The Tarrance Group for Mary Fallin (“June”, likely voters):
Drew Edmondson (D): 37
Mary Fallin (R): 53Jari Askins (D): 35
Mary Fallin (R): 54
(MoE: ±4%)
This poll is both dusty and Republican, but I could easily buy those numbers as reasonably accurate. Duplicating the Brad Henry Miracle of 2002 seems like a pretty tall order for a Democrat next year, especially in a state where the bottom has fallen out from under the national Democratic brand over the past two cycles. (Not to mention the gradual but persistent losses that Oklahoma Dems have accumulated on the state legislative level.)
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
RaceTracker Wiki: OK-Gov
Atty Gen. Edmondsen’s gotta be the better option, but I’m doubtful he’d be able to pull it out. But actually, Fallin’s seat in Congress is probably the single most capture-able in the state, if we have a solid candidate.
I’d offer Jim Roth as the best option. He lost a statewide race (to the OK Corporation Commission) after being appointed to the position, but only narrowly, 52-48, and he actually won the district in question. Previously he was a two-term Oklahoma County (where OK City is) Commissioner (re-elected with 63%). And being openly gay may actually help him in terms of turning out the Democratic base in a non-presidential year.
is Mr. Edmondson term-limited?
for I feel it would be better if he ran for re-election
2010 is going to be real ugly for us in OK.