Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/13-15, likely voters, no trend lines):
Paul Hodes (D): 42
Charlie Bass (R): 37Paul Hodes (D): 38
Kelly Ayotte (R): 39
(MoE: ±4%)
This is probably the first legit public poll of the New Hampshire Senate race in a while (no, UNH and ARG do not count), so take a good long look.
Each of the three pols tested here boast decent favorable ratings, with Hodes at 34-21, Bass at 31-23, and Ayotte leading the pack at 36-13. However, as Laura points out, Ayotte also holds the largest share of “No Opinion” responses (51%), meaning that Hodes and the NHDP have a big opportunity to define her before she can set her own narrative.
RaceTracker wiki: NH-Sen
I thought that Hodes would have a bigger lead over Bass, and I thought he would actually lead Ayotte.
In any case, I just don’t see how Republicans could possibly hold this seat against a generally popular guy like Hodes. I hope his fundraising kicks up, but I’m not too worried yet.
Ayotte has never been elected to anything.
and their ads will be very tone-deaf because they think what works in red states will work in NH.
If It’s Ayotte we lose, plain and simple.
I think that Ayotte has hit her ceiling and most of the undecideds will break for Hodes. John Lynch is not too pleased at all with Ayotte and if he runs for governor again his landslide victory (70%+ of the vote) will put Hodes over the top. In addition, Ayotte will have trouble fundraising since no one has even heard of her. The polling in the this race will be similar to that of the Cardin/Steele race or the Menendez/Kean race. However, Obama will try to help Hodes win since Hodes was an early supporter of Obama back in the NH primary. Nothing to worry about here.
“Hodes will win” and “we’re doomed”. Certainly a tie game 16 months out isn’t that great, but we’re still 16 months out and the campaign hasn’t begun.
That said, Hodes needs to step up his fundraising now. This will be at least a $5-7 million race, and he’s only at $1 million.