Previous diaries:
Summary:
Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans
Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans
Kansas has 4 representatives: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans
Possibly vul: IN-02 (D)
IA-03 (D)
KS-04 now open but was (R)
Sources:
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: IN-01
Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Peter Visclosky (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 127
First elected 1984
2008 margin 71-27 over Mark Leyva
2006 margin 70-27
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 62-37
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: IN-02
Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Joe Donnelly (D)
VoteView 235
First elected 2006
2008 margin 67-30 over Luke Puckett
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Not completely safe, but only vul to a very good Republican opponent. Tom Weatherwax may run; he is a former state senator.
District: IN-03
Location Northeastern IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Mark Souder (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 338
First elected 1994
2008 margin 55-45 over Michael Montagno
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents There is a primary opponent, but no Demorats so far.
Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI
Assessment Gotta be a long shot.
District: IN-04
Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Steve Buyer (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 380
First elected 1992
2008 margin 60-40 over Nels Ackerson
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 69-28
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment long shot
District: IN-05
Location Central IN, including eastern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Dan Burton (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 410
First elected 1982
2008 margin 66-34 over Mary Ruley
2006 margin 65-31
2004 margin 72-26
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents At least one Republican is primarying Burton, and others will run if he retires.
Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot
District: IN-06
Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Mike Pence (R)
VoteView 431
First elected 2000
2008 margin 64-33 over Barry Welsh
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 41st fewest Latinos
Assessment Looks tough
District: IN-07
Location Indianapolis and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Andre Carson (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 147
First elected 2008
2008 margin 65-35 over Gabrielle Campo
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 71-28
Bush margin 2004 42-58
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 50th most Blacks (29.4%)
Assessment safe
District: IN-08
Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Brad Ellsworth (D)
VoteView 233
First elected 2006
2008 margin 65-35 over Greg Goode
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-51
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Dan Stockton
Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Looks safe; Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat, fits the district well, running way ahead of both Bush and Obama.
District: IN-09
Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Baron Hill (D)
VoteView 229
First elected 2006
2008 margin 58-38 over Mike Sodrel
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Todd Young and Travis Hankins
Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment After a close race in 2006, Hill won easily in 2008, he should be OK, and he’s already raised over $200K.
District: IA-01
Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bruce Braley (D)
VoteView 151
First elected 2006
2008 margin 64-36 over David Hartsuch
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 58-51
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)
Assessment Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent in 2006. Of course, if no one runs, it’s completely safe.
District: IA-02
Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dave Loebsack (D)
VoteView 93
First elected 2006
2008 margin 67-39 over Mariannete Miller Meeks
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-38
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Steve Rathje
Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)
Assessment This is an increasingly Democratic district, and Loebsack should be OK
District: IA-03
Location Central IA, including Des Moines map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Leonard Boswell (D)
VoteView 194.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 56-42 over Kim Schmett
2006 margin 52-46
2004 margin 55-45
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)
Current opponents None declared. Michael Mahaffey may run.
Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)
Assessment Mahaffey ran against Boswell in 1996, and it was close. Boswell has already raised $150K, but this bears watching.
District: IA-04
Location Northern central IA, including Ames map.
Cook PVI Even
Representative Tom Latham (R)
VoteView 290
First elected 1994
2008 margin 61-39 over Becky Greenwald
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)
Assessment Latham has won easily in the past, but this is a swing district. With the right opponent, who knows?
District: IA-05
Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Steve King (R) May run for Governor
VoteView 419
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-37 over Rob Hubler
2006 margin 59-36
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)
Assessment Long shot, whether it’s King or another Republican; in fact, King (something of a nut, even for the Republicans) may be slightly more vulnerable than a more sane human.
District: KS-01
Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO map
Cook PVI R + 23
Representative Jerry Moran (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 30-69
Bush margin 2004 72-26
Current opponents 7 Republicans are vying for this seat, the 12th most Republican per Cook PVI; No Democrats so far.
Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%)
Assessment Long shot
District: KS-02
Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Lynn Jenkins (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-46 over Nancy Boyda
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-55
Bush margin 2004 59-39
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Jenkins seems safe.
District: KS-03
Location Kansas City and suburbs map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Dennis Moore (D)
VoteView 196
First elected 1998
2008 margin 56-40 over Rick Jordan
2006 margin 65-34
2004 margin 55-43
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Patricia Barbieri Lightner, maybe others.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Moore, who had close races early in his career, now seems safe.
District: KS-04
Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Todd Tiahrt (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 64-34
Current opponents At least 2 Republicans are running, and at least 2 Democrats: Donald Betts and Robert Tillman (no site)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races; and Betts, a state senator, has run before. Could be interesting.
He’s not running this time, just hasn’t taken down his old website. The 2010 candidate is Raj Goyle. He’s good. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
It is a district that sees large swings and close votes – if Republicans can find a strong candidate (neither of their current two seem to meet that description), Hill will face a tough race. The good news is that he understands how marginal his district is, and therefore is usually prepared for a tough race. (I’m assuming we won’t see the 5th Baron Hill/ Mike Sodrel contest in a row — Hill is 3 for 4 in the races against Sodrel so far, only losing in 2004, while winning in 02, 06 and 08.)
Brad Ellsworth is in a similar situation, but he is such a great fit for his district, and there is an ancestral southern Democratic vote in the district except in Presidential races, that he should continue to hold the seat unless the Republicans come up with a great candidate (and/or if a national trend goes against the Democrats).
And, as noted correctly in the comment above, Raj Goyle is running in KS-4 and he is by far and away one of the strongest candidates we could run here (the others would be State Treasurer Dennis McKinney and former Congressman Dan Glickman) – in an open seat race, this could definitely be worth investing in.
Leonard Boswell is undoubtedly one of the weakest Democratic incumbents in the country — especially considering that he’s been in the House for over a decade, not a candidate who first won in the “wave” elections of 2006 or 2008. He is pretty lackluster and has never really managed to gain a firm hold on the district. He faced a serious primary challenge of the the left (Ed Fallon) last time, and that couldn’t be ruled out again in 2010. But assuming Boswell is the nominee, the DCCC is going to have to spend like crazy to help defend the seat. (And redistricting for 2012 may mess things up even more, assuming Iowa loses another seat.)
Tom Latham should be a Democratic target, but there has been a tendency for a Democratic candidate to emerge late into the race, usually a second stringer (no disrespect intended for Greenwald or Spencer), and run a poorly financed campaign. The fact that we didn’t come close to beating him in 2006 or 2008 shows how well he has become established in this very closely divided district. If we are going to challenge him seriously, someone strong needs to get into the race NOW. And the future of the seat is quite questionable given the dramatic changes that 2010 Census will bring about.
—
If you don’t already use it, the Politics1 website done by Ron Gunzberger does a pretty good job of tracking candidates and possible candidates – and he keeps it very up to date. It is worth adding to the resources you use.
http://www.politics1.com/state…
Souder has hit 54% and 55% (with no third party candidates)the last two cycles. He has to be considered at least somewhat at risk.
IA-2 has a typo. The last cycle the Dem won by a 57-39 margin not 67-39 (2 minor candidates).
IA-4 in 2006: Spencer may have been a little underfunded but he was a great candidate with an outstanding stump speech that tied Latham to Bush and his failures. Greenwald was much better funded but did not do as well. Partly because Spencer was very good and perhaps partly for gender reasons. Iowa remains one of two states never to have a woman as Governor, US Senator or US Representative. The other is Mississippi. There were two women in reasonably tght, well-funded races in 2008 but both Becky Greenwald and Marianette Miller-Meeks lost.
Desmoinesdem disagrees with me about the gender gap and I have never been to Iowa but …