats elected to the U.S House in 2006 and 2008 in districts that McCain won in the single digits. Except maybe for Kirkpatrick, I probably strengthened those Democrats. I was able to weaken John Shadegg enough to attract strong competition. As for the other Republicans, I kept their district safely Republican while creating two new Republican districts. I had to do that because all those Republicans had to go somewhere. It is pretty difficult to aim for a 5-5 or 6-4 Democratic delegation in a state McCain won with 53% of the vote. Now here are the maps.
Northern Arizona
Southern Arizona
Phoenix area
Tucson area
District 1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Blue
I am sorry I could not strengthen Kirkpatrick much. The best I could do was to remove only a small slice of Conservative Yavapai County. Also, I wish I could include the Hopi Reservation to allow more Democrats but because of a rivalry with the Navajo, I am unable to put both tribes in the same districts. Except for taking out a bit of Yavapai County, the district pretty much remains the same. Since Kirkpatrick easily won here by 16 points, she should be safe enough. McCain probably won 53% of the vote here. Racial stats are 16% Hispanic, 21% Native American and 60% White. Status is Likely Democratic.
District 2 Trent Franks (R) Green
This district stays pretty much the same except I moved a bit of eastern Glendale and western Phoenix out of the district. I took in some White parts of Yuma County and a bit more of Coconino County which totals to about only 7,000 people. This district probably voted about 60% for McCain. Racial stats are 17% Hispanic and 73% White. Status is Safe Republican.
District 3 John Shadegg (R) Bright Purple
Shadegg should be in for a tough race with this map. I removed the more Conservative northern part of his district. Even though I slipped in part of the current Republican 2nd district, this should not alter the political leanings of this district enough. To weaken Shadegg tremendously, I added in parts of the heavily Hispanic 4th district. This increases the Hispanic population from 14% to 30%. In 2008, Shadegg said he wanted to retire and then retracted the statement. Such a shaky district would probably propel him to retire. With Shadegg gone, this district is a prime pickup for the Democrats. The redistricting panel will like it because it is competitive enough. Obama probably won 51% of the vote here and he certainly would have won more voters if McCain were not from Arizona. The racial stats are 30% Hispanic and 59% White. Status is Toss Up if Shadegg stays, Lean Democrat if he retires.
District 4 Ed Pastor (D) Red
I had to move this district into some Republican areas to strengthen Obama’s performance in other districts. I remember Michael Barone in the Almanac of American Politics 2006 said that Republicans can dominate because they win fast growing areas. Well Michael, did you know that the fastest growing Arizona district is the heavily Hispanic 4th? The growth of Hispanics has been useful in shoring up other districts. Still, Ed Pastor should be fine in this majority Hispanic district. Obama probably won 64% of the vote here. Racial stats are 6% African American, 58% Hispanic and 31% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 5 Harry Mitchell (D) Yellow
I removed most of northern Scottsdale from the district and part of Tempe. I substituted that by adding part of the current 4th district to boost the Hispanic population here. Mitchell is in his late 60’s and he may retire soon. This district should be safe for him or any other Democrat who represents it. Minorities should become the majority here in a few years. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Racial stats are 5% African American, 34% Hispanic and 53% White. Status is Likely Democrat if Mitchell retires, Safe Democrat while he represents it.
District 6 Jeff Flake (R) Teal
I kept Flake’s district pretty much the way it used to be. I removed all of Pinal County and kept the district centered on Mesa (just for trivia, Mesa is larger than Cleveland, OH but most people in the East have never heard of it.) There are a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Mesa but they should not be nearly enough to offset the Republican majorities in the rest of the city. McCain probably won 60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 23% Hispanic and 68% White. Status is Safe Republican.
District 7 Raul Griljava (D) Gray
This district is about the same except I moved most of the Tucson area and substituted it with heavily Hispanic areas in Phoenix. I took out some Republican areas in Yuma as well as La Paz County. The Pinal County portion stays the same except I added a few Hispanic precincts. Since this district has a Hispanic majority, Griljava should not worry. Obama probably won 55% of the vote here. That should be safe enough. Racial stats are 5% African American, 5% Native American, 54% Hispanic and 34% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 8 Gabrielle Giffords (D) Purple
One of my priorities was to protect Giffords from a strong challenge even though she seems pretty safe in her district. To protect her, I removed every inch of Cochise County from this district and replaced it with almost all of Tucson and some Hispanic areas in Pinal County. With Republican battles for the 10th district over in Cochise County, Giffords should have no strong opponent. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Racial stats are 35% Hispanic and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 9 No Incumbent (R) Light blue
If a Republican does not win here, I am shocked. I removed the whitest areas I could find from the 3rd and 5th districts and slipped in parts of the 6th district due to population growth. It would be great if someone could tell me about state legislators who might run here but former Congressman J.D Hayworth might take a run at this seat. I imagine there will be a big Republican battle for the seat but Democrats will have token opposition. McCain probably received 62% of the vote here. Racial stats are 12% Hispanic (the lowest amount for any of my districts) and 81% White (the highest for any of my districts.) Status is Safe Republican.
