Public Policy Polling (9/2-8, registered voters, 8/4-10 in parens, Etheridge trendlines from May)
Cal Cunninghan (D): 30 (28)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42 (43)Kenneth Lewis (D): 27 (27)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (43)Elaine Marshall (D): 31 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42 (43)Kevin Foy (D): 29 (27)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (43)Bob Etheridge (D): 34 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 41 (47)Dennis Wicker (D): 31
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.0%)
In a nutshell, from Jensen:
The key take away from those numbers probably isn’t the variation in where the Democrats poll, which is largely a function of name recognition at this point, but in the lack of variability in Burr’s number. He’s at 41-43% against all comers, similar to how he was at 43% against four potential opponents we tested him against last month.
That speaks to the fact that it really might not matter who the Democratic candidate ends up being. With Burr’s numbers where they are, if the political climate moves back in a Democratic direction any candidate who can raise some money, has something to say and can avoid making a fool of themselves is probably going to beat him. But if things stay the way they are today, or move in a more Republican direction, none of them are going to beat him.
That reality is kind of reflected in how the generic ballot has moved in the last few months. In June, when Barack Obama’s approval rating was still pretty strong, Burr trailed a generic Democrat 41-38. Now he leads 45-38 on that question. His approval rating was mired in the 30s both then and now, but his prospects for reelection have improved as discontent with Obama and Congressional Democrats has risen.
RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen
Burr is trailing Marshal.
Both seem to have support in the low 40s.
No matter how you look at it, the optics are terrible for Burr. Nobody knows who he is, Erksine Bowles was a weak, intellectual candidate in a very Republican, anti-intellectual year, and once people find out that he’s more conservative than his constituents at large, most of those “don’t know”s turn into “Generic D”.
Plus, the DSCC has the front porch guys that were the most popular ad of the 2008 cycle nationwide, and they’d be damn fools not to bring ’em back for a shot or two at Burr come election time.
Regardless of my personal grudge against Burr (and I’m probably the only person in the entire country who has one), I think we’re going to win this race unless the Democrat screws it up horribly somehow.
If Democrats win we get another seat; if they lose they win record for worst campaign ever run in history.
Which Democrat who is running or most likely running is the most Liberal?
…but at least her core, far-right base remained loyal and enthuasiastic all along; Richard Burr isn’t firing anyone up. He’s a supremely lifeless Republican who beat a supremely lifeless Democrat to barely win him his first term, and now, he just has to hope his second Dem opponent is just as much a snooze. Or, that Obama’s approval rating is below 40% come November ’10.
My hunch is that the Dem primary could be very busy, and thus, the winner may wind up spending a decent amount of time just coalescing party support. Of course, the good news is that most of these contenders look more impressive than Kay Hagan did a year prior to her win.
She was a better candidate than most people expected. She was an increadible campaigner. In addition, she was the neice of popular senator/governor Lawton Chiles which gave her a lot of political connections and the ability to be a strong fundraiser. I still think that Burr will most likely loose but Kay Hagan was much more powerful than any generic dem running against Dole in North Carolina.
This seat used to be held by Sam Ervin of Watergate Committee fame. Ervin was reelected three times, however, since he retired in 1974, no one has been reelected to this seat.
1974 D Robert Morgan
1980 R John East
1986 D Terry Sandford
1992 R Lauch Faircloth
1998 D John Edwards
2004 R Richard Burr
Whenever the Democratic nominee is selected, they will unite the party and defeat Burr.