VA-Gov: Rasmussen Poll Has McDonnell Bouncing Back

Rasmussen (9/29, likely voters, 9/16):

Creigh Deeds (D): 42 (46)

Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (48)

Undecided: 7 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

In the great “Is it tightening or not?” debate of the Commonwealth of Virginia, Rasmussen has come down on the side of SurveyUSA after showing a tight race in their previous poll. PPP, InsiderAdvantage, the Washington Post, and Research 2000 have all shown narrowing margins in their most recent polls, but SUSA and Rasmussen are the freshest out of the oven. I don’t think we’ll have to wait long for yet another batch of Virginia polls to be released, though.

RaceTracker: VA-Gov

8 thoughts on “VA-Gov: Rasmussen Poll Has McDonnell Bouncing Back”

  1. taking 7% away from the Republican in Rasmussen polls to get a “real” poll.  I’m calling it the Rasmussen Shift.  So this one is 44-42 McDonnell.  Way to close the gap Deeds!

    I am waiting for at least one or two more polls for a trend here.  Both SUSA and Rasmussen, though both good on election eve, have a history of wild outliers in their polls coming significantly before election time.

  2. I don’t believe for one second the race has been as volatile as Rasmussen’s last three polls say it’s been.  Either the previous Rasmussen poll was an outlier, or this one is.

    The big thing this Rasmussen poll shows is Deeds in the high 20s with white voters and with independents.  If that were true, then Deeds would, indeed, be down by a big margin, as he needs about 40% of the white vote and maybe roughly the same share of independents to win.

    I suspect Rasmussen’s previous poll was unrealistically optimistic, and this one unrealistically pessimistic.  I tend to think it’s a mid-single-digit race and likely will stay that way.

    Political Wire speculates that the Rasmussen poll shift reflects Deeds’ poor post-debate media interview on transportation funding and taxes, and that video did really look bad.  But I haven’t seen it pushed very hard in NoVA.  Deeds did open himself up to a tax attack in his WaPo op-ed later by explicitly supporting a tax hike for transportation, but I doubt that would hurt him this much this quickly, as I don’t think the electorate is so hostile to taxes for fixing transportation problems that they really do want fixed–I figured it might hurt Deeds a little, but less so than refusing to address the matter at all, as was his previous tack.

  3. Does anyone think there were only two percent undecided?

    As for griping that SUSA and Rassmussen have wild outliers, hell, everyone does. been a volatile electorate generally since late 2005. and, since all any poll is a snapshot in time, there are going to be wild swings.

    Anyone remember McCain in March and August?

    Comparing a poll weeks out to actual results is a waste of time. A poll shows you where you are, not where you going to wind up.

    this is particularly marked in robos since they crank out so many one-nighters. never trust a one-nighter. heck, TV viewing patterns can skew results like mad.

    Anyway, Deeds has lost mo. Between the transportation screw-ups and Wilder kicking, he stalled his rise. Banked too much on the thesis and the question is if he has any arrows left in the quiver.

  4. Do not care what you think about the specifics of the campaigns, or nit-pick the ads, BUT watching 1-minute of Deeds explain how he is “not raising general fund taxes”, but is open to tax increases to pay for transporation (with the “i’m confused” look on his face, is horrible).  TOP IF OFF, he is rude and calls the reporter “young lady” (I forget all about that f-bomb thingy).

    I forget all about the thesis…then the ad with the group of women blah blah on how great McDonnell is really class.  The ad war from McDonnell is actually good, the defense of the thesis has actually been what seems like a turn-on-attack back at Deeds.

    Not to make this an anti-Deeds post, but as a netural observer, everything Deeds attacks McDonnell is turned back on him.  I do not agree with McDonnell on issues, but honestly Deeds is a horrible candidate.

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