Previous diaries
Summary:
PA has 19 representatives: 10 D, 8 R
RI has 2 representatives, both D.
Possibly vulnerable:
PA-06 (R)
PA-07 (D)
PA-10 (D)
PA-16 (R)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: PA-01
Location Philadelphia and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Robert Brady (D)
VoteView 83
First elected 1998
2008 margin 91-9 over Mike Muhammad
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 86-13
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 15-84
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 9th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: PA-02
Location Philadelphia and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 38
Representative Chaka Fattah (D)
VoteView 77
First elected 1994
2008 margin 89-11 over Adam Lang
2006 margin 89-9
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 12-87
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Demographics 32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%). 4th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: PA-03
Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over incumbent Phil English
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Elaine Surma, possibly others
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Dahlkemper ousted Phil English, who had been in the House since 1994; she has raised an impressive $521K, and Surma has no website yet and no fundraising numbers. Should be OK, but Dahlkemper is a freshman in a swing district.
District: PA-04
Location Western PA, bordering OH map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Jason Altmire (D)
VoteView 236
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-44 over Melissa Hart
2006 margin 52-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Altmire ousted Hart in 2006, and has now beat her twice
District: PA-05
Location Northern PA, bordering NY map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Glenn Thompson (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 57-41 over Mark McCracken
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%).
Assessment
District: PA-06
Location West of Philadelphia map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Jim Gerlach (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents The only confirmed Democrat is Doug Pike, others are considering running. Confirmed Republicans include Curt Schroder and Ryan Costello, with others considering.
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment A prime pickup possibility. This district is trending Democratic, and the Gerlach won narrowly in every election.
District: PA-07
Location Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Joe Sestak (D) Running for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents No confirmed Democrats; those considering running include Bryan Lentz and Greg Vitali
Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment This district is fairly Democratic, but by no means a sure thing.
District: PA-08
Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Patrick Murphy (D)
VoteView 187
First elected 2006
2008 margin 57-42 over Tom Manion
2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 44th highest income (median = $59K)
Assessment Looks fairly safe
District: PA-09
Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Bill Shuster (R)
VoteView 340
First elected 2001
2008 margin 64-36 over Tony Barr
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino.
Assessment Long shot
District: PA-10
Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Christopher Carney (D)
VoteView 234
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-44 over Chris Hackett
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Christopher Bain, possibly other.
Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)
Assessment Do you have to be named Christopher to run here? 🙂 This is a fairly vulnerable district, at R +8; Carney has raised $350K.
District: PA-11
Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)
VoteView 169.5
First elected 1984
2008 margin 52-48 over Lou Barletta
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Possible primary; no confirmed Republican.
Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)
Assessment What happened between 2004 and 2008? This might be vulnerable.
District: PA-12
Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative John Murtha (D)
VoteView 169.5
First elected 1974
2008 margin 58-42 over William Russell
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Russell is running again, as is Tim Burns. And Murtha has a primary challenge from Ryan Bucchianeri
Demographics 32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%). 3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment The primary looks easy for Murtha, and, although Russell has raised a huge amount of money (over $1 million), he lost to Murtha pretty badly in 2008, and probably will again.
District: PA-13
Location Suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)
VoteView 162
First elected 2004
2008 margin 63-35 over Marina Kats
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 56-44
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents Damian Dachowski
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: PA-14
Location Pittsburgh and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Mike Doyle (D)
VoteView 112.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin 91-9 over a Green party candidate
2006 margin 90-10 (against a green)
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 70-29
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%)
Assessment Safe
District: PA-15
Location Central part of eastern PA, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Charles Dent (R)
VoteView 255
First elected 2004
2008 margin 59-41 over Sam Bennett
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 50-50
Current opponents John Callahan (site under construction) is running and Sam Bennett may run again
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot, but possible. Still, if a Democrat can’t win here when Obama won by 13 ….; although some have said that Bennett had some local problems.
District: PA-16
Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Joe Pitts (R)
VoteView 405
First elected 1996
2008 margin 56-39 over Bruce Slater
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Lois Herr (this website needs some more info)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Pitts has not raised much for an incumbent with a challenger (only about $100K). Lois Herr called me up as a potential donor, and she sounds good. Might be vulnerable.
District: PA-17
Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Holden (D)
VoteView 192.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 64-36 over Toni Gillhooley
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Frank Ryan
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Holden has won easily, even in this Republican district. Should be safe.
