AR-Sen: Lincoln Running Neck and Neck With No-Name GOP Candidates

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (8/21-24, registered voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Gilbert Baker (R): 42

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Curtis Coleman (R): 41

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Tom Cotton (R): 39

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Ugly. Horrendously ugly. Any incumbent who’s failing to crack a higher mark than 40% against three C-grade GOP opponents with single-digit name ID is pretty far from being in a comfortable position for re-election. Her approvals, too, are underwater at 36-44.

While I’m sure that the NRSC will make an effort to get a better nominee in place than gaffe-prone crackpots like businessman Curtis Coleman or Kim Hendren, this poll suggests that the GOP could make a race of it even with a less than top-tier challenger.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

46 thoughts on “AR-Sen: Lincoln Running Neck and Neck With No-Name GOP Candidates”

  1. …these numbers just dont make sense to me.  I’m anxious to hea what the Arkansas residents who post on here have to say.

    I get the anti-Obama thing in the south but aren’t these numbers against “nobody” and “somebody” a bit too negative for Lincoln?

  2. I know this isn’t the most popular view here, but I wouldn’t necessarily lose sleep if Blanche Lincoln went down to defeat. Considering she’s probably been the worst Dem senator on healthcare after Nelson, and supports lousy policies like repealing the estate tax, she’s one of my least favorite Dems. I’d be much more upset at losing Dodd or even Harry Reid.

    At the end of the night, if we are still at 60 dems, but we’ve replaced Senator Lincoln with a Senator Hodes or a Senator Carnahan, I’d be thrilled.

    I think we’ve been a bit spoiled the past two cycles without having lost any Dem seats at all. While I don’t actively cheer for a Lincoln defeat, I am ambivalent. Just my two cents.  

  3. Considering PPP always have lower undecideds than most I don’t think panic stations are in order here. Health care is taking a toll on everybody’s numbers right now. When the topic changes and people focus on general economic improvements next year then this will pass. But I will say I could see a scenario where Blanche could lose while other Dems win, even in GOP open seats. I think AR has moved that fast because of Obama – fewer blacks in the state than the rest of the South, latent PUMA feelings and now birthers/deathers/teabaggers foaming at the mouth.

  4. Lincoln should start running positive bio ads.  She also needs to build up a huge money edge.  If that doesn’t work, who knows what will happen.  Arkansas is getting tougher and tougher.

  5. This is typical of a new President’s first midterm election. With the exception of the 2002 GOP tide under Bush, most incumbent parties end up losing seats in the first two years of a new president from the same party. I’m surprised that despite this trend against Democratic incumbents who should not be vulnerable, the party is still on track to pick up seats in Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, and possibly Kentucky. Count your blessings.

  6. I am not surprised by this.I have thought Lincoln could be

    In trouble considering how much antiObama most of the

    south Is.Unlike some I don’t see It as doom for Democrats.

    Especilly Is a health bill that Democrats like and Obama

    has a approval In the 50’s.

    At worse I can see Dodd,Lincoln,Reid,and Bennedt going down.If Castle runs In Delaware he could win but that Is

    a big If.And Republicans win the kentuckey seat and Burr

    hangs on In NC.We have good shots at winning Missouri,Ohio,and NH.  

  7. I’m not a big fan of Blanche Lincoln, but she is better for us than most other Arkansas politicians that don’t have last names like Clinton, Pryor, or Bumpers.  We need her to be reelected.

    What this poll is really stating is that the Arkansas electorate is pretty much torn between re-electing Lincoln vs. electing a generic Republican.  Richard Burr was having the same problem, although recently Burr’s had the wind at his back.

    I wouldn’t fret over these numbers….yet.  Arkansas has become a red state this decade, so we know we will have a fight on our hands.  I think our states that are vulnerable at this time include CT, CO, NV, IL, DE (only if Castle runs..which is doubtful in my mind), and AR.  We have good opportunities of picking up NH, OH, and MO, plus a decent chance at KY and NC.  I think LA will be an uphill battle comparative to Musgrove in MS last year.  I’m about to toss out any chance of winning FL, even if Rubio pulls off an unlikely upset.

    I say we will probably break even in 2010.  Worse case scenario is that we lose (net) 3 or 4 seats.  

  8. Although voters certainly didnt hate Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island in 2006, they knew he was a Republican and in the same party as George W. Bush and that was all that mattered.  I see the same thing happening to Lincoln.  Although voters certainly dont seem to dislike her strongly, she is a Democrat when the voters in the state probably want a Republicans to “check” Obama.  This is an arguement that I suspect will work for Republicans in the South.  I just thank heavens that Lincoln is the only Democratic incumbent Senator up in 2010 from the South.

    I dont even want to see what happens to poor Charlie Melancon if he decides to run against Vitter in Louisiana if a well-established incumbent like Lincoln cant even win reelection.  

  9. she won 56-44 in 2004 against a state rep who raised very little money.

    I don’t understand why. She’s ideologically the same as Pryor, maybe an inch to a left. Is it sexism? Does she just not do constituent services well? Is there some other explanation?

  10. those are terrific numbers.

    She’s tied with three people who nobody knows the negatives on, well gee, fine!  

    LOL, this is not Reid or Dodd numbers.

    Sure below 50% is not good, but those generic R numbers are not going up unless a strong candidate appears, and there aren’t any looming.

    Lincoln has a very simple road ahead of her… expose the flaws of her opponent.  

    Bottom line the poll says nothing because they didn’t poll Huck or Hutchinson or Boozman.  If she was ten points behind Boozman, that would say something.  If she was five points ahead of Boozman, that would say something, as would 10 points ahead of Hutchinson.

  11. The characterization of Tom Cotton as “C-list” is inappropriate — Cotton is the Arkansas-native and Harvard Law-graduate and attorney who left his successful Washington-DC practice to sign up to fight in Iraq. He then signed up for a second tour, this time in Afghanistan. Cotton also clerked for the Eighth Circuit, meaning if he had continued with his law career he probably could have become a federal judge.

    (When this fact made the news some nut-jobs on the far Left attempted to “prove” the non-existence of Cotton, disbelieving that any real person would quit a lucrative job to go to Iraq. They probably still disbelieve his existence.)

    Cotton is regarded as personable and charasmatic, interestingly, both in conservative circles and by the local media. Cotton also is well-connected in Washington-DC conservative legal circles, meaning he would have access to money if he ran. The only thing he is missing is name recognition but he otherwise suffers from no negatives at all.

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