Public Policy Polling (7/17-19, registered voters):
Charlie Melancon (D): 32
David Vitter (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Here’s our first public polling glimpse of this race in several months, and these numbers aren’t too terrible for Vitter, although he actually does worse against a Generic Democrat than against Melancon, leading by only 44-38. However, voters aren’t exactly thrilled with the idea of sending Vitter back for a second term; only 38% say he deserves another term, while 47% say that it’s time to give someone else a chance. Still, Vitter’s favorable scores (44-39) and job approval rating (44-36) are both in net positive territory.
Somewhat disturbingly, Melancon’s favorable rating is 26-32. You never like to see a challenger starting off a race in the net negative territory, but that still leaves him with 42% of the electorate that are approaching him with no firm opinions. And it’s also possible that this poll is a bit off; a March poll by Research 2000 gave Melancon a 43-18 rating, and also pegged the race at 48-41 in Vitter’s favor.
Tom Jensen sees parallels to Mary Landrieu’s 2008 race:
Vitter really is in a pretty similar situation to where Mary Landrieu found herself a couple years ago. She polled in the 40s in a lot of early surveys against John Kennedy, raising Republican hopes that she could be defeated. But she still ended up winning by a solid if not spectacular margin. Whether Democrats can better take advantage of the opening they appear to have here only time will tell.
And speaking of Melancon… it’s been over a month since word leaked that he was planning on running against Vitter, and those in the know assure us that he is definitely in. Melancon said that he would be making an announcement “in the coming weeks”. Just how many weeks did he have in mind?
UPDATE: I forgot to mention that there is also some continued speculation (hope?) among Louisiana’s press that Bobby Jindal will run against Vitter in order to save the office for the GOP, and many are now pouncing on a recent non-answer that he gave about the Senate race as proof that he’s leaving his options open. To me, it looks more like a brush-off by someone in a hurry rather than anything substantive, though.
My money goes to the August recess.
Yay, recess!
is because a certain percentage of the electorate is now automatically predisposed against a Democrat, and will say so.
Vitter’s in decent shape overall, that said. But I think Melancon can make a race of his if he plays his cards right.
Is she another Jesse Ventura on the make?
Melancon with a net unfavorable rating? I don’t believe it. That said, the overall spread is believable, Melancon doesn’t have a big statewide profile yet, Vitter being in the mid 40s is realistic.
We’re possibly looking at a 6 seat pickup next year:
1. New Hampshire
2. Missouri
3. Ohio
4. Kentucky
5. North Carolina
6. Louisiana
That would leave the Senate split 66-34. Should Hutchison and Coburn retire in Texas and Oklahoma, respectively, that’s another two sleeper races on the horizon. I’m especially excited about our chances in a Texas special election with a guy like Bill White.
63 would be great. It would mean we probably won MO, NH, and Kentucky and everthing else will be the same. That’d mean we wouldn’t have to rely on 3 of the blue dogs. Most likely NE and the two form AR.
Are there any possibility that Jay(SoS)Dardenne, instead of Jindal who’s reluctant to resign during
first term under the pressure from ruling GOP in order to save the office will run against Vitter ?