SSP Daily Digest: 10/1

• NH-Sen: ARG, mateys! The New Hampshire-based pollsters find that Republican AG Kelly Ayotte is keelhauling Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in the Senate race, although with lots of undecideds: 41-34. This is their first look at the Ayotte/Hodes matchup. (UPDATE: Oh, come on… I just noticed that ARG also has Barack Obama’s NH approval at 34/57 and even Gov. John Lynch at 37/40. So take this poll with a mighty hunk o’ pirate salt.) Also today, Ayotte’s primary opposition is lining up. Businessman Jim Bender says he’s forming an exploratory committee, and Ovide Lamontagne is setting up a testing-the-waters 527 to raise funds.

• NV-Sen: Former state GOP chair, former one-term state Senator, former co-owner of the Sahara casino, and former Miss New Jersey 1973 Sue Lowden (and former Reid donor, back in the 1980s) is officially in the race against Harry Reid. Democrats are pointing to her close ties to John Ensign, while even tradmed pundits like Chris Cillizza are left wondering if her resume is “somewhat thin” for the task of going against Reid.

• VT-Gov: Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie announced today that he will run for the Republican nomination for the open gubernatorial race in Vermont. His previous silence on the issue since Jim Douglas’s retirement announcement had suggested he wasn’t going to run, but now apparently he’s all in. Dubie is socially conservative (at least by Vermont standards), so if he’s the standard bearer (and this probably means that recent party-switching Auditor Tom Salmon, who said he wouldn’t run if Dubie ran, won’t run now) that may improve Dem odds at picking up the seat. Of course, Dem odds mostly turn on what the Progressive Party does.

• GA-12: Two developments in the 12th, where Rep. John Barrow is already facing two Republicans (doctor and self-proclaimed top recruit Wayne Mosely, and Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith). A third GOPer, Savannah party activist Jeanne Seaver, is also getting into the field. And on Barrow’s left, former state Sen. Regina Thomas is considering another primary run. Although Blue Dog Barrow should theoretically be vulnerable to a challenge from an African-American Democrat in this almost half-black district, Thomas pulled in only 24% of the primary vote in a seemingly underfunded and underplanned challenge last year. (H/t TheUnknown285.)

• NC-11: This might be a slightly more imposing challenge to Rep. Heath Shuler than the guy who promised to serve only one term: Jeff Miller, a Hendersonville businessman who received a Presidential Citizens Medal for his work taking WWII veterans to Washington DC to see the WWII war memorial. Miller is “contemplating” the race.

• OR-05: Sad to say, it looks like we won’t have Mike Erickson to make fun of again next year; the GOP found a somewhat more viable challenger to freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader. State Rep. Scott Bruun says he’ll run; he says he has a “moderate middle sensibility” (which plays well in his wealthy corner of the Clackamas County suburbs, but may subject him to a primary challenge from elsewhere). Bruun ran in 1996 against Earl Blumenauer in the dark-blue 3rd and lost by a wide margin. Getting down into the weeds, his departure also opens up HD 37, the kind of suburban district that Democrats in the state legislature have been vacuuming up in the last few cycles.

• PA-04: Disregard what I said yesterday; don’t quite count out state House minority whip Mike Turzai yet. Despite the entry of lawyer Keith Rothfus to the GOP field yesterday, Turzai notified the media that he’s still considering a run against Rep. Jason Altmire, but is currently preoccupied by the budget stalemate in Harrisburg and will decide later.

67 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/1”

  2. …I feel like the race is either a tie or a slight Ayotte lead at this point. I doubt she’s quite up in the high single-digits, but nevertheless, she’s probably benefitting from Team Hodes being completely lifeless (at this point). That being said…I suspect this one could be a real barn-burner, and I imagine if Hodes can run a halfway decent campaign, he’ll probably pull it off. It’s very competitive though.

  6. CONGRATULATIONS TO BRIAN DUBIE ON HIS DECISION TO RUN FOR GOVERNOR OF VERMONT 2010,

    BUT…

    I hereby announce that I am running against him.