District: PA-18
Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Murphy (R)
VoteView 259
First elected 2002
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve O’Donnell
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Long shot
District: PA-19
Location Southern PA including Gettysburg map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Todd Platts (R)
VoteView 254
First elected 2000
2008 margin 67-33 over Phillip Avilo
2006 margin 91-4 against a Green
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 68th most Whites (92.2%)
Assessment Long shot
District: RI-01
Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Patrick Kennedy (D)
VoteView 89
First elected 1994
2008 margin 69-24 over Jon Scott
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 36-62
Current opponents John Loughlin
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: RI-02
Location Most of the state map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jim Langevin (D)
VoteView 146
First elected 2000
2008 margin 70-30 over Mark Zaccaria
2006 margin 73-27 against an independent
2004 margin 75-21
Obama margin 61-37
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Current opponents A primary challenge, and then Zaccaria again.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
A few notes on some of the races you talk about:
PA
3: It is probably too optimistic at this point to say that Kathy Dahlkemper “should be OK”. Given her freshman status, her narrow win last time in a strongly Democratic year, and the nature of the district, it seems inevitable that the Republicans will find a strong challenger here and make sure they have plenty of moneyshe is going to be one of their top targets in 2010. Expect a real race here.PA
4: This will probably be Jason Altmire’s toughest race to date– in this Republican leaning district he will always be a target. Melissa Hart probably isn’t running again, and instead it seems likely that State Rep. Mike Turzai will make the race. Turzai was fairly high profile during PA’s fiscal crisis (he is the Republican House Whip), and certainly has the political skills to be an effective fundraiser. Definitely keep this race on the radar, it could be one of our tougher seats to defend.PA
11: You ask “What happened between 2004 and 2008? ” Incumbent Kanjorksi has been associated with a number of scandals, allegations that he helped steer contracts to family businesses, and otherwise is perceived as kind of sleazy. (For the record, it is all allegation and perception, not proven.) 2008 challenger Lou Barletta is the Hazelton mayor who got a lot of national attention for his antiimmigration positions and he ran an aggressive campaign. Our best bet here may be Kanjorski stepping down or losing in a primary (either Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien or Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty) — even though this is good Democratic territory, he could definitely be vulnerable in a general election if 2010 isn’t a strong Democratic year.PA
12: A lot may have changed since 2008 for John Murtha. Fairly serious ethics questions have emerged (including some possible criminal investigation)– if things get worse for Murtha, he could be very vulnerable in either the primary and/or general election. especially in a district that is politically evenly divided. For years Murtha has been appreciated at home for his ability to bring home the appropriations bacon — but now that there is negative attention to so many of his earmarks and questions about favoritism to lobbyists/donors, this is not the asset it once was. (For the record, I was born in this district but didn’t grow up there and have many relatives still living in the area). I don’t know if Bucchianeri can mount a serious primary campaign, but if Murphy is renominated, he will be much more vulnerable than he was in 2008.PA – 15: This is an increasingly Democratic district represented by a Republican who has managed to win against unimpressive Democratic challengers in the past. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan was the DCCC’s dream candidate for the district and will be the strongest challenger Charles Dent has seen. This and PA-6 are are best pick-up opportunities in PA. Definitely better than just a long shot for us.
PA – 16: While I’d like to believe Lois Herr could be a strong challenger to Joe Pitts in this R +8 district, history suggests otherwise. Herr was the nominee in 06 and 04, and she couldn’t break 40% in either year. While there has been a slight Democratic trend here, Lancaster County is still too conservative to make a Democratic win at all likely here.
RI -2: Betsy Dennigan ( http://betsydenniganforcongres… ) is a strong primary challenger to Langevin. Unlike Jennifer Lawless (a college professor who lived in the state for only 2 years and challenged Langevin from the left in 2006 getting 38%), Dennigan is a RI native and an experienced State Representative. This is a safe Democratic district, the primary is what matters most here. Expect a very spirited primary here.
U forgot to put longshot in PA-05 and Lentz is definitely running in the 7th 🙂
That is not only the count in the narrative section but it happens to be correct. No, it would be unlikely to be 10 D, 8 R with 19 representatives (no vacancy unless you know something …)
Got me going there.
Used to live in PA-15 when it was represented by an idiot Democrat (Paul McHale) who voted to impeach Bill Clinton in the House. He actually retired due to self imposed term limits. Republicans have held the seat ever since (Toomey, Dent). Democrats in PA-15, at least the ones I knew, hated McHale and I sort of blame him for this D district being represented by a Republican. Maybe we finally have a good candidate here.
I think we’ll see Chris Carney and the new GOP congressman basically swap districts for 2012.