This time, I’m doing what is most likely: a bipartisan incumbent protection gerrymander. Barring a major shift in the November election, in which Deeds wins and Democrats win the House of Delegates, there will have to be a compromise map. Here it is:
VA-01 (blue, Rob Wittman – R) – Wittman picks up all of Stafford and part of heavily-Republican Hanover and loses some of the counties that went for Obama, and the parts of Williamsburg and Newport News as well. Also picks up the more Republican part of Hampton from Glenn Nye, as well as the Eastern Shore. This may seem weird, but while the Eastern Shore is not physically connected to VA-01, it is culturally much more like parts of the district than Virginia Beach.
VA-02 (green, Glenn Nye – D) – Dropping the Republican parts of Virginia Beach and Hampton and picks up all of Norfolk, Portsmouth, most of Suffolk and the minority-heavy part of Chesapeake. I’ve actually gotten it to a coalition district, as it’s 49% white. Should be a safe district now, although Nye may not be safe from a primary challenge from the left unless he moves left accordingly.
VA-03 (purple, Bobby Scott – D) – Ladies and gentlemen, may I present a contiguous VA-03. Removing the Southside Hampton Roads parts of the district, I’ve added all of Newport News, Sussex/Greensville/Emporia, and Petersburg and the black parts of Hopewell. Remains 53% black.
VA-04 (red, Randy Forbes – R) – Losing the black parts of Chesapeake and parts of the district given to Bobby Scott, and adding the Republican parts of Virginia Beach and more of Chesterfield should make Forbes’ district more Republican.
VA-05 (yellow, Tom Perriello – D) – District shifts north to Northern Virginia. Dropped all the southern part of the district and pushed it up north to Prince William. The tradeoff for Perriello is having to run in the expensive DC media market.
VA-06 (Bob Goodlatte – R) – Didn’t change this district much, it just shifted south a bit.
VA-07 (grey, Eric Cantor – R) – Cantor’s district is possibly even more Republican now, taking in much of the heavily-Republican Southside counties and a few Democratic counties out of Wittman’s district instead of pushing northwest towards the Shenandoah Valley.
VA-08 (light purple, Jim Moran – D) – Alexandria, Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe Democratic.
VA-09 (light blue, Rick Boucher – D) – Picks up Danville and drops the Ronaoke area. Not much you can do for Rick.
VA-10 (magenta, Frank Wolf – R) – Dropping Prince William and going west into the Shenandoah Valley should make this district more Republican.
VA-11 (light green, Gerry Connolly – D) – Western Fairfax, should be safe Dem.
I think you’ve done a great job.
Some notes.
VA-01: I think that the Eastern Shore used to be in the 1st District, maybe back in the 1980s, so re-adding it to the 1st makes sense.
VA-02: While helping Nye makes sense, I’ll just throw out that I don’t know where he lives and I don’t know if he’d still be in the new district.
VA-05: Do you think there could be a way to do a pro-incumbent redistricting without putting Perriello in the more expensive DC market? A glance at the new VA-05 makes me think you’ve got at least four media markets- Charlottesville, Roanoke, Richmond, and DC. That’s a lot to juggle as a newer less entrenched member of Congress.
I think we’ll see something very much like this. Good job.
and replaced his district with a Republican-leaning Exurban/Rural district. I would be interested to see the numbers.
Anything that dilutes the ability to make the 10th more Democratic and flip to being a Democratic seat, as it should, is a bad deal for the Democrats….the 10th historically has always stretched down to Arlington. The 10th’s base is the Dulles corridor, and ought to remain so….the inclusion of all of Loudoun and the Dulles corridor in Fairfax (including Reston & Herndon) would absolutely mean a Democratic seat. In fact, Pereillo should pick up some of the more Democratic parts of the state downstate (around Roanoke/Blacksburg perhaps), and Goodlatte’s district should shift north, not south. Boucher can pull from southside too….I like your ideas in the Hampton Roads area though as they clearly solidify the 2nd as Democratic….but a little more fineggling could provide a Democratic 4th District too….
I know what you mean by incumbent preservation and a “bi-partisan” map, but if you think the GOP would let this map happen, I think you’ll see that won’t be the case–they are absolutely not going to weaken themselves in Hampton Roads…or diminish the size of the majority black district…in my opinion.