    I have been on the official election ballot for Governor of Vermont 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008

    and I will be on the official election ballot

    for Governor of Vermont 2010.

    Why?  If I think Lt. Governor Brian Dubie is such a wonderful candidate for Governor 2010,

    then WHY? am I running against him?

    I’ll tell you why!

    He won’t do anything to help MAKE MARIJUANA LEGAL!

    I WILL!

    THE GOVERNOR CAN GRANT PARDONS, FOR ONE THING.

    Now, I want to make some suggestions to the Vermont Republican Party, a bunch of insincere arrogant creeps from my poor perspective.

    #1 If the Republican Party of Vermont keeps behaving in a demeaning, insulting manner to poor people in Vermont, hey, guess what?  you won’t get poor peoples’ votes!

    #2 If the Republican Party of Vermont keeps behaving in a demeaning and insulting manner to disabled people, hey, again, and I know there are starving horses in Vermont who need that hAy,

    you won’t get their votes.

    #3 Guess what?  The Democrats are even MORE GUILTY than the Republicans of insulting and demeaning behaviour towards poor and disabled people, so, guess what again,

    THE REPUBLICANS CAN WIN IF THEY CHANGE THEIR WAYS!

    #4 Despite the fact that 1% of Vermonters are Jewish and there are other religious groups in Vermont, like Muslims, many Vermonters are Christian.  So, regardless of any particular candidates religion, each candidate should memorize this New Testament Bible quotation:

    St. James the Apostle

    Chapter 2

    Impartiality

    But you have dishonored the poor man.

    Do not the rich use their power to oppress you,

    and do they not drag you before judgment-seats?

    Do they not blaspheme the good name by which you are called?

    If, however, you fulfill the royal law, according to the Scriptures,

    “Thou shalt love thy neighbor as thyself,” you do well.

    But IF YOU SHOW PARTIALITY TOWARDS PERSONS, YOU COMMIT SIN.

    THAT’S THE BOTTOM LINE.

    THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ARE SINNERS

    BECAUSE THEY CONSPIRE

    TO EXCLUDE OTHER CANDIDATEs

    WHO ARE ON THE OFFICIAL ELECTION BALLOT

    FROM DEBATES AND FORUMS.

    FOR EVERY SINGLE DEBATE AND FORM FOR WHICH

    I AM EXCLUDED FROM,

    AND I HAVE A LOT OF EXPERIENCE

    2002, 2004, 2006, 2008

    OF BEING EXCLUDED,

    YOU WILL NEVER

    HEAR THE END OF IT.

    IF MEGA MILLION DOLLAR POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS

    WERE CONSIDERED THE BUSINESS

    THAT THEY REALLY ARE,

    BUSINESS OF AND BY AND FOR CORPORATIONS

    THROUGH THEIR PACS,

    THEN EXCLUDING ANY CANDIDATE

    FROM ANY DEBATE OR FORUM

    WOULD BE AN

    ILLEGAL

    ANTI-TRUST

    VIOLATION.

    MS. CRIS ERICSON

    879 CHURCH STREET

    CHESTER, VERMONT 05143-9375

    (802)875-4038

    http://CRISERICSON.COM

    oh, and keeping this all friendly,

    I do think it is really nice for our Vermont baby Eagle,

    Brian Dubie, to take a flying leap out of his nest and soar higher.

  7. The assessment that in the Vermont gubernatorial race “…Dem odds mostly turn on what the Progressive Party does” misses the reality of Vermont politics.

    While there is no question that the Progressive Party here makes for a more complicated electoral calculus than in other states, it is a mistake to assume that the Progressives hold the fate of the Democratic candidate in their hands.

    It is highly unlikely the Progressive Party will run a high profile nominee for Governor in 2010 — past nominee Anthony Pollina seems very likely to run for the state Senate rather than another statewide run. State legislator David Zuckerman says he will either run for Lt Gov or state Senate. No other prominent Progressive is being rumoured as a candidate at this point, and Progressive party leadership have made it very clear they have no strong desire to field a gubernatorial candidate. They have been meeting with Democratic candidates and seem very open to some kind of fusion approach to 2010.

