Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/31-9/2, likely voters):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 40
Danny Tarkanian (R): 45Harry Reid (D-inc): 41
Susan Lowden (R): 44
(MoE: ±4%)
These results match pretty well with recent internal surveys released by the camps of Lowden and Tarkanian, and also with Mason-Dixon’s latest survey of the state.
Now, some may say that Reid has a lot of room to grow due to his early inability to consolidate the Democratic vote (just 70% of Dem voters are committing themselves to his re-election so far, compared to over 80% of Republicans who are firmly voting against him), but I’d still call this “deep shit” territory. Reid’s going to be draining his war chest dry — and probably lean on the DSCC to help — even if the GOP nominates a third-stringer like Tarkanian or Lowden. Even if Reid manages to survive, it looks like it’ll be an ugly win.
RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen
Health Care reform passes (w/ strong public option), Reid resigns as Majority Leader to spend more time focusing on his constituents of Nevada (they are clear across the country or something and he needs to visit them more), Schumer becomes the new majority leader, Reid is narrowly re-elected and the guy who reminds me of LBJ takes over the Senate (Schumer and LBJ both have the hawk looking noses and head shapes).
I can dream.
Remember 1998? He was running against his now disgraced colleague John Ensign and ended up ahead by only 428 votes. I’m sure ol’ Harry is having a trip down memory lane at this moment, and thinking up every dirty trick he used back then and planning to resurrect them now.
Reid has basically pissed off about 45% of his constituents. In a lot of ways I think Mitch McConnell can relate to Reid’s woes. If memory serves me correctly, Lunsford got 47% of the vote against McConnell. In addition, McConnell was one of the few Senators that didn’t have to fight against the coattails of Obama. McCain outperformed McConnell in Kentucky.
Being Majority Leader is such a high-profile job that a Senator from a Purple State is just about impossible without pissing off the folks back home. Tom Daschle had the same problem in South Dakota (in all fairness, Daschle was in a true Red state at the time).
My main man Chuck should be elected as the next Majority Leader. The people in New York will support him in the role a lot better than the electorate in Nevada will support Reid.
Reid has other problems too. I don’t know if its really in his makeup to be the Majority Leader. To this observer, he seems to be led more by his caucus as opposed to him leading the caucus. I always thought he was more of a “face man” for the party.
I agree with another commentor that Reid should resign as majority leader once we pass some serious Health Care legislation.
“A president like Obama only comes once in a generation and I’m not going to miss this opportunity to make the change this country needs just because we have a weak Senate leadership.”
All we need is a credible candidate.
for Reid just to retire and allow Berkley or Titus to run? It’d be great to have both of them replace Reid and Ensign. (Berkley can have Reid’s seat, Titus Ensign’s.)