Quinnipiac (7/14-19, registered voters):
Dan Onorato (D): 16
Jack Wagner (D): 16
Tom Knox (D): 13
Undecided: 55Tom Corbett (R): 38
Jim Gerlach (R): 15
Pat Meehan (R): 9
Undecided: 37
(MoE: ±4.3%)
Quinnipiac’s first look at the Pennsylvania governor’s race of 2010 finds that, well, people still haven’t decided on much of anything yet. AG Tom Corbett has a pretty solid edge in the GOP field (as the only statewide GOPer), and Rep. Jim Gerlach may be left wondering if he was safer staying in PA-06 all along. On the Democratic side, Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner both poll at 16, leaving them way behind “Undecided,” who has a solid majority.
Given that few people have any idea who these guys are, Quinnipiac simply asks a Generic Democrat/Generic Republican question instead of a bunch of different head-to-head permutations. Hearteningly for Democrats, that race is a dead heat, with R beating D 38-37. One other interesting number: Gov. Ed Rendell, who’s termed-out, seems to have caught the same case of recession-itis that’s dragging down all the other governors in the northeast and Rust Belt: his approvals are down to 39-53, in the wake of Pennsylvania’s month without a budget, down from 54-37 from their last measurement in May.
One other thing to think about: former US Attorney Pat Meehan had, for a period of about half a day in May, looked like he was about to bail on the governor’s race and move over to the probably open seat in PA-07, where he used to be Delaware County DA. Meehan batted down that rumor, but with his paltry performance in today’s poll, and now with Rick Santorum (an ally of Meehan) urging him to give a second thought to running in the 7th, you’ve gotta wonder if Meehan is reconsidering.
RaceTracker wiki: PA-Gov
Forgive me if I’m not jumping for joy over these numbers. Better than being crushed, true, but these governors races are shaping up to be a bit of a nightmare come Nov. 09 and 10.
And Democrats are behind by almost 10 points among independents, Rendell (the status quo) is hugely unpopular, neither of the Western PA Dems seems close to being a flawless candidate against Corbett – I think this is going to be a tough race for the Democrats.
every 8 years. Corbett is a strong favorite IMO.
Jim Gerlach has always came extremely close to being defeated but then wins. I really really wanna see him lose an election.
is scarier.
is that these numbers look so bad for Gerlach he may consider dropping out.