    In only one case has a statewide Democratic candidate has ever lost a race to a Republican because of a Progressive candidate. (That was in 2002, when Brian Dubie was first elected Lt Governor with 41% of the vote, with Democrat Peter Shumlin getting 32% and Progressive Anthony Pollina winning 25%).

    Even in his first election in 2002 when Douglas won with 45% to 42% for former Lt Governor Doug Racine, the major third candidate in the race (10%) was independent Conrad Hogan, a former Republican cabinet secretary and businessman, not a Progressive. The Progressive nominee took only  0.6% of the vote.  The Republican Douglas won largely as voters were tired of Howard Dean’s long time in office and the well-known Douglas seemed like a moderate non-ideological change.

    After his first election, Republican Governor Jim Douglas won with a majority of the vote, whether it was one-on-one against a Democrat or with a Progressive candidate in the race.

    In 2004 and 2006, there was no Progressive nominee.  In 2004 the Democratic nominee was the Progressive mayor of Burlington, who could only manage 38% of the total vote in a very Democratic year.   In 2008 the Progressive candidate Anthony Pollina (21.8%)  barely edged  the weak Democratic nominee (21.7%) , but Douglas still received more than 53%

    Democratic odds of picking up the Vermont Governor’s seat in 2010 depends on 2 things:

    1.) Successfully building Brian Dubie’s negatives early on in the campaign. This means painting Brian Dubie in voter’s minds as right wing and out of the mainstream of Vermont’s left of centre ethos. He will do everything he can to sound like an non-ideological, non-partisan consensus-builder -while the reality is that he is quite right wing for a statewide office holder in Vermont.

    Similarly, it will be import to question his record as Lt Gov, where he has been a part-time office holder with no significant accomplishments. (His most high profile activity was a petition drive for a “Megan’s Law” in Vermont following a horrific sex crime and murder of a young girl – a definite example of him jumping to the front of a parade and claiming to be the leader). His other job (as a commercial airline pilot) has meant he spends half of his time out of state, and he was very actively and visibly job hunting out of state a year ago).

    The challenge on driving up his negatives will come because of a contested Democratic primary, meaning that the party and prominent Democrats not running for Governor will have to take the lead on developing these story lines on Dubie. (Complicated even more by the fact that overt negative campaigns have a history of back-firing in Vermont, requiring a well-tuned message).

    2.) The Democrats need to make sure their primary doesn’t become too divisive. The primary won’t take place until September 2010, so there won’t be much time to mend fences afterward.

    Right now there are 3 announced candidates – the front-runners being Secretary of State Deb Markowitz and State Senator (former Lt Governor) Doug Racine, with State Senator Susan Bartlett also running. But the field is likely to become more crowded, with State Senate President Peter Shumlin probably jumping in, as well as possible candidacies by former state Senator Matt Dunne, State Treasurer Jeb Spaulding, and other possible candidates. All of the candidates bring different strengths in terms of campaign skills, name recognition, geographic base, etc. (Interestingly, both Shumlin and Dunne have previously lost races to Dubie for Lt Governor, while Racine defeated him for the post in 2000).

    Obviously a 5 or 6 way late primary could make party unity a challenge for the general election campaign – although highly negative campaigns generally don’t do well in Vermont and the candidates will probably try not to go too overtly negative on each other.

    The Democrats’ chances in 2010 in Vermont depend entirely on what we do, not on the Progressive Party’s actions.

  8. Is there no Democrat in Nevada that has enough spine to mount a Primary challenge against Reid?

    We are going to lose this seat if he stays there, and I would really rather see him leave quite frankly, but with 55% of this state going to Obama in 2008, this is more than PA, this state needs real progressive representation.

  10. Scott would have been a great candidate in 2008, he’s an old school fairly moderate R.  However, not only is he now not likely to make the R base happy (OR 5 has a lot of the crazies in the state) but Schrader is popular.  I think Kurt will still win this by 5-10% and we may well pick up Bruun’s state house seat, which we narrowly lost in 2008.

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