District 10 No Incumbent (R) Pink
This district basically takes in Republican parts of the old 8th, 7th and 1st districts. With the more Democratic areas in those districts, the 10th should stay heavily Republican. The only possible problem is growth of Hispanics but that should not be an issue for awhile. The competition in this district will be in the Republican primary. The candidates could be Randy Graf from the southern part of the district or someone from Maricopa/Pinal County. McCain probably won 59%-60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 22% Hispanic and 69% White. Status is Safe Republican.
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When I was doing arizona I decided, just for fun, to try to make as may Hispanic majority or plurality seats a s I could. My 8th looked similar to yours, taking the city of tucson and meandering down to the Mexican border. I made Mitchell’s hisp. majority and kept Grijalva and Pastor about the same.
By pointing out that your premise, while not impossible, isn’t exactly the most likely one with which they’ll operate. In 2000, they tried to ameliorate the lopsided 5R-1D delegation by creating a map that in a neutral year would elect a 5R-3D delegation (thanks for blowing that, George Cordova). I think it’s most likely that they focus on getting two safe Republican districts, making a map with a generic lean of 5-5, and at the same time make sure there are at least a handful of swing districts. On the surface you make two new Repub districts, but I’d take it as all but certain that Shadegg runs in your new AZ-10 if he doesn’t retire, so you’ve basically created one new lean Dem district. Meanwhile, all two of the three Dems are in notably less competitive districts than they were. One or the other would probably be ok, but two that Republicans aren’t going to touch is probably pushing it. They might draw a district or put an incumbent in a district that’s going to eventually trend more Democratic (which they might have done deliberately with the old AZ-05), but drawing one that starts out Obama voting (especially when you moved two other districts over to Obama) is probably DOA.
So the other thing I’d want to touch on is communities of interest, which generally speaking trumps pretty much everything except for the basic things like continuity and VRA. Considering your goals and that you probably don’t know AZ super well, you definitely didn’t do bad. Here are a few bright spots and some points of concern.
– You broke up the Gila River Indian Reservation and the Salt River Indian Reservation, neither of which are going to happen by any stretch of the imagination. Luckily it’s not that hard to fix in your district.
– Pinal County really showcases the limitations of DRA. It spreads out population growth equally across the board, which obviously is going to create major problems in counties like Pinal that have more than doubled in population. As it happens, AZ-07’s section of Pinal County has exploded with suburban gringos, home to a town called Maricopa that is now home to more than 40,000 people who commute on a 2-lane road into Phoenix for some masochistic reason. I really doubt that the area is still majority Hispanic like it was in 2000 when the area was home to like 5000 farm labors. Again, you probably didn’t know this but from a communities of interest point of view it doesn’t make much sense to continue to include. If you want to stay in Pinal County, try to get over to older parts of Eloy and Coolidge. At the end of the day, though, it’s probably easier to use parts of AZ-07’s former chunk of Maricopa County.
– Not to pile on with AZ-07, but frankly it’s not as strongly Democratic as you’re claiming. By in large, the Whites you’ve left in this district are VERY conservative. The current AZ-07 is basically a de facto coalition district as a sizable chunk of the Hispanic population are not citizens and the district relies on University of Arizona, and the White liberal parts of Downtown & Old Northside to make it so decidedly Democratic (in fact, when it looked like Grijalva might become Interior Secretary, a lot of the names I heard floated as possible successors were Tucson Anglo Dem. At first I thought it was ridiculous, but the more I thought about it, that makes a fair amount of sense). Obama probably only won it with the low to mid single digits.
– That being said, a basically united central Tucson does look pretty nice from a community of interest point of view. Those districts with such a high non-citizen population are really a mess that’ll have to eventually be worked out. My guess is that they maintain the status quo, because there isn’t like there’s necessarily a community of interest problem at the moment.
– Downtown Phoenix is a blatantly gerrymandered mess. Your plan for Ahwahtukee is never going to happen; put it all in the 5th. I’d probably just give Grijalva some more of Maryvale rather than hopping across South Mountain Park and picking up random precincts on the other side. You’re 3rd and 4th are really transparent gerrymanders and never going to happen. Nice try, but Pastor isn’t getting northern Glendale. Actually, for what you’re trying to do, a new Central Phoenix-based district does make a lot of sense. Smooth out the lines though. If you must maintain the gerrymander, at least move the 4th into El Mirage and Buckeye (while dodging Luke AFB), so at least it kinda sorta makes sense. Smooth out the lines too. If you’re going to go that path, there’s a fair amount of White liberals that you’re avoiding that would make sense in the Central Phoenix district.
– I like your new 9th, though that chunk of Mesa is sorta awkward. Try to keep all of Mesa in the 6th, all of Tempe in the 5th (looking at them, it looks like the two chunks that are separated from the rests of their towns are pretty similar overall), and then adjust Phoenix accordingly.
– Your 10th is a little more interesting. It brings up interesting questions about which communities of interest trump others. Their are both big differences and big similarities between the Pinal and the Pima suburbs. Probably not how I would have done this, but there’s of course a good argument for it nonetheless.
Just wondering (assuming), perhaps McCain had greater coattails in some areas.
If that assumption is true, then perhaps some of the newly drawn districts will be more D than the 2008 PVI numbers might suggest.
I don’t know if there’s any way to quantify the post-McCain effect.
Two Republicans, two Democrats, and an Independent chosen from a list by the other four. It’s not going to be a Democratic gerrymander.