WI-Gov: Doyle Won’t Seek Third Term

Big news out of Wisconsin:

Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle has told associates he will announce this week that he won’t seek a third term in 2010, POLITICO has learned.

By deciding against a run, Doyle, a Democrat, sets off what could be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country next year. […]

But sources familiar with his decision not to seek a third term say Doyle recognized the difficulties he may have faced next year and didn’t want to go through another campaign after a long political career.

This race was already shaping up to be a pretty competitive one (SSP recently downgraded this race to Lean Dem), and a pair of legit GOP challengers have already stepped up to the plate: Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann. Topping the list of Democratic prospects is the current Lt. Governor, Barbara Lawton. However, Politico speculates that she may enter the Dem primary as the incumbent, as Doyle has long been rumored as a potential recipient of an Obama administration appointment. That might be a double-edged sword for Lawton — yeah, incumbency usually is a powerful attribute, but incumbent governors are facing an unusual level of unpopularity across the nation this year. As Governor, she may have to make some hard choices that will only serve as baggage in 2010.

Other potential Dem candidates, highlighted by the Politico, include Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Rep. Ron Kind and state Sen. Jon Erpenbach.

Special thanks to desmoinesdem for getting the discussion started in the diaries.

RaceTracker Wiki: WI-Gov (Quick! Give it an update!)

33 thoughts on “WI-Gov: Doyle Won’t Seek Third Term”

  1. One of the reasons that wanted to run for a third term is probably because he didn’t think Lawton could win statewide.  I don’t know for sure what he is thinking of course, but my guess is that he thinks that if he let Lawton take over now, it might be just enough of a boost to win the primary but lose the general.  

    And,this decision will now set off some dominoes in WI-3 and state legislative seats within WI-3.  Ron Kind was already facing his toughest challenger yet–GOP State Senator Dan Kapanke’s Senate district is actually more Democratic than WI-3.   Kapanke has managed to win a 62% Democratic district twice despite being very conservative.  

    If Kapanke wins WI-3, however, the silver lining for Democrats is that there would then be a special election for his senate seat, one that they would have a very good chance of winning.  

  2. has a better favorable to unfavorable ratio than Doyle:

    Lawton: 35% favorable, 17% unfavorable

    Doyle: 42% favorable, 48% unfavorable

    Lawton is viewed favorably by all demo groups except Republicans. She has a 32-13 favorability rating among independents.

    Lawton beats Walker and Neumann in head to heads and only loses to Tommy Thompson, who is unlikely to run, by 2 points.

    Kind and other possible Dem candidates were not included in the poll. But, based on the above numbers, there is no urgent need at this point for Kind or anyone else to jump in.  A September 2010 primary would not be helpful, either.

    http://www.dailykos.com/statep…

  3. He’s safe in his district — “toughest challenger” is relative, he’s perfectly safe in 2010.  His work has been pointing to a Senate seat when Kohl retires.  Running for Gov then immediately for the Senate would be a pretty bad choice.

    Glad to see Doyle go before he became Pat Lucey and overstayed his welcome.

  4. I think that Jim Doyle made the right decision, generally a sitting governor’s approval rating should be at least in the mid 50s if they want to run for a third term. I think that Barbara Lawton will probably run and Ron Kid won’t challenge her in the primary. Lawton should be able to beat Kathleen Falk and Tom Barrett in the primary and has stong enough approval ratings to be favored in the general election. If Lawton runs she will be one of three new prospective woman gubernatorial candidates the others being Diane Denish in New Mexico and Alex Sink in Florida.

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